Will Japan Be the Next Debt Crisis?

Japan may spark the next global debt crisis unless the nation’s new leader addresses its widening fiscal deficit, Kusano Global Frontier Co. said.

What is bothering foreign investors the most is Japan’s debt issue and the related risk of Japan triggering the next sovereign debt crisis,” Kusano said in an interview.

Japan’s 10-year yields have stayed mostly below 2 percent in the past decade partly because domestic investors hold over 90 percent of government debt, according to Kusano. Overseas investors will start avoiding Japanese bonds as the supply of the securities exceeds local demand, Kusano said.

Japan’s inability to finance its debt sales domestically is approaching,” Kusano said. “And when that time comes, you can’t expect foreign investors to accept Japanese debt with such a low coupon

Subbarao fears fiscal deficit to fuel next crisis


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, Duvvuri Subbarao, expressed fear that the next financial debacle could stem from a currency crisis or from the way the government handles its ‘stimulus exit’. Speaking at the first International Research Conference organised by RBI here on Saturday, Subbarao said,

“I worry that in resolving this financial crisis, perhaps we are sowing the seeds of the next crisis. Next crisis could be a currency or a fiscal crisis.” The central banker, however, denied that RBI would back out from its commitment to full convertibility of rupee but would impart flexibility to its pre-determined course in the light of the recent global economic developments.

Participating in a panel discussion, the RBI governor said the developed economies may fail to wind down their borrowings, leading to cyclical deficits morphing into ‘structural fiscal deficits’, affecting the system as a whole. In the wake of global credit crisis, following the US sub-prime crisis in 2008, many governments and central banks pumped in huge funds and resorted to low-interest-rate monetary policies, for boosting their sagging economies. These have resulted in bloating of fiscal deficits. (more…)

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