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A Trader’s 5 Best Teachers

Trading Losses: There are two types of losses, one loss is caused by the market simply not being conducive for the profitability of your system. The other loss is due to your lack of discipline causing your system not to work. If you followed your trading plan and had a loss that is to be expected. If you are trading a proven and tested method then you have simply learned that taking a loss is simply part of trading. However if your breach of discipline caused your loss, whether not taking a stop, over riding your plan, not taking an entry, trading too big, etc. then it is time to learn why you had the loss. Ego? Fear? Greed? Overconfidence? Laziness? and many other things cause losses. It is crucial that you learn why you broke your trading plan so you do not repeat the mistake again.

Charts: Studying the past price action of charts is very educational. It will show you how prices have reacted at  support/resistance levels in the past along with moving averages and any other indicators that you may choose. It is important that you understand how your market has historically traded whether it is currencies, commodities, stocks, or bonds. It is crucial that you learn how to identify a trend, a swing trade, and a range bound market. (more…)

The “BUZZ WORDS” for 2013

In this global “LOW-GROWTH” macro-economic environment, I would use the following “BUZZ WORDS” to define World Central Bank and global market activity for 2013, as I see it at present.

*(I may update this list as the year progresses, as various scenarios become clearer, and as new events unfold.)

“MONEY PRINTING” and “EASY MONEY”

  • the Fed (and other Central Bankers around the world) provides low interest-rate loans to Banks
  • Banks are supposed to make this money available to companies and individuals at low rates that they deem appropriate (however, as demand for loans picks up, no doubt the Banks will raise interest rates, even though the Fed may not…a risk that will have to be factored into a company’s costs)
  • the Fed’s goal is to produce a “WEALTH EFFECT” (precisely who will benefit remains to be seen)
“INFLATE”
  • wholesale and retail prices of goods and services
  • price of stocks, commodities, etc.
  • taxes (more…)

Being disciplined

This is probably the most recurrent concept mentioned in trading literature, but what does it mean exactly? “Discipline is any training intended to produce a specific character or pattern of behaviour, especially training that produces moral, physical, or mental development in a particular direction”*, i.e.: to be disciplined you need a specific set of rules to follow. Without rules, discipline is an empty concept!! In order to be disciplined, a trader first needs to set the rules that he will need to follow. Here we come back to the necessity of first working out a methodology, and then applying the rules to make the most out of it. This is usually called the “Trading Plan” and it is the foundation of any successful trader. Many would-be traders find it hard to write down a specific trading plan since it is very far from the typical “easy money” illusion that many people have about trading. Being able to articulate a precise, step-by-step plan is the result of intensive (more…)

The trading curve.

I really like this visual because if you turn your head enough it looks like a face hitting the wall. Not sure if that was intentional but that is how I would best describe what trading is like when you are new and/or struggling.

There are subtle but important difference. Yes there are no clients or employees but that means that you have to rely on your own feedback mechanisms. Money is not as effective as one would think.

Initiation- Every trader comes in thinking they will make money, in fact if they have never traded, they probably have convinced themselves fully. They spend time looking for all the answers in charts but it is in the process. It seems like easy money. It is not easy but it is probably the best way to make money. The best of anything takes more work.

Wearing off of novelty– This is a critical time for any trader. This is where the hole gets deeper or ideally the trader stops and starts to work more efficient. Process and not charts. This is the motivation to understand what trading really is and who they really are.

Trough of sorrow- This is also a critical point. Now you have done some work but it has not paid off yet. Do you keep working? Do you get some help? Can you continue to improve?

Crash of ineptitude- You are starting to gain some experience and confidence. But you have a bad day and lose too much. Back to the drawing table.

Wiggles of false hope- This is where you understand what not to do so you are floating along again. The problem is you are only starting to understand what to do. You have corrected the big mistakes and now start down the path of correcting the small ones.

The promise land- Now you understand what not to do and what to do. Now it is up to you to actually do it. You are in the best position of your trading career.

Acquisition of liquidity- Now you are a self sustaining trader. You have the ability to make x amount of dollars to survive. This is what you have to lean on now. This is when trading begins to get real. You are methodically improving.

Upside of buyer- Not only do you understand what not to do and what to do, you always do it. Now the sky is the limit. You control your destiny.

The difference between trading and a start up is you are not looking to be acquired. You have to do this day in and day out, make a career. This does not stop but the process and progressions become second nature and you are seeing positive results. This is not the time to relax but the time to put the foot on the gas pedal. This is true about all of the stages except the first one.

Trading is also different in that any day you can put yourself back into one of the stages. That is why it is important to never forget that the purpose is to make money. As you gain experience you will spend less time in the early stages. The early stages will start to feel like touching a hot stove. You will recognized the situations more quickly and have the strength to make a change immediately.

The trading curve.

Initiation-  Every trader comes in thinking they will make money, in fact if they have never traded, they probably have convinced themselves fully. They spend time looking for all the answers in charts but it is in the process. It seems like easy money.  It is not easy but it is probably the best way to make money.  The best of anything takes more work.

Wearing off of novelty– This is a critical time for any trader.  This is where the hole gets deeper or ideally the trader stops and starts to work more efficient.  Process and not charts. This is the motivation to understand what trading really is and who they really are.

Trough of sorrow-  This is also a critical point.  Now you have done some work but it has not paid off yet.  Do you keep working?  Do you get some help?  Can you continue to improve? (more…)

Trading with No Regrets

Trading is really not as much of a numbers game as it is a mind game. Winning or losing in the long term will come down to whether you quit or keep going on your trading journey. Trading is not for everyone, there is no easy money in the markets. You will fight for your dollars, you will make money by doing the uncomfortable you will lose money when you think you are in a trade that just can’t lose. The emotional and mental pain will be unbearable if you do not believe in yourself and your method. If you are trading with no plan, no rules, and no system or method you will tend to be very hard on yourself for every losing trade. It was your decision that made you lose money, you will beat yourself up, and feel stupid. You will have 100% accountability for your mistake.This will not work.

What you must do is transition the accountability from yourself to your system or method. You must trade a proven methodology that will win based on the market action not your personal actions. You can not control odd out of left field events.  You can not help it if you trade a trend or a pattern and suddenly it loses. All you can do is take trades with great probabilities that match your beliefs about the market and if they are losers then you can’t blame yourself you can only cut your losses and look for the next trade that meets your parameters.

When you can shrug off a loss with no emotional or mental pain and move on to the next one you are at the next level. All you can control is your entry parameters, risk management, position size, exit, and mind set, the market determines whether you win or lose, not you.  You must have self confidence and faith in a proven method, take your trades let the market separate the winners from the losers.

10 Thing u should learn from Market

1. “There is no such thing as easy money”

This is so true, in the markets, in everything. Those who happen upon money where it DID come to them easily, it seems, as a witness, have had it very fleetingly. In my own case, although I am supremely confident in the profitabliity of what I am doing, in practically any market, in virtually any “regime,” doesn’t mean it’s easy. It works like clockwork and is incredibly painful and distressing. It would be so much easier to simply sell buckets of blood.”

2. It’s bad to try to make money the same way several days in a row
3. Markets that have little liquidity are almost impossible to profit from.
4. When the stock market is way down, policy makers take notice and do what they can to remedy the situation.
5. The market puts infinitely more emphasis on ephemeral announcements that it should.
6. It is good to go against the trend followers after they have become committed.
7. One should not make one’s analysis more precise than one’s actual trading could ever possibly be.

8.
If the rational mind has not determined the parameters of a trade, then upon execution, the lizard brain will decide.

9. Never go on vacation with open trading positions.
10.  All higher forms of math and statistics are useless in uncovering regularities.
Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA/INDIA

Have superstar traders lost their magic?

The Wizard of Oz, Greg Coffey, has clicked his heels together and said there’s no place like home. He is bowing out of the London hedge fund world, retiring to his native Australia at the ripe old age of 41.

One of the city’s best-known traders, the slick-haired investor who famously left his employer, GLG Partners, in 2008 after turning down a £156m “golden handcuffs” offer to stay, is the latest superstar hedge fund manager to leave the industry this year.

Rumours have circulated that he has fallen out with the founder of his current employer, Louis Bacon of Moore Capital, but the true explanation may be that after riding high during the boom years, like some of his fellow superstar traders, he’s decided to bow out at the top. A £430m fortune probably helped his decision, but it has also been a tough few years for the married father-of-three, who was once named the second sexiest hedge fund manager in the world.

He has gone from generating around £200m of GLG’s performance fees in 2007, capping an impressive annual return of 22% since 2004 (and ultimately leading to the massive golden handshake offer) to underperforming at Moore Capital, with two smaller emerging-market funds losing 16% and 2.3% respectively.

So could Coffey’s departure mark the end of the big-name trader? Jacob Schmidt, head of analysts Schmidt Research Partners, thinks so. “I think we have reached the end of the trend of the last 10 to 12 years of relatively easy money. Up to 2008, we had a fantastic run in the hedge fund business, but since then it has become much more difficult. The guys like Coffey who have had an easy run are thinking: ‘Why do I need this?’ That’s why they are leaving.”

Mark Dampier, head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, agrees. He says: “Investment is like fashion. One moment it’s all flashy, the next it’s not. They are all fallible and when they start to think they can walk on water, that’s usually when it all goes wrong.”

The best “hedgies” achieved exceptional returns in the build-up to the financial crash in 2008. They weren’t alone in that: it was easy to make money in the boom years. However, what set the superstar traders apart was their ability to create the myth that they were infallible, tempting investors to put them in charge of billions of dollars. (more…)

Trading Quotes from Trading Books

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”

Comparing Paper Trading vs. Real Trading
“Are you a good shot?” “I can snap the stem of a wine glass at twenty paces” “That’s all well, but can you snap the stem of a wine glass while the wine glass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?”

“A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips. If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip, I must sell those stocks on Smith’s tip. I am depending on him”

“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he’ll soon have no job to be on”

“The more I made, the more I spent. This is the usual experience with most men. No, not necessarily with easy-money pickers, but with every human being who is not a slave of the hoarding instinct. Some men, like old Russell Sage, have the money-making and the money-hoarding instinct equally well developed, and of course they die disgustingly rich”

“If a stock doesn’t act right, don’t touch it; because being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit”

“The big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend” (more…)

Trading with No Regrets


Trading is really not as much of a numbers game as it is a mind game. Winning or losing in the long term will come down to whether you quit or keep going on your trading journey. Trading is not for everyone, there is no easy money in the markets. You will fight for your dollars, you will make money by doing the uncomfortable you will lose money when you think you are in a trade that just can’t lose. The emotional and mental pain will be unbearable if you do not believe in yourself and your method. If you are trading with no plan, no rules, and no system or method you will tend to be very hard on yourself for every losing trade. It was your decision that made you lose money, you will beat yourself up, and feel stupid. You will have 100% accountability for your mistake.This will not work.

What you must do is transition the accountability from yourself to your system or method. You must trade a proven methodology that will win based on the market action not your personal actions. You can not control odd out of left field events.  You can not help it if you trade a trend or a pattern and suddenly it loses. All you can do is take trades with great probabilities that match your beliefs about the market and if they are losers then you can’t blame yourself you can only cut your losses and look for the next trade that meets your parameters.

When you can shrug off a loss with no emotional or mental pain and move on to the next one you are at the next level. All you can control is your entry parameters, risk management, position size, exit, and mind set, the market determines whether you win or lose, not you.  You must have self confidence and faith in a proven method, take your trades let the market separate the winners from the losers.