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The Coin Flip Test And Trade Probability -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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Since we are human merchants and we like what we do, executing the above-portrayed model would require a ton of tolerance and it would likewise be extremely exhausting. we better utilize a computerized forex-system to execute this coin-choice exchanging model. all we would need to do is truly utilize a guarded hazard the board of most extreme 1% per exchange, on the grounds that a half winning-likelihood would not imply that we would not need to confront 10 or 15 failure exchanges a column! recollect that these probabilities become valid in the long run!

since we like to inhale and encounter the business sectors, and we obviously need to exchange physically utilizing specialized examination or key news, we should now have a more critical investigation of the universe of cash the board, stop misfortune, take benefit, and obviously additionally the satisfactory exchange volume. since section 1 of this article arrangement, we realize how a dealer can ensure his record by straightforward RISK MANAGEMENT counts. this is totally vital and its significance can’t be rehashed regularly enough!

Presently, in the comic, sadly, flipism didn’t turn out to be well for Donald. A coin flip for every choice brought about a progression of incidents for poor Donald. Amusingly, however, so as to bargain out some proper recompense, Donald managed to pursue down the con artist Professor Batty by finding the misrepresentation behind the correct entryway dependent on a coin flip, so maybe the way of thinking holds some legitimacy. In spite of the fact that I don’t really advocate carrying on with a real existence dependent on coin flips, incidentally, coin flips and the hidden factual rules that administer coin flips are especially powerful when applied to certain issues normally looked in the information.

without utilizing any investigation technique each time you open exchange, you have a half possibility that the exchange goes toward you! the reality of the situation may prove that in 10 exchanges it goes 8 or multiple times toward you, or against you… be that as it may, in 1.000 exchanges you will have indirect 500 victors and 500 washouts. you can contrast that with tossing a coin. the more regularly you toss a coin the more you can be certain, that the scientific probability will appear and affirm the half possibility for each side of the coin or every bearing of an exchange. knowing this, all you need to do ist to pick an SL/TP-RATIO of 1:2. for instance 20 pips SL and 40 pips TP. in the event that you currently win each second exchange (half), you will naturally make benefits!

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Dow ends 526 points higher, extending win streak to three days

  
Analysis, US Market
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U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday, but off the session’s best levels, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested more fiscal stimulus may be needed as the American economy may only make a slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rising coronavirus cases in several U.S. states are also are concern for investors, even though retail sales and industrial production data show the economy is slowly recovering, and progress on the development of potential therapeutic drugs has been reported.

How did benchmarks fare?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +2.04% rose 526.82 points, or 2%, to end at 26,289.98. The S&P 500 index SPX, +1.89% added 58.15 points to close at 3,124.74, a gain of 1.9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +1.74% advanced 169.84 points, or 1.8%, to end at 9,895.84.

All three benchmarks extended their win streak to three straight sessions, but finished below their best levels of the day.

Oil rallies to the highs of the week

  
Analysis, Crude
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WTI crude at the best levels since Friday

WTI crude at the best levels since Friday
There was a huge build in US oil supplies in data released today but the market has shaken it off. That’s a great sign for the bulls and it comes — in part — due to draws in products.
I think this could lead to some short-term upside but WTI needs to get above $56 to really make any headway.

European shares mostly higher. Spain’s Ibex up 0.9%. UK FTSE flat.

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Modest gains for the major indices

The European stock markets are closed with major indices are closing higher.  Spain’s Ibex rose 0.9%.  UK FTSE was flat.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.2%
  • France’s CAC, +0.3%
  • UK’s FTSE, flat
  • Spains Ibex, +0.9%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.67%
In the European debt market, yields for the benchmark 10 year sector are closing lower.
Modest gains for the major indices

In other markets:

  • spot gold is up $9.28 or 0.60% at $1510.50
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.95 or -1.65% at $58.37.  Crude oil inventories rose 1058K which was higher than the -2250K estimate.
IN the US stock market, major indices are lower:
  • S&P index -9.37 points or -0.31% at 2996.40
  • NASDAQ index -29.86 points or -0.36% at 2156.29
  • Dow industrial average -84.58 points or -0.31% at 27026.68
In the US debt market yields are also lower and trading near the lows for the day.
US yields are trading at the lows for the day

European shares and the session lower on the day

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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10 year benchmark interest rates are also lower

The major European stock indicesare closed and showing losses for the day. The provisional closes are showing
  • German DAX, -0.84%
  • France’s CAC, -0.32%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.54%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.72%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, unchanged

In the benchmark 10 year notes, yields are also lower but off the lower extremes.

10 year benchmark interest rates are also lowerIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold is near unchanged levels at $1426.30. It was lower on the day at $1414.73 before reversing back to the upside. At the lows, the contract got close to the 100 hour moving average at 1413.87 (the low reached $1414.73).

Seven Sins of Trading

  
  Education
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7numbers1. Trading an inappropriate position size.
Simply put…if you risk too much, you’ll lose too much. In my eyes, this is the single most important rule of trading. Risking only 1-2% of an acct value is crucial to staying in the game.

2. Not knowing when to take the loss.
If you cannot answer the questions “Where am I taking the loss,” and “Where is my profit target” then stay out of the market. If you leave these decisions for later, then you will make them emotionally, which will be the worst decisions a trader can make.
3. Trading on someone else’s research or recommendation.
We have all heard stock tips thrown our way. Sometimes we might even hear people throw out potential trades that they are watching and become tempted to jump in. Sometimes I throw out stocks that I am trading and I am watching. The problem is that you might not know what this person is watching for, what strategy this stock fits, or what types of efforts are thrown into their research. If you take these stocks into consideration, make sure they are trades you would have likely come across on your own by conducting your own research. (more…)

Not A One Way Train

  
  Education
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Words of wisdom from Dave Landry’s new book, The Layman’s Guide To Trading Stocks:

Wall Street Myth 1: The market always goes up longer term

It seems to be universally preached that the market “always goes up longer term.” And, all you have to do is buy a diversified mutual fund or index fund and wait. The problem is that markets do not always go up longer term. Well, I suppose it all depends on what you mean by longer term.

Suppose you bought stocks in 1929 at the market peak. Provided you could have held through a 90% loss, it would then have taken you a quarter of a century just to get back to breakeven.

Let’s say you bought stocks in the mid-1960’s. Your return would have been almost zero until the market finally broke out in 1983, which was 17 years later.

When I began this chapter, I was concerned that there might be a “that was then, this is now” mentality. After all, the benchmark S&P 500 wasn’t far below breakeven from the 2000 peak. I thought I was going to have to make a strong case for not buying and holding. Unfortunately for the buy and hold crowd, the market made my case for me. The bear market that began in late 2007 would turn out to be the worst since 1929. By March 2009, the S&P was at 13-year lows. From these lows, the market will have to rally over 200 percent just to get to breakeven.

At more than one cocktail party, I have had people laugh in my face when I tell them that the market can go 25 years or more without going up. This has made for some heated discussions and awkward social situations. I have since learned from Dale Carnegie and my wife Marcy to just nod my head and enjoy my drink. Do not take my word for it, just look at the charts and grab me a Black and Tan while you are at it!

Howard Seidler-Trading Quotes

  
  Education
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The single most important element to being successful in the markets is having a plan. First, a plan forces discipline, which is an essential ingredient to successful trading. Second, a plan gives you a benchmark against which you can measure your performance.

It’s important to distinguish between respect for the market and fear of the market. While it’s essential to respect the market to assure preservation of capital, you can’t win if you’re fearful of losing. Fear will keep you from making correct decisions.

FEAR

  
  Education
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No, not the fear you’re thinking of, the other kind of fear, the fear of missing out.

Many people believe there are two emotions that traders feel, fear and greed, I disagree, it’s only fear.  The fear of loss and the fear of not having enough.  There’s a difference between being greedy and being fearful of not having enough, and it’s important.  Greed is defined by the excessive desire to possess wealth or goods.  Synonyms include lust and gluttony.  The fear of not having enough is very different, and I believe that is what drives market participants.

Trading is inherently a competitive exercise.  We look across the desk at the guy next to us and see that he made X amount of dollars today and we made less.  We look at the major averages as benchmarks, we listen to people taking profits on our StockTwits stream and feel both happy for them and wanting to punch them in the face for making a better trade on the same stock.  It’s only natural.  And when the market is moving well, not being involved while everyone else is, while your benchmark is climbing, traders can feel a considerable amount of fear.

I’ve felt this many times, the fear of not having enough.  And I’ve become pretty good at gauging both my own emotions regarding this and the pulse of the market as a whole.  Many times this emotion can be seen exhibited in the price action through a blow off top where price accelerates at the end of a big move and then reverses sharply.  Intermediate term swing and position trading is about staying with the trend and not getting shaken out, while managing your risk well. (more…)

Markets are changing all the time

  
  Education
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You have to have the ability to change and see how the markets are changing and adapt to it. That’s a constant process. That’s why I think you see some people do well for four or five years and then just disappear.

History can be a useful benchmark but only if everything  is put into the right context. Markets are dynamic and people’s reactions are different. It is much more subtle and nuanced than looking at what happened the last time.

No setup works all the time and in all types of market environment. The success rate of any setup fluctuates in cycles – there are periods when it is high and periods when it is low. Most successful speculators have specialized in a small number of setups. The question is, do you change when the market dynamics change and do you adapt new setups or do you wait for the proper market environment to come back before you risk any money?

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