rss

A PERFECT EXPLANATION FOR THE COLLECTIVE MADNESS OF CROWDS

All I can say about the following is WOW, talk about THE perfect explanation for the reason behind unreasonable and illogical crowded moves in the stock market…

The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the
following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike
be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence,
the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession
of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner
quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think,
and act were he in a state of isolation. There are certain ideas and feelings
which do not come into being, or do not transform themselves into acts except
in the case of individuals forming a crowd. The psychological crowd is a
provisional being formed of heterogeneous elements, which for a moment are
combined, exactly as the cells which constitute a living body form by their
reunion a new being which displays characteristics very different from those
possessed by each of the cells singly.

…and it was written by a psychologist in 1896!

Anyone care to guess who it is? And it is not Charles Mackay.

4 Pillars of Trading

4 Pillars

I “see” the market through the lens of four primary metrics: fundamentals, technical, structural and psychology.

When viewed in isolation, each of those approaches has inherent flaws.

1. Fundamentals are best at the top and worst near a low.

2. Technical indicators often trigger buy signals higher, on breakouts, and sell signals lower, after a stock has broken down.

3. Structural factors — debt, derivatives and currency effects — can self-sustain in a cumulative manner until such time they overwhelm the system.

4. Psychology, such social mood and risk appetites, can gain momentum until they snap under the weight of the herd mentality.

THE COLLECTIVE MADNESS OF CROWDS

All I can say about the following is WOW, talk about THE perfect explanation for the reason behind unreasonable and illogical crowded moves in the stock market…

The most striking peculiarity presented by a psychological crowd is the following: Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence,the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel, think, and act in a manner quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think,and act were he in a state of isolation. There are certain ideas and feelings
which do not come into being, or do not transform themselves into acts except in the case of individuals forming a crowd. The psychological crowd is a provisional being formed of heterogeneous elements, which for a moment are combined, exactly as the cells which constitute a living body form by their reunion a new being which displays characteristics very different from those possessed by each of the cells singly.

…and it was written by a psychologist in 1896!

Placing Time Limits On Reading Others

This Mail recieved from one of the Trader !Q:  It seems like the more I read different analysis and opinions of the market the worse I trade. Is this common? When I just stick to my basic chart-reading and my own instinct I do better. When I take advice and trade off of another’s opinion, the trade seems to fail. What’s up with this?

A:  There’s a Danish proverb that says that “he who builds according to every man’s advice will have a crooked house.” The same is true with trading and the experience you share is quite common.

While there are some excellent role models out there to read and learn from, it takes time and lots of experience to be able to properly filter through the noise and learn how to recognize subjective and/or faulty analysis. It really is a unique skill and one that is not very common unless you’ve been at it for awhile and/or developed that skill through your education and career.

Although most traders don’t feel confident about their strategies to be able to trade in complete isolation (at least not for very long), there is a tremendous benefit from doing so. In my view, traders are now being flooded with too much real-time data, information, and opinions and they’re struggling to cope, make sense of it, and then focus on what matters. Remember, more information and analysis does not translate into better performance and we all have to place strict time limits on the energy we devote to reading the thoughts of others. Instead of visiting hundreds of websites and watching Blue Channels…Just visit this blog nothing else

Battle of Waterloo and Trading

I often talk about the Battle Of Waterloo and how it relates to trading in general and specifically strategy development. If you don’t know the battle (which I recommend reading about if you have time), just listen to this once popular country song and you’ll get a sense to why I think this is so important.

While I’m no historian, I do think traders can learn a lot about trading through learning about important battles in history. The Battle Of Waterloo offers a great example as it offers many lessons for us to consider:

  1. Make your planning and risk analysis commensurate with the size of your project. For major endeavors, contingency plans are critical.

  2. Know when to cut your losses if necessary. Don’t let your desire to succeed be the enemy of good judgment.

  3. Be sure that the justification is clear for your project, and that your entire team is sold.

  4. Don’t become over-confident, especially after many successes. Remember the basic principles.

  5. Never attempt an unpopular endeavor in isolation.

  6. Don’t make enemies. You are only as good as your allies.

  7. Adopt leader style politics, not the Machiavellian style. Look for the win-win.

Many of these lessons apply to good trading, especially the ones about the importance of having contingency plans, knowing when to cut losses, having clear justifications for your trades, the importance of avoiding overconfidence and finally how important it is to attack from a strong position like having plenty of capital and cash reserves.

Needless to say, every trading strategy has their own weaknesses. So, what the most common weakness I’ve found? That’s easy – human error. That’s right, usually most strategies that have been backtested and proven to work continue to work well unless we do things to either deviate from the plan and/or we apply leverage to it rendering it extremely vulnerable. It is fairly often that I see traders come forward with a hot strategy they’ve used and are in the process of levering it up, creating havoc and exposing themselves to great risk. There is good reason for the expression – leverage always kills. In my experience, that has been true. Beyond that, many strategies are based on things that don’t account for the constantly evolving nature of the market. (more…)

Learning to Trade from a Legend-Victor Niederhoffer

Study horse racing books. The odds against winning at a parimutuel racetrack are overwhelming. Yet some touts have systems that produce a profit (against all odds). Can you apply any of these horse racing principles to your trading?

• Write down trading prices (by hand). There were a ton of computers in Victor’s trading room. Yet Victor made me do price analysis by hand. He felt there was enormous virtue about getting close and comfortable with trading figures.

• All markets are related. Learn what a move in bonds does to gold. And to S&P futures or the Japanese yen. Don’t trade markets in isolation

• Only make a trade when the odds are at least 60% in your favor.

• Don’t take losses to heart. I lost $20,000 on a Friday, the first day I traded real money for Victor. I wiped out my trading account. After stewing over my losses all weekend, I offered to resign and refund my losses. Victor refused my resignation and put $20,000 back in my trading account.

• Don’t take wins to heart. I remember making a lot of money following (I thought) Victor’s instructions while he was away. When Victor returned, he was not impressed by the fact the firm made money. He told me that I had traded erroneously and was lucky to have survived my trades.

• Be a mentor. Victor was generous with his time and advice. Despite the fact that several employees exploited his generosity, Victor continued to help new traders.

•  Get out when the trade is over. All trades have a beginning and end (based on time and price). Get out whether you’re winning or losing when the time or price has been met.

• Write down your moves. Learn from your mistakes.

• Learn concentration and game strategy from champions in other disciplines (such as ping-pong and checkers).

The Mind of the Greatest Trader-Livermore

As revolutionary as this early-day stock guru’s approach to trading was for his time, in truth, Jesse’s stock trading “secrets” just came down to good, sound basics. His success stands as a testament to the fact that the further we wander away from trading breakout stocks and a simple, disciplined approach to trading stocks, the less success we’re inclined to have. Just how unconventional was Jesse Livermore? Take a look:

  • He believed in trading top quality stocks, not “weaker sister” stocks.
  • A stock hitting new highs was a signal of a stock’s strength to Livermore, and meant the stock had broken through its overhead supply of sellers. Today, we call this a “breakout stock”.
  • He was one of the first stock traders to realize that stocks tend to move in industry groups not in isolation.
  • Unlike today’s self-appointed stock pick gurus, Jesse Livermore was a humble student of the market, and never considered himself a master.

Livermore was ever conscious of the part one’s psychology played in achieving stock trading success, so he never spoke about what he was doing to anybody, and actually was known to ask people to keep their stock tips to themselves! He was so protective of his trading psychology that he would not even use the words “bullish” or “bearish,” thinking they would create an emotional mindset that he wanted to avoid. (more…)

Placing Time Limits On Reading Others

opinion-There’s a Danish proverb that says that “he who builds according to every man’s advice will have a crooked house.” The same is true with trading and the experience you share is quite common.

While there are some excellent role models out there to read and learn from, it takes time and lots of experience to be able to properly filter through the noise and learn how to recognize subjective and/or faulty analysis. It really is a unique skill and one that is not very common unless you’ve been at it for awhile and/or developed that skill through your education and career.

Although most traders don’t feel confident about their strategies to be able to trade in complete isolation (at least not for very long), there is a tremendous benefit from doing so. In my view, traders are now being flooded with too much real-time data, information, and opinions and they’re struggling to cope, make sense of it, and then focus on what matters. Remember, more information and analysis does not translate into better performance and we all have to place strict time limits on the energy we devote to reading the thoughts of others.