Archives of “contagion” tag

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Coronavirus fears unlikely to turn the Fed into doves

  
Analysis, Economy
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The view from TD is that forecasting the extent of coronavirus contagion to the global economy or ‘risk’ is difficult.

But:
  • “we don’t expect the Fed to go more dovish simply because the market has become more nervous”
  • yield on the 10 yr is significantly lower since the start of the year
  •  “We don’t think the Fed is going to be a catalyst for a continued move lower in Treasury yields” 
However, the Fed will keep an eye on developments re the virus, on market sentiment and potential cascade for risk-off.
They’ll also keep an eye on what this guy wants, right?
The view from TD is that forecasting the extent of coronavirus contagion to the global economy or 'risk' is difficult.

Ireland Rescue Imminent As Bund Spreads Pass 720bps

  
  Education
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At last check Irish-Bund spreads were north of 725 bps, meaning Ireland is now effectively insolvent, and joins Greece in the group of bankrupt European countries. If this blow out is not stopped immediately, the contagion will again spread to the periphery first and then to the core shortly thereafter. The only question is when, just like in the case of oh so coy Greece, will Lenihan admit defeat and ask the IMF and the ECB for help (oh, and do it so during a Citigroup-mediated conference call). However, as Market News reports, citing Handesblatt, the Irish rescue may be imminent, and may come as soon as today.

From Market News:

 
 

Eurozone governments are preparing for a possible Greece-style rescue for Ireland although the country has not yet asked for financial assistance, German daily Handelsblatt reported Thursday, citing German government sources.
 (more…)

IMF WARNING: Britain could follow Greece?

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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There were fears that Britain could follow Greece into a financial crisis after a global finance chief warned of economic “contagion” spreading across Europe.

The head of the International Monetary Fund urged politicians to finalise a bail-out for the debt-laden Mediterranean country, saying that every day lost in resolving the problems risked spreading the impact “far away”.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s comments came amid more evidence of Europe’s mounting fiscal problems after Spain’s debt was downgraded – a move recently applied to its under-pressure neighbour Portugal as well as Greece.

On Wednesday, shadow chancellor George Osborne raised the spectre of the crisis affecting the public finances of the UK, which faces dealing with its own £163 billion mountain of public borrowing. (more…)

Bank Exposure To Bulgarian And Romanian Sovereign Risk

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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There’s been a lot of talk recently about Hungary following in Greece’s footsteps and potentially defaulting on its debt. Bulgaria and Romania are two other weak economies in Eastern Europe, and the chart below shows bank exposure by country to Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Greece (source):

It’s interesting to note the exposure that Greece has to Bulgaria and Romania. Romanian and Bulgarian debt comprise more than 25% of the foreign debt that Greek banks hold. Austria also has a high concentration of risk in these four countries, at 29% of total foreign claims outstanding.  When investors talk about contagion, what they are really referring to is positive feedback loops.  We can see from the chart above how trouble at one country can quickly develop into a concern for other countries.  The situation in Greece could make it difficult for Bulgaria and Romania to roll over their debt, an event which would in itself reduce the value of Greece’s assets, creating further difficulty for Bulgaria and Romania.

Greek crisis clouds EU summit

  
  Education
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crisisThe fiscal emergency in Greece and the turbulence in debt markets are threatening to overshadow this week’s EU summit on business competitiveness. The problem poses a leadership test for Herman Van Rompuy, the EU’s first permanent president, who called the meeting. Greece’s debt crisis, and the risk of eurozone contagion,  are not on the summit’s official agenda, but leaders fear the impact on financial markets if the summit does not address the worst crisis to strike European monetary union since its launch in 1999.

The “Greek Issue”-Fascinating flowchart

  
Analysis, Education
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It is wrong to think that contagion stems only from Grexit. An excessive compromise with Greece could result in moral hazard, particularly in relation to structural reforms. This could undermine the medium-term stability of the euro area. The tail risk is that Greek politicians try to leverage too much the fear of Grexit “contagion risk”. We complete our analysis by looking at the vulnerability of other euro peripherals and the ex-post tools to limit contagion.

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