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Great Quotes of Mark Douglas

  
  Education
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“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!”
-Mark Douglas

“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”
-Mark Douglas (more…)

25 rules of trading discipline

  
  Education
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thoughtful-disciplined-trader
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

  1. The market pays you to be disciplined.
  2. Be disciplined every day, in every trade, and the market will reward you. But don’t claim to be disciplined if you are not 100 percent of the time.
  3. Always lower your trade size when you’re trading poorly.
  4. Never turn a winner into a loser.
  5. Your biggest loser cant exceed your biggest winner.
  6. Develop a methodology and stick with it. dont change methodologies from day to day.
  7. Be yourself. Dont try to be someone else.
  8. You always want to be able to come back and play the next day. Once you reach the daily downside limit, you must turn your PC off and call it a day. You can always come back tomorrow.
  9. Earn the right to trade bigger. Remember: if you are trading poorly with two lots you must lower your trade size down to a one lot.
  10. Get out of your losers.
  11. The first loss is the best loss.
  12. Dont hope and pray. If you do, you will lose. (more…)

State of Mind

  
  Education
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The goal of any trader is to turn profits on a regular basis, yet so few people ever really make consistent money as traders. What accounts for the small percentage of traders who are consistently successful is psychological—the consistent winners think differently from everyone else.

The defining characteristic that separates the consistent winners from everyone else is this: The winners have attained a mind-set—aunique set of attitudes—that allows them to remain disciplined, focused,and, above all, confident in spite of the adverse conditions.

Those traders who have confidence in their own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful.They
no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.

You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; anything can happen, and every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience.

The trader that it’s his attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.

The Secret to Success in Trading

  
  Education
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People that are more likely to find success in trading, or any endeavor, tend to be those who take the initiative. Without that belief in your own ability to take action to insure progress, i.e.: initiative, you will never transition from having a vision — hope –to implementation of a plan to achieve that vision – goal. Your belief and confidence need to get stronger with each step toward the goal. This is what will feed your thought process and attitude.

The most difficult part of the journey to successful trading is learning the basics thoroughly. You will know you are on your way when each step starts to get easier. 

The real secret is understanding how simple trading is. The hard part is getting out of your own way to get to that point.

Trading art

Expectations vs Reality

  
  Education
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expecˈtation – noun

1. belief about (or mental picture of) the future
2. anticipating with confidence of fulfillment
3. the feeling that something is about to happen

I think all of us initially come to this subject with expectations (or as stated above, confidence in the fulfillment of our mental pictures of the future). Obviously having goals is one thing, but expectations are another – the problem is the time lines we set and the source of our expectations.

For instance, what if you expect to make money trading in two years, but in actuality (and unknown to you) it will take five? Surely after two years a thought will enter your head such as “this is not working out how I hoped…”

No wonder – your hopes had no connection to reality.

Even more bizarre, considering the above, is that I imagine almost everyone that gets involved in this subject expects to make money immediately. If you expect to make money immediately, but in reality it takes five years to learn to trade with consistency, then of course blown accounts and negative emotions are virtually guaranteed.

Non of us that wash out are smart – we are dumb. If we were smart, we would demo trade (or make use of facilities such as micro accounts) UNTIL we could actually trade profitably, no matter how many years it took.

Are you able to demo trade for five years? I can hear you now – “no freekin’ way!!!”

Why not? Of course, because you have PLANS don’t you? You have OTHER THINGS that you need to press on with that are dependent on your success in trading; in fact these plans of yours are already LATE due to the unexpected delays you hit with this little ‘ole thing called the Stock Market.

What was it? Quit your job, pay off a debt, new car, beach house by the sea, exotic holiday, help your parents in their old age, total financial freedom from the wage slave arena?

These two things combined, unrealistic expectations + unrelated desires are pure poison to any chance of success you have. I can see that now – I have actually looked within and SEEN the cobwebs of unrelated desires and unrealistic expectations that in fact have nothing to do with the reality of trading. Thats the truly amazing thing; these issues are actually NOT CONNECTED to the subject, they are things that are hanging around it in your head like moths around a flame.

So what to do? Somehow, this subject and this practice of trading needs to be mentally separated out into its own space and be unconnected to anything else, otherwise we are dragging all of this dead weight behind us. The term “mental purity” was a phrase coined by the West Coast trading desk by the Enron traders used to describe the state whereby they have nothing unconscious infecting their trading decisions (such as morals and a conscience in their case! See the book Smartest Guys in the Room – a brilliant read).

Its a good term – somehow we need to achieve mental purity (be free from murky motives and unconscious unrealistic expectations).

Trading is like SEX

  
  Education
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  1. -Some like it long, some like it short.
  2. -You can study the market as much as you like, but it all comes down to luck.
  3. -Those who talk about it the most, have the least experience.
  4. -One simple mistake could lead to 18 unprofitable years.
  5. Some prefer to sit back and watch it grow.
  6. -Low confidence can keep you out of the market.
  7. -Everyone tends to focus on performance.
  8. -Some do it alone, others do it with a group, and some hire professionals.
  9. -and the number one reason….Some positions are better than others and the best position is always up for debate!

-And remember, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

New Trading Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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Play to win, not for a score. Traders who desire only to make money versus simply trying to trade well and their best ability will struggle. This is a money-focused game, but trading well requires you to focus on goals beyond the money to achieve the performance you really desire.

Recognize a real gamble. When you are trading well, take the possibility of a major loss out of the equation whenever you can. It is true, when we are the most vulnerable is when everything is going right and it seems like we can do no wrong. Moreover, there are times to make the big aggressive trade, and times when doing so is foolhardy. Recognizing the difference is so very important.

Root hard for yourself. When everything goes wrong, the quickest way to turn it around is to force yourself to be optimistic and enthusiastic. Even after making the so-so trades which only pay out puny returns, you’ve got to pat yourself on the back and slowly gain your confidence back. confidence is everything in trading and you need a steady supply of reassuring confidence to trade at your very best.

Forget the holes up ahead. Focus on today’s trade, not the next one or the one you think you see is falling into place weeks from now. As Hunter recommends, “You really have to stay in the present.” Traders often let big picture themes and views prevent them from seeing setups that occur daily. This tunnel vision can really limit overall returns. Find the next trade, focus on that trade, and after that, move to the next. Don’t let issues you see so far down the road prevent you from making profits today.

The right way to play safe. If you play chicken, you’ll invite bad trades and disaster. As others have said, you’ve always got to trade to win, instead of trading not to lose. There’s a tremendous difference. I know traders who try to hedge every trade they make and ultimately don’t achieve the returns they should. If your approach is sound, hedging should only be a tool to use sparingly, not as an entire strategy substitute or for protecting your ego when you are wrong.

Probabilities vs. expectations

  
  Education
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I expect to wake up tomorrow morning and not die during the night.

I expect that I will be able to get out of bed and know how to walk to the kitchen.
I expect my car will start.
I expect the other person will stop at the red light.
I expect that I won’t get hit by lightning.
 
Seeing that expectations are what normal everyday life is founded on, is it natural to think that you can expect a stock to trade in a particular direction? Only if you want to become a loser.
The markets and stocks are not everyday life. They have the ability to do anything at any time. The only thing 100% certain is that they are 100% unpredictable.
If you have expectations, it means you have an emotional attachment or interest in an event outcome. Do you expect to make money, have a winning trade, make a right decision? When they happen are you giddy with excitement, gushing to all who will listen that you are so smart. What happens when you are wrong? How about wrong ten times in a row? If you live the highs you will be living the lows. Your expectations will destroy your confidence and thus your account. Your ego will take you back to childhood where you will throw tantrums and stomp your feet looking for a sympathetic ear. “The markets aren’t fair” you say. Well the markets don’t give a shit what your want or when you want it.
Now if instead you trade the probability of a outcome to an event, you can put a wall up between yourself as a person who is on autopilot accepting everyday expectations and you as a successful trader who is ruthless in the execution of your plan. Thinking, trusting and truly believing in probabilities will save the day for you. When you think that “based on my experience, seeing a very similiar situation before, odds are that the near future direction of this stock is this way. However since this event is unrelated in every way to my past memories, I must choose the point at which my decision will be proven wrong and set a protective stop here.”
When you think this way, it doesn’t matter whether you are right or wrong. You are simply carrying out your trading plan based on your experience/edge. Playing the averages. You don’t get hurt by losing trades. You don’t get happy over winning trades. Whatever happens, happens. Being cold and calculating brings you as a trader closer to the machines that are running the show these days. (more…)

Do You want to Win or Lose at Trading?

  
  Education
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There are things that make you win in the stock market over the long term and then there are things that make you lose quickly even in the short term. The key to trading success is learning the difference quickly and doing what really works not what you emotions or opinions tell you to do.
If you want to win then you must create your own trading plan and follow it, if you want to lose just trade whatever you want whenever you want based on your own opinion.
If you want to win then you must control your risk carefully with only 1% or 2% of your capital at stake in every individual trade, if you want to lose then just trade huge position sizes, put all your chips on the table.
If you want to win plan your entries and exits before you enter a trade then follow them, if you want to lose ask for everyone’s opinion and just make decisions based on other people.
If you want to win cut your losses short and let your winners run, if you want to lose hold your losers and hope that they come back and sell your winners quickly to lock in gains.
If you want to win trade only the best high quality stocks in the market, if you want to lose trade the junk and hope for a miracle come back.
If you want to win then build complete confidence for your system through chart studies and back testing, if you want to lose trade with no idea of if what you are doing even works.
If you want to win go with the current trend of the market, if you want to lose fight the trend and trade against it.
If you want to win then go long the hottest stocks in a bull market, if you want to lose short the hottest stocks in a bull market.
Do what makes money not what you feel like doing.

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