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Trading – a game of probability

A big part of trading is a probability game. The market can move any directions and many times against all logic and fundamentals for a period of time. 
An edge in trading is the ability to have winning probabilities on your side.
Most people cannot distinguish between luck and skill when it comes to forecasting the market. At the best, I am right 70% of the time on fundamentals, 50% on the timing of the trade but I am making money on >80% of the trades.
I acknowledge I do not know how to predict the market timing with certainty. The process of trading is replete with errors and thus one has to cater for it.
Apparent randomness in the market is so complex that it cannot be managed with my finite mind. 
So here are some ways that help me to handle the random behaviour of the market: (more…)