They cited comments from Alfred Schipke, who is the IMF’s senior resident representative to China. He spoke in Beijing yesterday.
“If there is a shock, the exchange rate ought to be part of the adjustment and should be allowed to depreciate. That is what exchange rates are for,” Schipke said, adding that the exchange rate should be decided by market forces. “In principle let the market decide,” he said.
China has been leaning against yuan weakness by setting the mid-point at levels below the market. The currency has fallen about 4% this month.
In April, the IMF lowered its forecasts. Since October, this is the fourth downgrade in global growth and the statement said downside risks have intensified going forward, noting trade.
“The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences,” the report says.
They noted that fixed investment is particularly soft, even in places where growth has surprised to the upside. They note high inventories in the UK and US.
At last check Irish-Bund spreads were north of 725 bps, meaning Ireland is now effectively insolvent, and joins Greece in the group of bankrupt European countries. If this blow out is not stopped immediately, the contagion will again spread to the periphery first and then to the core shortly thereafter. The only question is when, just like in the case of oh so coy Greece, will Lenihan admit defeat and ask the IMF and the ECB for help (oh, and do it so during a Citigroup-mediated conference call). However, as Market News reports, citing Handesblatt, the Irish rescue may be imminent, and may come as soon as today.
From Market News:
Eurozone governments are preparing for a possible Greece-style rescue for Ireland although the country has not yet asked for financial assistance, German daily Handelsblatt reported Thursday, citing German government sources. (more…)
There is one major problem with putting houses of card back together – they tend to fall…over and over. And while abundant liquidity in May and June served as an artificial prop to return European core and PIIGS spreads to previous levels merely as mean reversion algos took holds, the second time around won’t be as lucky. CDR’s Tim Backshall was on the Strategy Session today, discussing the key trends in sovereign products over the past few months, noting the declining liquidity in both sovereign cash and derivative exposure (we will refresh on the DTCC sovereign data later after its weekly Tuesday update). Yet the most interesting observation by Backshall is the declining halflife of risk-on episodes, which much like the SNB’s (now declining) interventions, are having less of an impact on the market, as ever worsening fundamentals can only be swept under the carpet for so long before they really start stinking up the place, and indeed, as Tim points out at 5:30 into the interview, even the IMF now realizes that soon the eventual second domino will fall, and it is better the be prepared (via the previously discussed infinitely expanded credit line), than to have to scramble in the last minute as was necessary in May. In other words, the storm clouds are gathering and only fools will invest in risk asset without getting some additional clarity on what is happening in Europe. The bottom line as Backshall asks is: “do they default now or default later.” And that pretty much sums it up. Buy stocks at your own peril.
Incidentally all this is happening as we read in an exclusive Bloomberg piece that “four months after the 110 billion- euro ($140 billion) bailout for Greece, the nation still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it used to conceal debt” and that EuroStat still has not received the required disclosure about just how fake (or real) the Greek debt situation truly is. When one steps back and ponders just how bad (and unknown) the situation in Europe is, and that stocks are unchanged for the year, one must conclude, as Dylan Grice does every week, that the lunatics have truly taken over the asylum.
John Taylor, chairman and chief executive officer of FX Concepts LLC, the world’s largest currency hedge fund, sees the euro dropping to $1.20 by August, and believes parity is possible. Be very careful, because as of today Goldman is now accumulating euros (as per its just released Sell recommendation). More from Taylor: “It’s going to be quick because things are really falling apart…. Some of these [countries] have to be thrown out [of the EMU]. If you look at a country like Latvia, which has been effectively in the Euro, has been saved by the European Commission and the IMF much like they are suggesting Greece will be, their retail sales were down 30% last year, the GDP was down 18%, it is expected to drop another 8% this year. Latvians are starving, the place is a disaster area: that’s what you have to go through to be a part of the Euro.” On whether his firm has felt any political pressure on putting on bearish euro bets: “None at all. We are SEC regulated and the information is there, but nobody seems to be caring.” Lastly, Taylor ridicules the WSJ story about the restaurant-based collusion: “Yes, they had a meeting and talked about how bad the euro was. But that they in fact had some impact: their assets are 1% of the daily volume. Somebody like us, we have a bigger position against the euro than those people put on.” Taylor says in the next three to six months, the dollar will be strongest against the euro, and Eastern European currencies. In a longer horizon, he says to be long Asia and short the euro. Bottom line: sell Europe, buy everyone else. And join the bandwagon… Just as Bernanke prepares the dollar’s next suicide move with inflation obviously not working.
The International Monetary Fund is looking at raising its share of Greece’s financial rescue package by €10bn ($13.2bn) amid fears that the planned €45bn bail-out will fail to prevent the country’s debt crisis from spiralling out of control.
Senior bankers and officials in Washington and Athens told the Financial Times that the IMF was in talks to increase its aid contribution by €10bn. The fund could make that sum available under a planned three-year loan, according to an Athens-based analyst familiar with the talks.
Investors and policy specialists said that expectations of the size of the three-year package in Washington policy circles had increased to at least €70bn. The EU has so far proposed to provide €30bn and the IMF €15bn. “The fund’s current ceiling for Greece is €25bn and the release of the extra amount is under discussion,” the analyst said. The IMF declined to comment on the size of the package.
Dear Readers & Traders ,We are again first in India to give this NEWS.And in afternoon or late by evening once this NEWS will be out.Then watch huge short covering across the Globe.
I’m offering my country for sale. What is left of it anyway. Slightly used, low wages, low pensions, low expectations. Lots of sunshine though, free at the moment.
Many natural resources, minerals etc that are still untouched. Bureaucracy at its best. Great bribe-to-do system, over 20 years of experience. Obedience at the IMF, bankers and the Troika is guaranteed, no questions asked. (more…)
Some very spicy comments from the Hungarian prime minister who basically tells the world to get lost (please admire effort to remain polite on his part). In so many words it’s not his fault, it’s the previous administration’s fault. Sounds familiar? Obama has used it at will, Greece has used it, I heard Sarkozy use it, and just about everybody else! Even Republicans who campaigned to “Drill baby drill!” now blame the BP fiasco on Obama. Needless to say political courage is something that no longer exists, and populism has been the only political program offered to us for now a solid 40 years. The natural extension is for a Prime Minister to just walk in and say: “You know what screw you guys, we will default, I am not taking back tax cuts that got me elected, I am not telling people who were promised early retirement that really it’s not feasible, I’m just not going to deal with any of this. Let’s just default and keep doing what we were doing”. In the same line of thought the French PM declared this morning that there is nothing bad about EURUSD at parity.
If you think it’s bad to sell someone a mortgage they can’t pay, how about promising them a lifestyle they can’t afford! Washington has some nerve to blame the financial industry: “a house for every American” was their idea. Granted there is plenty of blame and jail time deserved at many financial institutions but it is true also for Congress. I used to think that over the past 40 years the commodity that was most devalued was human labor but I have changed my mind. A man’s word no longer has any value in most cases. Should the law be changed so that it holds our leaders accountable for their words? Why not, we would get a hell of a clean slate and something to be finally hopeful about. That is change I would believe in for sure. (more…)