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IMF: Dollar Carry-Trade Creating Bubbles Around The World

imf-global data

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Read a PDF of the IMF’s recent report here.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted the fact that low interest rates in the U.S., plus an apparent “one-way” bet against the dollar has created a global dollar carry-trade that is driving capital flows into emerging markets.

If not handled properly, this will lead to emerging market asset bubbles, which arguably have already begun to inflate.

We’ve highlighted before how places like Hong Kong are seeing property prices go through the roof due to low U.S. interest rates. (more…)

ALERT :RBI Tax to dry FII Tap ?

taxForeign investors funneled more than $15 billion to Indian equities in 2009, sending stocks up more than 75% and strengthening the rupee . With expected positive growth rates for the year and higher interest rates differentials that favor emerging markets, investors are looking to India as a good place to stash their wealth.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already taken the necessary precautions to stave off a potential asset bubble forming in India’s stock and real estate markets. India’s officials are welcoming the fund inflows with open arms, but Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee says monetary tools will be implemented if inflows become disruptive to the economy.

RBI could stem inflows by:

We are expecting very soon by Next month or First week Jan’10

  • Imposing taxes on inflows; this is considered to be the most likely tactic the government would take, especially when it comes to inflows that could lead to a housing bubble
  • Auctioning quotas for foreign credit to increase the cost of raising funds
  • Using market intervention bonds and raising cash reserve ratios

Key Lessons For All Traders

Find a Trading Method That Fits Your Personality

Traders must find a methodology that fits their own beliefs and talents. A sound methodology that is very successful for one trader can be a poor fit and a losing strategy for another trader. Colm O’Shea, one of the global macro managers I interviewed, lucidly expressed this concept in answer to the question of whether trading skill could be taught:

If I try to teach you what I do, you will fail because you are not me. If you hang around me, you will observe what I do, and you may pick up some good habits. But there are a lot of things you will want to do differently. A good friend of mine, who sat next to me for several years, is now managing lots of money at another hedge fund and doing very well. But he is not the same as me. What he learned was not to become me. He became something else. He became him.

Trade Within Your Comfort Zone

If a position is too large, the trader will be prone to exit good trades on inconsequential corrections because fear will dominate the decision process. Steve Clark, an event driven manager, advises, you have to “trade within your emotional capacity.” Similarly, Joe Vidich, a long/short equity manager warns, “Limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgment.”

In this sense, a smaller net exposure may actually yield better returns, even if the market ultimately moves in the favorable direction. For example, Martin Taylor, an emerging markets equities manager, came into 2008 with a very large net long exposure in high beta stocks in an increasingly risky market. Uncomfortable with the level of his exposure, Taylor sharply reduced his positions in early January. When the market subsequently plunged later in the month, he was well positioned to increase his long exposure.

Had Taylor remained heavily net long, he might instead have been forced to sell into the market weakness to reduce risk, thereby missing out in fully participating in the subsequent rebound.  (more…)

Lessons from Lehman: ‘Don’t Panic’

WEEKEND-READINGWarren Buffett is not called the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ for nothing.

‘Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful’ is good investment advice looking back at the turmoil of September 2008.

The demise of Lehman Brothers five years ago marked the start of a truly fearful six months for investors. Only in March 2009 had risky asset prices fallen far enough for bargain-hunting buyers to begin picking up equities and lower-quality bonds.

On the anniversary this weekend of Lehman’s collapse, those investors who stayed the course in equities and junk bonds can afford a smile. The S&P 500 index has gained 50 per cent.

They have done well, though alternative bets made in 2008, such as buying a New York City taxicab medallion, have done even better. (more…)

10 worst performing stock markets in 2014

10. Malaysia – Bursa Malaysia stock exchange

Loss in 2014: -10pc

How to access this market: The best route to this stock market is via the iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF, which tracks the up and down movements of shares listed in Malaysia. 

9. Mexico – Bolsa Mexicana de Valores SAB de CV stock exchange

Loss in 2014: -12pc

How to access this market: One option is to buy a fund that has a significant chunk of its money in Mexican shares, such as the Blackrock Latin American Investment trust, which has around 30pc of its money in the country. Alternatively there is SPDR MSCI Mexico Quality Mix ETF and the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF. 

8. Brazil – Bovespa stock exchange (more…)

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