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G. C. Selden Trading Psychology – Hunches And Gut Feelings

Recently most traders probably have spent a great deal of time managing risk and emotions. I know I have. When it comes to correctly gauging and dealing with emotions it is paramount to analyze your reactions in a detached way. The best way to get objective insight is to imagine taking a step back and then ‘watching yourself.’ It’s as if you were your own mentor or trading coach. This is not an easy task. Good results require emotional detachment, a lot of experience and the ability to honestly assess the degree of trading proficiency you have attained. Ultimately it will tell you what those gut feelings you are occasionally experiencing really are worth. That’s exactly what G.C. Selden addresses at the end of his classic trading book : ‘Psychology of the Stock Market’ which was first published in 1912. Here’s an excerpt dealing with ‘hunches and gut feelings.’ Lots of additional and valuable insight for traders is provided. Enjoy! 

An exaggerated example of “getting a notion” is seen in the so-called “hunch.” This term appears to mean, when it means anything, a sort of sudden welling up of instinct so strong as to induce the trader to follow it regardless of reason. In many cases, the “hunch” is nothing more than a strong impulse.

Almost any business man will say at times, “I have a feeling that we ought not to do this,” or “Somehow I don’t like that proposition,” without being able to explain clearly the grounds for his opposition. Likewise the “hunch” of a man who has watched the stock market for half a lifetime may not be without value. In such a case it doubtless represents an accumulation of small indications, each so trifling or so evasive that the trader cannot clearly marshal and review them even in his own mind. (more…)

Ignore Your Guts

In my studies I have often found something that is rather interesting and maybe different than most would suspect. The most successful traders I have studied don’t rely on gut calls or feels, but rather adhere to a disciplined set of rules or guidelines and are humbled enough to admit that their emotional decisions aren’t consistent enough to hold up during the heat of the moment.

Ironically, most would think just the opposite that the more successful a trader is, the more ‘feel’ he or she has or the more ‘instinct.’ Sure, it looks macho to make calls or predictions and when proven correct a person is often praised and viewed as having some superior knowledge, but in reality these people are one step below those that have already moved through this stage and left it behind.

As an individual trader it is simply impossible to remain emotionless, making the proper trading decisions at all times, when the action is heated. Even when there is a lull, our emotions kick in and we feel a change is needed or something should be done, when in reality our rules may say to stay put or do nothing.

How does the mind of a trader work?

MindpowerIn order to understand behavioral finance and crowd behavior on the capital market, first of all we need to understand the factors that influence the trader mindset. Traders are “misled” by many things. Let us put these factors in two main categories, depending simply on their source, external or internal.

The most important external factor is “everyone else”, the trading crowd, the general opinion. We form an opinion about the others. We believe them to be either smart or stupid, either right or wrong, then choose one of the two main psychological trading strategies: “go along to get along” or be a contrarian. Then we have other external factors like payoffs, scale, psychological and academic background, social structure, external advisory and resources. (more…)

Trading Quotes from Trading Books

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”

Comparing Paper Trading vs. Real Trading
“Are you a good shot?” “I can snap the stem of a wine glass at twenty paces” “That’s all well, but can you snap the stem of a wine glass while the wine glass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?”

“A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips. If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip, I must sell those stocks on Smith’s tip. I am depending on him”

“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he’ll soon have no job to be on”

“The more I made, the more I spent. This is the usual experience with most men. No, not necessarily with easy-money pickers, but with every human being who is not a slave of the hoarding instinct. Some men, like old Russell Sage, have the money-making and the money-hoarding instinct equally well developed, and of course they die disgustingly rich”

“If a stock doesn’t act right, don’t touch it; because being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit”

“The big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend” (more…)

Placing Time Limits On Reading Others

This Mail recieved from one of the Trader !Q:  It seems like the more I read different analysis and opinions of the market the worse I trade. Is this common? When I just stick to my basic chart-reading and my own instinct I do better. When I take advice and trade off of another’s opinion, the trade seems to fail. What’s up with this?

A:  There’s a Danish proverb that says that “he who builds according to every man’s advice will have a crooked house.” The same is true with trading and the experience you share is quite common.

While there are some excellent role models out there to read and learn from, it takes time and lots of experience to be able to properly filter through the noise and learn how to recognize subjective and/or faulty analysis. It really is a unique skill and one that is not very common unless you’ve been at it for awhile and/or developed that skill through your education and career.

Although most traders don’t feel confident about their strategies to be able to trade in complete isolation (at least not for very long), there is a tremendous benefit from doing so. In my view, traders are now being flooded with too much real-time data, information, and opinions and they’re struggling to cope, make sense of it, and then focus on what matters. Remember, more information and analysis does not translate into better performance and we all have to place strict time limits on the energy we devote to reading the thoughts of others. Instead of visiting hundreds of websites and watching Blue Channels…Just visit this blog nothing else

Should You Trust Your Trading Intuition?

I’ve heard from many traders that they often take decisions based on instincts. Actually, all non-quants use intuition in some form or another. If you are not using a program that takes all signals that your system produces, how do you decide between several equally good looking trading setups with similar risk to reward? Do you take them all or do you concentrate on only a few? The odds are that you are doing the latter and your ultimate choice for capital allocation is subconscious.

Even though we are defined by our decisions, we are often completely unaware of what’s happening inside our heads during the decision-making process.
Feelings are often an accurate shortcut, a concise expression of decades’ worth of experience.
The process of thinking requires feeling, for feelings are what let us understand all the information that we can’t directly comprehend. Reason without emotion is impotent.
This is an essential aspect of decision-making. If we can’t incorporate the lessons of the past into our future decisions, then we’re destined to endlessly repeat our mistakes.

Nothing can replace personal experience: (more…)

Two quotes from :REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR

Doing The Right Thing

The professional concerns himself with doing the right thing rather than with making money, knowing that the profit takes care of itself if the other things are attended to. A trader gets to play the game as the professional billiard player does—that is, he looks far ahead instead of considering the particular shot before him. It gets to be an instinct to play for position.

Price Tendency

You watch the market—that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape—with one object: to determine the direction—that is, the price tendency. Prices, we know, will move either up or down according to the resistance they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline; and vice versa.

Ignore Your Guts

In my studies I have often found something that is rather interesting and maybe different than most would suspect. The most successful traders I have studied don’t rely on gut calls or feels, but rather adhere to a disciplined set of rules or guidelines and are humbled enough to admit that their emotional decisions aren’t consistent enough to hold up during the heat of the moment.

Ironically, most would think just the opposite that the more successful a trader is, the more ‘feel’ he or she has or the more ‘instinct.’ Sure, it looks macho to make calls or predictions and when proven correct a person is often praised and viewed as having some superior knowledge, but in reality these people are one step below those that have already moved through this stage and left it behind.

As an individual trader it is simply impossible to remain emotionless, making the proper trading decisions at all times, when the action is heated. Even when there is a lull, our emotions kick in and we feel a change is needed or something should be done, when in reality our rules may say to stay put or do nothing.

Winning Attitude

winningattitudeOne of the most important tools that a trader possesses is his or her mind. Attitude can either make or break you as a trader.

To become a successful trader it begins with believing in yourself and having a winning attitude.

Everyone wants to be a winner, at least they think so. Unfortunately, most are not willing to perform the tasks necessary to become a consistent winner.

Winners generally achieve success by being focused on a goal. Being focused allows winners to remain committed to the tasks at hand. Most winners perform a lot of hard work, including a willingness to deal with sometimes mundane duties. Most of all, winners perform with an “I am responsible for both my failures and successes” attitude. (more…)