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U.S., U.K. 'most stretched' by debt, Moody's says

Uncle Sam isn’t in danger of losing his top credit rating, but he’s not in the greatest shape, either.

So says Moody’s Investors Service in its quarterly assessment of triple-A-rated countries.

Paying the interest on their debt remains manageable for these countries, Moody’s says, so their governments aren’t in any immediate danger of a downgrade.

But among the AAA countries, the U.S. and the U.K. are “most stretched” by their debt obligations, Moody’s says.

The debt ratings are important because a downgrade raises a country’s borrowing costs. And virtually every big country faces a difficult challenge in removing bailout and stimulus money quickly enough to avoid inflation and slowly enough to keep the weak recovery going.

“This exposes governments to substantial execution risk in the implementation of their exit strategies, which could yet make their credit more vulnerable,” says Arnaud Mares, senior vice president in Moody’s sovereign risk group and the main author of the report.

Bank Exposure To Bulgarian And Romanian Sovereign Risk

There’s been a lot of talk recently about Hungary following in Greece’s footsteps and potentially defaulting on its debt. Bulgaria and Romania are two other weak economies in Eastern Europe, and the chart below shows bank exposure by country to Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Greece (source):

It’s interesting to note the exposure that Greece has to Bulgaria and Romania. Romanian and Bulgarian debt comprise more than 25% of the foreign debt that Greek banks hold. Austria also has a high concentration of risk in these four countries, at 29% of total foreign claims outstanding.  When investors talk about contagion, what they are really referring to is positive feedback loops.  We can see from the chart above how trouble at one country can quickly develop into a concern for other countries.  The situation in Greece could make it difficult for Bulgaria and Romania to roll over their debt, an event which would in itself reduce the value of Greece’s assets, creating further difficulty for Bulgaria and Romania.

European Bank Stress Test – Full List of Banks to be Examined

Details of what the much talked about stress test of European banks will examine is out. A total of 91 European banks will be involved in the stress tests (full list of banks being tested are shown below). The test which is being overseen by the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) states:

The objective of the extended stress test exercise is to assess the overall resilience of the EU banking sector and the banks’ ability to absorb further possible shocks on credit and market risks, including sovereign risks, and to assess the current dependence on public support measures.

The exercise is being conducted on a bank-by-bank basis using commonly agreed macro-economic scenarios (baseline and adverse) for 2010 and 2011, developed in close cooperation with the ECB and the European Commission.

The macro-economic scenarios include a set of key macro-economic variables (e.g. the evolution of GDP, of unemployment and of the consumer price index), differentiated for EU Member States, the rest of the EEA countries and the US. The exercise also envisages adverse conditions in financial markets and a shock on interest rates to capture an increase in risk premia linked to a deterioration in the EU government bond markets.

On aggregate, the adverse scenario assumes a 3 percentage point deviation of GDP for the EU compared to the European Commission’s forecasts over the two-year time horizon. The sovereign risk shock in the EU represents a deterioration of market conditions as compared to the situation observed in early May 2010.

The scope of the stress testing exercise has been extended to include not only the major EU cross-border banking groups but also key domestic credit institutions in Europe. {…}

The results of the stress test will be disclosed, both on an aggregated and on a bank-by-bank basis, on 23 July 2010.

It should be noted that a stress testing exercise does not provide forecasts of expected outcomes, but rather a what-if analysis aimed at supporting the supervisory assessment of the adequacy of capital of European banks. {…}

We all remember the stress test that was applied to American financial institutions in early 2009. It took months for the Federal Reserve to decide how to conduct the testing and then how to release the results so as not to upset anyone. Will the Europeans tell it like it is, or will they follow Tim Geithner’s past action of ‘just don’t say much’ ?

The full list of European banks that will undergo stress testing:

 

Austria

  • ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
  • RAIFFEISEN ZENTRALBANK OESTERRREICH AG (RZB)

Belgium

  • KBC GROUP
  • DEXIA

Cyprus

  • MARFIN POPULAR BANK PUBLIC CO LTD
  • BANK OF CYPRUS PUBLIC CO LTD

Denmark

  • DANSKE BANK
  • JYSKE BANK A/S
  • SYDBANK A/S

Finland

  • OP-POHJOLA GROUP

France

  • BNP PARIBAS
  • CREDIT AGRICOLE
  • BPCE
  • SOCIETE GENERALE

Germany

  • DEUTSCHE BANK AG
  • COMMERZBANK AG
  • HYPO REAL ESTATE HOLDING AG
  • LANDESBANK BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG
  • BAYERISCHE LANDESBANK
  • DZ BANK AG DT. ZENTRAL-GENOSSENSCHAFTSBANK
  • NORDDEUTSCHE LANDESBANK -GZ-
  • DEUTSCHE POSTBANK AG
  • WESTLB AG
  • HSH NORDBANK AG
  • LANDESBANK HESSEN-THÜRINGEN GZ
  • LANDESBANK BERLIN AG
  • DEKABANK DEUTSCHE GIROZENTRALE
  • WGZ BANK AG WESTDT. GENO. ZENTRALBK

Greece

  • NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE
  • EFG EUROBANK ERGASIAS S.A.
  • ALPHA BANK
  • PIRAEUS BANK GROUP
  • AGRICULTURAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. (ATEbank)
  • TT HELLENIC POSTBANK S.A.

Hungary

  • OTP BANK NYRT.
  • JELZÁLOGBANK NYILVÁNOSAN M?KÖD? RT.

Ireland

  • BANK OF IRELAND
  • ALLIED IRISH BANKS PLC

Italy

  • UNICREDIT
  • INTESA SANPAOLO
  • MONTE DEI PASCHI DI SIENA
  • BANCO POPOLARE – S.C.
  • UNIONE DI BANCHE ITALIANE SCPA (UBI BANCA)

Luxembourg

  • BANQUE ET CAISSE D’EPARGNE DE L’ETAT
  • BANQUE RAIFFEISEN

Malta

  • BANK OF VALLETTA (BOV)

?Netherlands

  • ING Bank
  • RABOBANK GROUP
  • ABN/ FORTIS BANK NEDERLAND (HOLDING) N.V
  • SNS BANK

Poland

  • POWSZECHNA KASA OSZCZ?DNO?CI BANK POLSKI S.A. (PKO BANK POLSKI)

Portugal

  • CAIXA GERAL DE DEPÓSITOS
  • BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUÊS BANCO COMERCIAL PORTUGUÊSS.A. (BCP OR MILLENNIUM BCP)
  • ESPÍRITO SANTO FINANCIAL GROUP S.A. (ESFG)
  • BANCO BPI

Slovenia

  • NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA (NLB)

Spain

  • BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
  • BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. (BBVA)
  • JUPITER –  CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE MADRID (CAJA MADRID); CAJA DE AHORROS DE VALENCIA, CASTELLÓN Y ALICANTE (BANCAJA); CAIXA DÉSTALVIS LAIETANA; CAJA INSULAR DE AHORROS DE CANARIAS; CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE AVILA; CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE SEGOVIA; CAJA DE AHORROS DE LA RIOJA.
  • CAIXA-  CAJA DE AHORROS Y PENSIONES DE BARCELONA (LA CAIXA); CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE GIRONA.
  • CAM –  CAJA DE AHORROS DEL MEDITERRÁNEO (CAM); CAJA DE AHORROS DE ASTURIAS; CAJA DE AHORROS DE SANTANDER Y CANTABRIA; CAJA DE AHORROSY MONTE DE PIEDAD DE EXTREMADURA.
  • BANCO POPULAR ESPAÑOL, S.A.
  • BANCO DE SABADELL, S.A.
  • DIADA –  CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE CATALUNYA; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE TARRAGONA: CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE MANRESA.
  • BREOGAN – CAJA DE AHORROS DE GALICIA; CAIXA DE AFORROS DE VIGO, OURENSE E PONTEVEDRA (CAIXANOVA).
  • MARE NOSTRUM –  CAJA DE AHORROS DE MURCIA; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DEL PENEDES; CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DE LAS BALEARES (SA NOSTRA); CAJA GENERAL DE AHORROS DE GRANADA.
  • BANKINTER, S.A.
  • ESPIGA – CAJA DE AHORROS DE SALAMANCA Y SORIA (CAJA DUERO); CAJA DE ESPAÑA DEINVERSIONES CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD (CAJA ESPAÑA).
  • BANCA CIVICA, S.A.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE ZARAGOZA, ARAGON Y RIOJA
  • ANTEQUERA Y JAEN (UNICAJA)
  • BANCO PASTOR, S.A.
  • CAJA SOL –  MONTE DE PIEDAD Y CAJA DE AHORROS SAN FERNANDO DE HUELVA, JEREZ Y SEVILLA (CAJA SOL); CAJA DE AHORRO PROVINCIAL DE GUADALAJARA.
  • BILBAO BIZKAIA KUTXA,AURREZKI KUTXA ETA BAHITETXEA
  • UNNIM – CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE SABADELL; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS DE TERRASSA; CAIXA DÉSTALVIS COMARCAL DE MANLLEU.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE GIPUZKOA Y SAN SEBASTIAN
  • CAI –  CAJA DE AHORROS Y MONTE DE PIEDAD DEL CÍRCULO CATÓLICO DE OBREOS DEBURGOS (CAJA CÍRCULO); MONTE DE PIEDAD Y CAJA GENERAL DE AHORROS DE BADAJOZ; CAJA DE AHORROS DE LA INMACULADA DE ARAGÓN.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE CORDOBA
  • BANCA MARCH, S.A.
  • BANCO GUIPUZCOANO, S.A.
  • CAJA DE AHORROS DE VITORIA Y ALAVA
  • CAJA DE AHORROS Y M.P. DE ONTINYENT
  • COLONYA – CAIXA D’ESTALVIS DE POLLENSA

Sweden

  • NORDEA BANK
  • SKANDINAVISKA ENSKILDA BANKEN AB (SEB)
  • SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN
  • SWEDBANK

?United Kingdom

  • ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (RBS)
  • HSBC HOLDINGS PLC
  • BARCLAYS
  • LLOYDS BANKING GROUP