Amateurs attempt to make a forecast while professionals manage information to make decisions based on probabilities. Dr. Alexander Elder compares this to a Doctor that received a patient with a knife stabbed in his chest. The family will ask, “will he survive?” and “when can he go home?” But the Doctor is not forecasting, he must prevent the patient from dying, remove the knife, saturate the organs and carefully watch for an infection. He monitors the health trend of the patient and takes measures to prevent any complications. He is managing, not forecasting. To profit in trading you do not need to forecast the future, you need to derive from the market whether the bulls or bears are in control. You need to practice money management techniques for long term survival. You trade against the sharpest mind in the ocean-like markets. Mental discipline is an undivided part of trading. Please remember the following points: Understand you are in the market for the long term, that you want to be a trader in even 20 years from now Develop your trading strategy, either technical or fundamental analysis. If “x” happens then “y “is therefore likely to take place. You may need different tools for trading a bull or a bear market Develop a money management plan, with the first goal being long term survival. Secondary goal is steady money growth and third goal would be high profits. Successful traders do not concentrate on the profit itself but maintaining successful trades regardless of the earned amount. Winners feel, think and act different than losers. Look inside yourself, eliminate the illusions and change the way you have been thinking and acting. Changing is hard but could pave the way to becoming a successful trader. |
Archives of “fundamental analysis” tag
rssTrading Wisdom by Larry Hite & Marty Schwartz
Larry Hite
While the speculator doesn’t have the product knowledge or speed, he does have the advantage of not having to play. The speculator can choose to only bet when the odds are in his favor. That is an important positional advantage.
In the above quote, Larry is referring to the fact that smaller retail traders have the advantage of being able to sit out an wait patiently for the best opportunities. Bigger institutional traders have to trade more and whilst they might have a speed advantage, the retail trader has to use his advantage of being able to trade like a sniper to its fullest.
Frankly, I don’t see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money.
The above quote stresses the importance of seeing each trade as a risk reward ratio, rather than just a potential profit opportunity. Pro traders calculate their risk first and then their reward, if the risk reward ratio of a trade doesn’t make sense then they don’t trade.
Marty Schwartz
I always laugh at people who say, “I’ve never met a rich technician.” I love that! It’s such an arrogant, nonsensical response. I used fundamentals for nine years and got rich as a technician. (more…)
Technical Analysis Fact and Fiction
“Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo…
“There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.
“For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.
“Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behaviors. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.”
– Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards
Bruce Kovner pulled billions out of the markets, over multiple decades, before handing the reins of his fund, Caxton Associates, to the next generation of traders.
As an academic in a past life, Kovner was known for his deep dive fundamental analysis — but he also used charts extensively, as the Market Wizards excerpt shows. (more…)
Lessons for traders
- Price goes up or down, from point A to point B, due to fundamental conditions. Hence we must understand fundamentals. However, the path price takes is not direct; it is driven by the news and emotions of the day. That’s where technical analysis shines.
- Don’t bet big on any trade.
- Use money management, nothing is more important to survival.
- Fade the advisors and public; they are most often wrong while the commercials [the big guys] are most often correct.
- Don’t let emotions run your trading game.
- Trade what you see, not what someone tells you that you should be seeing. Forget the news; trade what you see.
Technical Analysis Fact and Fiction
“Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo…
“There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.
“For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge. (more…)
Nicolas Darvas Quotes
Discipline:
“I knew now that I had to keep rigidly to the system I had carved out for myself.”
Risk/Reward:
“I was successful in taking larger profits than losses in proportion to the amounts invested.”
Exiting profitable trades:
“I decided to let my stop-loss decide.”(Speaking on when to exit an up trending stock)
Bear Markets
“I also learned to stay out of bear markets unless my individual stocks remain in their boxes or advance.” (more…)
Trading – a game of probability
A big part of trading is a probability game. The market can move any directions and many times against all logic and fundamentals for a period of time.
An edge in trading is the ability to have winning probabilities on your side.
Most people cannot distinguish between luck and skill when it comes to forecasting the market. At the best, I am right 70% of the time on fundamentals, 50% on the timing of the trade but I am making money on >80% of the trades.
I acknowledge I do not know how to predict the market timing with certainty. The process of trading is replete with errors and thus one has to cater for it.
Apparent randomness in the market is so complex that it cannot be managed with my finite mind.
So here are some ways that help me to handle the random behaviour of the market: (more…)
Trading Wisdom from Market Wizards
Michael Marcus
“The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that hte fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone. For example, a bull market should shrug off bearish news. If you can restrict your activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.”
“I think to be in the upper echelon of successful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It’s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn.”
“Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers.”
Bruce Kovner
“The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.”
On asking which is better, technical analysis or fundamental analysis, he answered, “That is like asking a doctor whether he would prefer treating a patient with diagnostics or with a chart monitoring his condition. You need both. But, if anything, the fundamentals are more important now. In the 1970s, it was a lot easier to make money using technical anaylsis alone. There were far fewer false breakouts. Nowadays, everybody is a chartist, and there are a huge number of technical trading systems. I think that change has made it much harder for the technical trader.”
Advice to novice traders: “First, I would say that risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least half.” “They personalize the market. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Whenever a trader says, “I wish,” or “I hope,” he is engaging in a destructive way of thinking because it takes attention away from the diagnostic process.”
Richard Dennis
“when you start, you ought to be as bad a trader as you are ever going to be.”
“I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people. What they couldn’t do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.”
“my research on individual stocks shows that price fluctuations are closer to random than they are in commodities. Demonstrably, commodities are trending and, arguably, stocks are random.”
“There will come a day when easily discovered and lightly conceived trend-following systems no longer work. It is going to be harder to develop good systems.”
“The secret is being as short term or as long term as you can stand, depending on your trading style. It is the imtermediate term that picks up the vast majority of trend followers. The best strategy is to avoid the middle like the plague.” (more…)
Knowledge
 A trader must put in the time and effort to study and learn the proper skills in order to be successful. Whether that is through technical or fundamental analysis, one must invest in their education. They must completely understand their market, and its ideal as a beginner to focus on one market and be a specialist. A part of the knowledge and education is devising a game plan or strategy for trading. Writing down your rules and sticking to your trading plan is a key to success. |
10 Thoughts from Mark Douglas
1. The four trading fears
95% of the trading errors you are likely to make will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table – the four trading fears
2. The proverbial empathy gap
You may already have some awareness of much of what you need to know to be a consistently successful trader. But being aware of something doesn’t automatically make it a functional part of who you are. Awareness is not necessarily a belief. You can’t assume that learning about something new and agreeing with it is the same as believing it at a level where you can act on it.
3. The market doesn’t generate happy or painful information
From the markets perspective, it’s all simply information. It may seem as if the market is causing you to feel the way you do at any given moment, but that’s not the case. It’s your own mental framework that determines how you perceive the information, how you feel, and, as a result, whether or not you are in the most conducive state of mind to spontaneously enter the flow and take advantage of whatever the market is offering. (more…)