One thing that I couldn’t accept as an attorney (for the five minutes I seriously considered that as a profession) was that I’d be confronted with the temptation to make money from projects and clients with whom I did not want to work. The wealth that is created from doing a law-job is wealth that comes from the support of, allegiance to, and active promotion of a client’s business. (more…)
Richard Dennis
“when you start, you ought to be as bad a trader as you are ever going to be.”
“I always say that you could publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80 percent as good as what we taught people. What they couldn’t do is give them the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.”
“my research on individual stocks shows that price fluctuations are closer to random than they are in commodities. Demonstrably, commodities are trending and, arguably, stocks are random.”
“There will come a day when easily discovered and lightly conceived trend-following systems no longer work. It is going to be harder to develop good systems.”
“The secret is being as short term or as long term as you can stand, depending on your trading style. It is the imtermediate term that picks up the vast majority of trend followers. The best strategy is to avoid the middle like the plague.”
Paul Tudor Jones
“First if all, never play macho man in the market. Second, never overtrade. My major problem was not the number of points I lost on the trade, but that I was trading far too many contracts relative to the equity in the accounts that I handled.” (more…)
MSCI has launched the MSCI EM Beyond BRIC Index, a new subset of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
The new index comprises seventeen countries and excludes the ‘BRIC’ economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which currently represent around 40% of the wider emerging markets index. MSCI said the new index offered a way to ‘track and evaluate the emerging markets opportunity set for those wishing to invest in countries outside the BRIC region’.
The index is market cap weighted, but the weighting towards the larger markets of Korea, South Africa and Taiwan is capped on a quarterly basis at 15% to ensure greater diversification. This gives greater prominence to smaller emerging market countries.
As it stands, after Korea, South Africa and Taiwan, the largest weightings in the index will be towards Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Chile, Columbia, the Philippines, Turkey and Poland all have a weighting in excess of 2%.
MISTAKE ONE
Lack of Knowledge and No Plan
It amazes us that some people expect to trade the stock market successfully without any effort. Yet if they want to take up golf, for example, they will happily take some lessons or at least read a book before heading out onto the course. (more…)
Richard Donchian blazed the trail with the straightforward notion that trading many markets at the same time with the same rules — works:
“When I first got into commodities, no one was interested in a diversified approach. There were cocoa men, cotton men, grain men … they were worlds apart. I was almost the first one who decided to look at all commodities together. Nobody before had looked at the whole picture and had taken a diversified position with the idea of cutting losses short and going with a trend.”
Don’t get hung up on the word “commodity.” His quotation is probably 60 years ago. The key is the STRATEGY, not the INSTRUMENT.
I simply cut my losses and by doing so kept them small. I’ve had my share of bad decisions in my trading career and keeping losses small in order to avoid huge losses is the toughest part.
Why is that so? From a psychological point of view nobody wants to sell at a loss as in most situations in life making mistakes and admitting them is associated with being a loser. That’s why most people prefer sticking to a losing position. They don’t want to be labeled a loser. So they start hoping their position will turn around and end up being a huge winner. The stock then keeps tanking. Then they hope they will be able to sell for a break even. The stock then goes down even more. That’s when being objective and balanced isn’t possible anymore. Losses have become huge and they are trapped.
The cost is simply huge. You lost money. You lost time. There’s an opportunity cost as well as during that time other stocks would have made you a profit. You lost huge amounts of energy as you couldn’t get this stock out of your mind.
Notice I’ve made ample use of the word ‘huge’. Avoid huge losses at all cost. Avoid thinking in terms of huge gains as well. Stay balanced. Stay focused and calm.
1) Oil is priced in dollars.
2) Oil trades in Dollars and Euros right now in spite of the pricing unit being dollars. OPEC has recently admitted this fact.
3) Clearly oil does not have to be priced in Euros to trade in Euros, or for that matter priced in Yen to trade in Yen. The same applies to any major currency.
4) Neither Venezuela or Iran hold any dollar reserves. To the extent that either is taking trades in dollars, there is clearly nothing forcing them to hold dollars. By extension there is nothing forcing any OPEC country to hold dollars if it doesn’t want to.
5) It takes less than a second for Forex trades to take place. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, one can sell any currency they want and buy any other currency.
6) The above logic applies to any currency and any commodity.
7) Nothing is stopping anyone at any time anywhere from selling dollars for whatever currency they want to hold. Nor is anything stopping anyone anywhere at any time from selling any major currency for U.S. Dollars.
8) Because currency conversion is instantaneous no one has to hold U.S. dollars to buy oil, copper, gold, iron, lead, wheat, soybeans, or anything else.
9) Dollars are held (or not held) for reasons totally unrelated to pricing unit. Some of those reasons are political, some are based on sentiment, some on trade patterns and trade relationships, and some to suppress the value of local currencies to improve exports.
10) Currencies float and so do the price of oil and commodities. Pricing oil (or any other commodity) in Euros will not cause a price change in dollars. Look at gold which is simultaneously priced in everything as proof.
Dictionary meaning of emotional :actuated, effected, or determined by emotion rather than reason
Dictionary meaning of intelligence : the faculty of understanding
If you are a trader already and have money in the stock market then you know how you react or respond when your trades don’t happen the way you want them to. It is just a matter of learning from your trades and not being attached to them. It is a good idea to have some money to donate so that when the market hasn’t gone your way, you know that the loss is not really a big deal and that you can make it back. (more…)
Because they would rather lose money than admit they’re wrong. What is the ultimate rationalization of a trader in a losing position? “I’ll get out when I’m even.” Why is getting out even so important? Because it protects the ego. I became a winning trader when I was able to say, “To hell with my ego, making money is more important.”
