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Greed

  
  Education
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 Small excerpt is from the book: ‘Wall Street. Its Mysteries Revealed: Its Secrets Exposed’ published in New York, 1921 by William C. Moore. The book contains short and to the point chapters like: ‘The crowd mind’, ‘How the public speculates’, ‘Mental suggestion’ and‘Market advice’ to name but a few. I chose the one on ‘Greed’ as I consider it great advice and timeless wisdom. Enjoy.

Greed p. 123-124

An avaricious or keen desire for profits is one of the most prevalent causes of failure inspeculation. This weakness is general among traders. They desire “just a little more ” profit. If the stock or commodity bought advances, then that’s proof to them that it will advance further and so they hang on. They usually overstay and thus miss their market. If they fail to obtain the top price and it reacts, then they assure or console themselves by the expression: “Oh, it will come back.” It may “come back” but often it does not, and instead, declines to below the purchase price and frequently results in a loss. The same observations apply to a short sale for a further anticipated decline. It is a good policy to be satisfied with a reasonable profit and be willing to leave some for the other fellow. The market is always there and other opportunities for making profits will present themselves while the greedy trader is waiting to get the last eighth.

Greed leads to disaster in another way. A speculator has started in to buy at the inception of a bull movement. He makes money. The more he makes, the more avaricious he becomes as the market moves forward. His confidence in himself increases until he develops a mental state known in the vernacular as “big head” or “swelled head”. He now has unbounded confidence in himself and “plays the limit”. Soon thereafter the market culminates at the top and the trend reverses, but Mr. Swelled Head is ignorant of this, so continues to buy on set-backs instead of selling on rallies. A drastic slump follows and Mr. B.H. goes to the scrap pile – BUSTED.

Federer’s Loss is Our Gain

  
  Education
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Always something to learn when Federer is clearly beaten which can be applied to markets, especially in a market like today:
1. He was out of position, or better put, poorly positioned for all of the match.
2. Up early in the opening of the match, he failed to hold and close his early lead when he had clear opportunities.
3. He made errors in pivot points early in the second and third sets – giving away every chance to get back into the match.
4. He was a consummate professional in defeat in the post match – the opponent was better, played better, and deserved to win.
The pundits will like to call this another sign of his decline, etc. I’m not so sure. Particular in that his inability to hoist another championship trophy is now nearly fully priced in.

Trading Lessons From Nicolas Darvas

  
  Education
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Nicolas DarvasNicolas Darvas has inspired traders for many generations. His book, “How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market” is one that you’ll find on many recommended reading lists including my own. While some have argued that much of Darvas’ success had to do with lucky timing, his books are still widely read and for good reason.

A lot of traders can identify easily with Darvas because he went through the process of learning how to trade much like most people do today. Darvas began by first looking for the “secret” to the market. And, just like all of us have found, after finding no success from trading on the stock tips of others including brokers and expensive newsletters, Darvas figured out that he ultimately had to develop a trading system on his own. He accomplished that feat by committing himself to years of study of the market and from learning from his own mistakes. His determination, perseverance, and constant self-evaluation offers an excellent model for all traders to follow.

In continuing a series of posts where I share my notes I’ve taken (and refer to from time to time) after reading the books and methods of others, here are some things you may find of interest about Nicolas Darvas and his approach:

Trading Lessons From Nicolas Darvas:

  • There are no good or bad stocks. There are only stocks that rise in price and stocks that decline in price, and that price is based on the laws of supply and demand in the marketplace
  • “You can never go broke taking a profit” is bad advice that will result in overtrading and cutting winners short. Selling winners and holding losers is to be avoided at all times (more…)

Richard Donchian's 20 trading guides

  
  Education
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General Guides:

  1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.
  5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.
  6. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation the the chart formation.
  7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons – a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%.
  8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders.
  9. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.
  10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.
  11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Technical Guides:

  1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected. (more…)

Quantifying Low/Risk High/Reward Trades

  
  Education
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lowriskQ:  How can do you quantify odds of 10-1 in your favor before you make a trade? Is it your profit goal is 10x more than your stop loss? 10 indicators that look good and one that does not look good? Can you share with the group how you get to 10-1 odds? It may not be an easy answer, but I wonder if you could expand.

Think of it this way. After I’ve performed my analysis of all of the things I look at (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment) and list them out at the price I’m considering making a specific trade, they must without any measure of doubt be highly tilted in my favor. In other words, it must fit my definition of what I consider to be a low/risk high/reward setup. For every negative I can find that argues against a specific trade, I need more than just a few positives to offset it.

What results from this analysis is that the total number of trades I make is lower than most, but the percentage of average winning trade is higher as well as my win/loss average. (more…)

Two quotes from :REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR

  
  Education
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Doing The Right Thing

The professional concerns himself with doing the right thing rather than with making money, knowing that the profit takes care of itself if the other things are attended to. A trader gets to play the game as the professional billiard player does—that is, he looks far ahead instead of considering the particular shot before him. It gets to be an instinct to play for position.

Price Tendency

You watch the market—that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape—with one object: to determine the direction—that is, the price tendency. Prices, we know, will move either up or down according to the resistance they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline; and vice versa.

Trading Lessons From Nicolas Darvas

  
  Education
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  • There are no good or bad stocks. There are only stocks that rise in price and stocks that decline in price, and that price is based on the laws of supply and demand in the marketplace
  • “You can never go broke taking a profit” is bad advice that will result in overtrading and cutting winners short. Selling winners and holding losers is to be avoided at all times
  • There is a “follow-the-leader” style in the market. You will find success by selecting the most active and strongest industry group and trading its top leader
  • The combination of price and increased volume is key to stock selection. Focus your time on new leaders emerging with a new market cycle
  • It is the anticipation of growth rather than the growth itself that leads to great profits in growth stocks. “You have to find out what the public wants and go along with it. You can’t fight the tape, or the public.”
  • One of the quickest ways to lose money in the market is to listen to others and all of their so-called expert opinions. To succeed, you must ignore all outside opinions and predictions. Follow your own strategy!
  • Losses are tuition on Wall Street. Learn from them.
  • You should expect to be wrong half of the time. Your goal is to lose as little as possible when you are. “I have no ego in the stock market. If I make a mistake I admit it immediately and get out fast. If you could play roulette with the assurance that whenever you bet $100 you could get out for $98 if you lost your bet, wouldn’t you call that good odds?”
  • Most of your big failures will come from three things: 1) when you abandon your rules, 2) you become overconfident, and 3) trade in despair when unsuccessful
  • The best speculators search only for the very best opportunities. To be truly successful, you must wait for the right opportunities to present themselves and this often means doing nothing for long periods of time
  • The market behaves the way it does due to participants behaving the way they do. No one knows what they will do until they actually do it
  • Long-term investors are the real gamblers in the market due to their eternal hope that losing stocks will come back in price
  • It is difficult to be profitable on the short side of the market versus the long side – trading in rising or bull markets will give you the best chance for success
  • Most, if not all stocks, will follow the general trend of the market
  • To train your emotions, write down the reasons for making every trade. When you lose, write down what you thought contributed to the loss. Then study and set new rules to avoid making those same mistakes
  • Concentrate your trades. At the peak of his success, Darvas would hold only 5 to 8 stocks at one time which was in contrast to his earlier days when he was overtrading and would hold up to 30 stocks at a time
  • Avoid fallen leaders. Overhead resistance will keep upside potential limited due to supply from previous buyers who had not cut short their losses. According to Darvas, the only sound reason for a stock is one that is rising in price. If that is not happening, then there is “no other reason worth considering.”
  • Darvas used his “box theory” to trade using boxes to time his entries (on breaking out to a new higher box) and exits (breaking below the current trading box).
  • For new trades, Darvas used “pilot buys” which basically were starter positions in stocks he liked. Only if the stock continued to move higher would he then pyramid and increase his position. He learned never to buy more of a losing position
  • He thought many unsuccessful investors made the mistake of looking at the same familiar names that might have worked well for them in the past instead of focusing on the next stock with the right elements for the new market cycle. “I am only in infant industries where earnings could double or triple. The biggest factor in stock prices is the lure of future earnings. The dream of the future is what excites people, not the reality.”
  • Perfection has no role in successful trading. No one can buy at the absolute lowest price and sell at the highest price. No time or effort should be devoted to that goal. “I never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life. I am satisfied to be along for most of the ride.”
  • Trade only when the environment is in your favor. Darvas’ strategy kept him out of poor and bear markets because he wouldn’t trade stocks that didn’t fit his requirements which were only found in raging bull markets
  • Be aggressive when warranted. Darvas believed in making aggressive trades when his system pointed to a great trade. In fact, sometimes 50% of his capital was devoted to just one stock
  • While his trading approach was very technical, after studying the market’s winners he understood the relevance of finding stocks also with good fundamentals. Namely, Darvas thought that earnings and the future estimate of increased earnings were very important
  • Be a student of the market. Darvas learned by reading more than 200 books about speculators and the market and devoted studying the market for many hours a day. In fact, Gerald Loeb’s books & approach served as key inspiration
  • No one can completely master the market. After millions of dollars and best selling books, Darvas was still learning and tweaking his system until he passed away

Jesse Livermore's Trading Rules (circa 1940)

  
  Education
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1. Nothing new ever occurs in the business of speculating in stock and commodities.
2. Money cannot be consistently made trading every day or every week during the year.
3. Don’t trust your own opinion or back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion.
4. Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.
5. The real money made in speculating has been in commitments showing a profit right from the start.
6. As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, do not be in a hurry to take profits.
7. One should never permit speculative ventures to run into investments.
8. The money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride.
9. Never buy a stock because it has a big decline from its previous high.
10. Never sell a stock because it seems high-priced.
11. I become a buyer as a stock makes a new high on its movement after having had a normal reaction.
12. Never average losses.
13. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average speculator.
14. Wishful thinking must be banished.
15. Big movements take time to develop.
16. It is not good to be too curious about all the reason behind price movements.
17. It is much easier to watch a few than many.
18. If you cannot make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the market as a whole.
19. The leaders of today may not be the leaders of two years from now.
20. Do not become completely bearish or bullish on the whole market because one stock in some particular group has plainly reversed its course from the general trend.
21. Few people ever make money on tips. Beware of inside information. If there was easy money lying around, no one would be forcing it into your pocket.

Up 62% in 9 Months

  
Analysis, Education, US Market
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SPX-6MONTHIt has been exactly nine months since the S&P 500 bottomed on March 9th at 676.53.  Since then, the index has rallied 62%.  Below we provide a chart of the rolling 9-month change (%) for the S&P 500 going back to 1928.  As shown, 1933 was the only other time when the S&P 500 had a bigger 9-month gain.  The 9-month period ending on May 12th, 1983 is the next best behind the current one with a gain of 60%.  Also, the 9-month 62% gain was preceded by a 9-month decline of 51%.  The only time that the index fell more over a 9-month period was in 1931/32 when it dropped 68%.  It’s easy to forget how crazy things were over the last 18 months, but stats like these provide a staggering refresher.

What Greed and Fear do ?

  
  Education
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 What greed and fear do:

  • Not setting a stop when the method requires placing a stop (fear of taking a loss).
  • Moving a stop when it shouldn’t have been moved (fear of taking a loss).
  • Removing a stop when it was already in place (fear of taking a loss).
  • Taking profits too early when the signal to exit has not been given (fear of profits being taken).
  • Taking profits too late when the signal is already given (greed).
  • Chasing the market when the entry is already past or no signal was given (greed of missing profits).
  • Not making the entry when the signal is given (fear of losing again).
  • Buying the pullback that is no longer a pullback but a decline (greed based on judgment that it’s now cheaper) or short selling when the rally is now a continued primary direction (fear of losing).
  • Adding on a losing position, i.e. averaging down (fear of losing).

How does a trader go about trading without fear or greed? Although no one can really trade without them, the emotion will still be there, especially when the position is still on. However he can keep them under control by not acting on them.

                                            There are few solutions to this problem:

  1. Write a trading plan for each and every trade and referring to it when he feels the emotion is overtaking him.
  2. Keep a trading journal with each trade taken along with thoughts and emotions during the open position. Recording these moments will reveal how much or how little control he has over emotions that influence or interfering with his trading method.
  3. Use an automated trading system to avoid interacting and interfering with trading. When no trading decisions have to be taken, there is less of a tendency to interfere.
  4. Once the trade is taken and stops and targets are set, walk away from the trading station or go about with other tasks. Stay close and follow every up and down ticks will increase emotions and will eventually affect trading.
  5. Keep the Profits and Loss (P/L) columns out of the desktop. This is the most important factor of all emotions: counting money. By having it readily available emotion will be exaggerated swinging up and down according the profits or losses going up or down. Removing this information is especially recommended for day traders.
  6. Trade small size until emotions are under control. By doing this, it’s obvious that it’s not about making money but about trading the method properly. The further away the thought of money is, the better the emotions are kept at bay.
  7. If trading is technically-based, focus on the charts, not on the quotes windows. Scalpers spend so little time in a position that using quotes and ticks are a necessity. For other traders, these can only increase emotional states.
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