Archives of “currency” tag

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Bitcoin tries to restart after the 25% plunge lower today

  
Analysis, BITCOIN
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Bitcoin falls 25% from the high..

The price of Bitcoin moved up by about 22% to the high yesterday. Today from the high the price fell 25%.  Wow!
Bitcoin falls 25% from the high..
Technically, the first low (going into the close yesterday) stalled at the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above).  There was a sharp run back higher but the 2nd run lower cracked the 100 hour MA, the 200 hour MA (green line) and finally stalled near a lower trend line at $10300 (the low reached $10330).
What now?
The price is trading above and below the 200 hour MA at $10809.76.  The 50% midpoint from the June 10 low comes in at $10688.61.  If the price can’t stay above those levels, the sellers remain more in control. If the price can get and stay above, a move back above the 100 hour MA at $11636.83 will need to be breached.

Markets Pause Ahead of the Weekend

  
  Analysis
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Overview: The global capital markets are trading quietly ahead of the weekend.  Equity markets are mostly narrowly mixed.  Chinese shares extended their run, and the major benchmarks were up 4%+ on the week. Japan, Australia, South Korea, and India saw gains pared.  European equities were edging higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is holding on to around a 2% gain for the week.  After closing at record highs yesterday, the S&P 500 is trading a little heavier in the electronic activity.  News that the US was ready to strike Iranian radar and missile batteries but called it off at the last moment rattled investors.  Japanese, Europe, and US 10-year benchmark yields firmed slightly, while Australia and New Zealand 10-year yields eased to new record lows.  The dollar itself is also mixed, though the Dollar Index is trading a little below its 200-day moving average (~96.65) in the European morning.  The Turkish lira and South African rand are leading most of the emerging market currencies lower.  Gold briefly extended its gains above $1400 for the first time since 2013 before pulling back in Europe.  It is poised for its largest weekly gain (~3.5%) in three years.
Asia Pacific
 
Japan reported softer price pressures and a June flash manufacturing PMI that remained below the 50 boom/bust level.  Headline CPI slipped to 0.7% in May from 0.9% in April as economists expected.  The core rate, which excludes fresh food, eased to 0.8% from 0.9%.  When fresh food and energy are excluded–more like the US and Europe core measures–prices were up 0.5% from a year ago rather than 0.6% as was the case in April.  The flash manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 from 49.8 and reported the first drop in new orders since June 2016.  Output remained firm, and the order backlog is being absorbed, setting the stage for a potentially difficult Q3.  A bright spot may be services.  The tertiary index for April jumped 0.9% after a 0.5% decline in March.  This is the largest increase since last October.  There are no policy implications from today’s reports.  The bar to BOJ action appears a bit higher than in the US and Europe.

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10 Powerful Psychological Traits of the Rich Trader

  
  Education
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Ten Powerful Psychological Traits of the Rich Trader

  1. They have the ability to admit they were wrong and get out of a trade. They know the place where price proves them wrong.
  2. They have the ability to not only close a losing trade but reverse and go in the other direction when it is called for.
  3. The rich trader is not trying to prove anything about themselves they are focused on making money.
  4. They do not fall in love with an idea, currency, commodity, or stock they will make trades based on price action.
  5. Rich traders know that the market action is their ultimate boss regardless of their opinions.
  6. No matter how sure they are about a trade they still ALWAYS manage the risk.
  7. Rich traders get more aggressive when winning and trade smaller or take a break during a losing streak.
  8. A great trader is one that can admit to anyone that they were wrong.
  9. Rich traders do not believe their own hype, they know they can not really predict the future they can only react to current reality and the probabilities.
  10. Rich traders love what they do, win or lose.

When you are trading like that, it is hard to be beaten. Time is your friend.

Risk Can Be Predetermined; Reward Is Unpredictable

  
Analysis, Education
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Before entering every trade, you must know your pain threshold. You need to figure out what the worst-case scenario is and place your stop based on a monetary or technical level. Every trade, no matter how certain you are of its outcome, is an educated guess. Nothing is certain in trading. Reward, on the other hand, is unknown. When a stock moves, the move can be huge or small.

4 Pillars of Trading

  
  Education
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4 Pillars

I “see” the market through the lens of four primary metrics: fundamentals, technical, structural and psychology.

When viewed in isolation, each of those approaches has inherent flaws.

1. Fundamentals are best at the top and worst near a low.

2. Technical indicators often trigger buy signals higher, on breakouts, and sell signals lower, after a stock has broken down.

3. Structural factors — debt, derivatives and currency effects — can self-sustain in a cumulative manner until such time they overwhelm the system.

4. Psychology, such social mood and risk appetites, can gain momentum until they snap under the weight of the herd mentality.

Is the China bubble about to burst?

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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China bubbleAn aggressive and arrogant China is entering 2010 with a bit of uncertainty. Although there was no let-up in its exports in 2009, its internal financial position looks uncertain. China watchers are expecting a bubble that will eventually burst.

In 2009 banks in China lent internally about US$1.4 trillion to businesses, including the real estate industry, with dubious performance records. James Chanos, a successful U.S. stock market dealer, has predicted that China’s financial collapse could be far worse than Dubai’s.

China soothsayers wish to prove Chanos wrong – and they may be right. With US$2.2 trillion in foreign reserves, it would seem China could weather any storm. But the problem is that its cash reserves are uncashable. The United States and Europe are not just waiting to repatriate the money to China. So China could be left to its own devices if it faces a financial storm where markets tumble and poor people with money tied to investments see their savings vanish.

Easy credit, too much money in the economy, excessive foreign direct investment, a completely undervalued currency and rising real estate prices have definitely created a bubble. This bubble could burst with any minor international event. That is the price China would have to pay for designing policies that serve Western consumer markets. (more…)

Larry Hite on Risk

  
  Education
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LarryHiteSome wise views from Larry Hite:

“We don’t really trade silver…we don’t trade the S&P…we trade the differences. We really are risk managers. We take on risks, try to exploit them and we leave when they turn against us. That is what we get paid for. Basically we are in the risk transfer business. We take on what people want to sell, sell what people want to buy and hope to make a profit. The reason why one goes to a portfolio is because there are real limits to perfect knowledge. I’ll give you an example. Say you knew which commodity, stock or currency would appreciate the most in the following year, and you knew exactly what its price would be. We did this experiment looking backwards in fact in our database. The question of when you take a position is how are you going to trade the line…how much of a position are you going to leverage. Now, if you have perfect knowledge, would you leverage 5 to 1, would you leverage 10 to 1, 2 to 1? Well it turns out that if you leverage more than 3 to 1 that you are a loser. Because we found that if you did 3 to 1 you would have, even with perfect knowledge, you could go down a third. So that, the only perfect knowledge you could have, would be if you knew every wiggle on the line. Then you would know exactly how much to leverage. But you don’t.”

A Trade or a Gamble?

  
  Education
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I love to trade a lot – which is of course a euphemistic way of saying I love to gamble. Although I have been to Vegas more than a dozen times I never laid down so much as a dollar bet in any casino. I have absolutely no interest in backjack, craps, slot machines or any other games of chance and I look down with disdain at the excited masses crowding the cavernous Vegas gambling halls. But deep down, if I am honest with myself, I have to admit that whenever I trade a lot I am just as much of a sucker as every hopeless loser that gives up his hard earned money to Steve Wynn or Sheldon Adelson

If you are constantly trading just for the sake of trading, just for the rush of being “in the game”, just for the momentarily thrill of being right you are gambling. You are trading without an edge, without any solid information and are therefore completely vulnerable to the random vagaries of price. (more…)

List of Things I Do When I Plan a Trade

  
  Education
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planfirst1. My better trades come when I have found a place to quietly think about the trade idea, before I take the trade. I lay down for a few minutes and let my mind roam. This settles me down at an otherwise tense moment. It also allows me to clearly consider what I like or don’t like about the trade.

2. It’s important to me to ignore outside influences when I am planning a trade. I’d rather pay attention to my own reasons for the trade, instead of someone else’s views of the currency pair that have nothing to do with the indicators and other things that I look at when wanting to buy or sell. (more…)

Market Gravitates or We Spot those LEVELS…. Mystery !!

  
Analysis, Education
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BANK NIFTY

Here in this very space we have written Y’day and updated today intra-day too: @ 9106 wrote to Sell CNX Bank INDEX on any Rise. It would tumble to 8719 level very shortly.  Bang on… just in 48 hrs it collapsed to exactly our level, precisely 8715, a whooping fall of 400 points. 

 In the same breathe you were forewarned that for NF not crossing 5165-68 would weaken it to 4994 – 4970 levels. Exactly from 5168 of y’day it has nosedived uptill 5017.

 

These are indices: Non-manipulatable, Non-influential. How did it happen, who did it, can there be any attributes at all !!!!  Its our ever dependable charts, Analytical skills and wisdom of Insight. Collectively Technical Analysis. Just Pure Intelligence.

Yesterday  I written about Bank stocks…Just click here

Read Yesterday’s Guesstimates

Many Traders had asked about MTNL…..and they say I don’t about failure calls.First of all about MTNL….Technically was /still looking hot …But I had written many times never act blindly in market and always consider price as Father of stock/Commodity.

-Now click here and see…the reason ..Why MTNL had crashed in yesterday’s trade.

Now about Failure calls.If I recommend any stock or do analysis then I always write Support/Resistance levels. (more…)

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