Archives of “Australian dollar” tag

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Euro Stoxx index falls for the first time in 11 trading sessions

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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European indices move lower today

The major European indices have closed lower today.

  • The Euro Stoxx index fell for the first time in 11 trading sessions (10 higher closes).
  • The German Dax came off of a record levels.
  • The France’s CAC could not reach its all-time high from 2000
A look at the provisional closes shows:
  • German DAX, -0.5%
  • France’s CAC, -0.9%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -1.0%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.83%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.85%
The Euro Stoxx index fell -0.7%.
In other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold plus $5.50 or 0.32% at $1784.85.
  • Spot silver is up for cents or 0.21% $23.75
  • WTI crude oil futures are down $0.35 or -0.49% at $67.60
  • bitcoin is trading down $773 at $46,248. The digital currency traded above $48,000 today
In the US stock market, the major indices are lower but off their lowest levels:
  • Dow is down -79 points or -0.22% at 35436
  • S&P index is down -16.29 points or -0.36% at 4451.53
  • NASDAQ is down 125 points -0.85% 14697.65
In the forex market, the CHF is now the strongest of the majors while the CAD remains the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains vs the CAD, AUD and NZD and declines vs the JPY and CHF. The greenback is near unchanged levels vs the EUR and GBP.

Eurostoxx futures +0.7% in early European trading

  
  Global Indices
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A bit of catch-up play in early trades

  • German DAX futures +0.6%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.8%
  • Spanish IBEX futures +0.4%
European indices close the day near the lows yesterday, down by over 2% across the board, missing out on the late recovery in US equities towards the latter stages.
Hence, the gains here are largely due to some catch-up play and belies the more tepid and cautious risk mood to kick start the session.
US futures aren’t doing a whole lot, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures keeping at flat levels at the moment. Major currencies are also mostly little change besides some mild strength in the yen, with AUD/USD seen a little weaker under its 100-day moving average.

Eurostoxx futures +0.5% in early European trading

  
Global Indices, Uncategorized
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Some mild optimism flowing in early trades

  • German DAX futures +0.6%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.4%
  • Spanish IBEX futures +0.4%
US futures have also moved higher in the past hour, with S&P 500 futures now up ~0.7% while Nasdaq futures have pared losses to flat levels now and that is feeding to some slight positive momentum to start European morning trade.
In the currencies space, the aussie is also ticking a little higher with AUD/USD now testing 0.7300 and the confluence of its key hourly moving averages @ 0.7294-13.
USD/CAD is also nudged lower from 1.3110 to 1.3090 and testing the confluence of its own key hourly moving averages @ 1.3086-91 currently.

CFTC commitment of traders: EUR longs increase to 200K (all time largest long position).

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR long 200K vs 180K long last week. Longs increased by 20K
  • GBP short 3K vs 15K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
  • JPY long 27K vs 31K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K
  • CHF long 17K vs 12K long last week. Longs increase by 5K
  • AUD short 1K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • NZD 0K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 30k vs 23K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K

Highlights:

  • EUR longs continue to rise and are at new record long position at 200K. The largest short position all time is at -227K
  • GBP position has been whittled down to near unchanged after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020
  • AUD and NZD speculative positions are near unchanged
  • CAD shorts are the more or less, the only short currency position (long USD position).
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs spike by 32K to a record long level

  
Analysis, Forex
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Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

 

  • EUR long 157K vs 125K long last week. Longs increased by 32K
  • GBP short 25K vs 15K short last week. Shorts increased by 10K
  • JPY long 29K vs 19K long last week. Longs increased by 10K
  • CHF long 8K vs 7K long last week. Longs increase by 1K
  • AUD short 5K vs 0K long last week. Shorts increased by 5K
  • NZD short 1K vs 2K last week. NZD switches from long to short. 3K change
  • CAD short 13k vs 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
Highlights:
The BIG HIGHLIGHT for the week is in the EUR.  The EUR longs spiked up by 32K to 157K in the current week to a record high for long positions. The move higher is corresponding to higher EURUSD prices. The price of the EURUSD has been up for 6 consecutive weeks.  The long position started to move more to the upside during the May 19 week when the position was at 72K.  The EURUSD during that week was down at 1.0800. The price high today reached to 1.1908 before backing off.  Nice trade for the longs.
Of course, a concern for markets that get too long or short, is that there can be a squeeze the other way if prices start to lose trend momentum.   As a result, be careful of too much of a good thing, but let the technicals tell the story. They have been bullish.
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC_
The GBP shorts, however, increased by 10K to 25K (still much lower than the EUR longs) while the currency has moved higher.
The JPY longs increased and the USDJPY moved down (higher JPY) into early trading today. However, the price snapped back higher and nearly erased the full move lower this week in a single day.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.59% at 22,945.50

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Japanese stocks boosted by more upbeat Wall Street sentiment

Nikkei 15-07

The late surge by US stocks overnight is helping to give Asian equities a decent lift in trading today, though Chinese and Hong Kong stocks are weighed down by US-China tensions after Trump removed Hong Kong’s special status earlier in the day.

The Hang Seng is seen at flat levels now after trading in the red earlier while the Shanghai Composite has pared some losses to be down by 0.2% currently.
Elsewhere, US futures are still keeping more upbeat with S&P 500 futures up by ~0.8%.
That is keeping the likes of the aussie and kiwi more underpinned ahead of European morning trade, with AUD/USD flirting with the 0.7000 handle while NZD/USD is trying to crack back above its key hourly moving averages at 0.6552-69.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 2.22% at 22,784.74

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Asian equities buoyed to kick start the new week

Nikkei 13-07

It has been a solid session for Asian equities, with the Nikkei closing at a one-month high while we are also seeing the Hang Seng post 1.1% gains and the Shanghai Composite also seen higher by 1.9% currently.

The positive spillovers from US trading at the end of last week is helping, but also the fact that US futures are keeping more optimistic so far today.
Some market participants are pointing to this Pfizer, BioNTech vaccine story as a factor, following the more positive results that were reported two weeks ago here.
In any case, risk is on and the market is looking to keep the more positive mood going into European trading today. As such, the dollar is weaker across the board alongside the yen, with AUD/USD hovering around 0.6980 currently.

AUD/USD to drop back to 0.64 by year end – global economy weakening, China retaliation

  
Analysis, Forex
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A brief summary from a late week Rabobank note on the Australian dollar:

  • investors are currently over-estimating the ability of the global economy to bounce back from the pandemic
Combined with:
  • any news that China could be targeting Australian exports in retaliation for the government’s political stance would also leave AUD vulnerable
Rabo’s view is thus:
  • we see risk of a drop in sentiment by the end of the year 
  • likely to drag AUD/USD lower
  • forecast AUD/USD at 0.64 on a six-month view
A brief summary from a late week Rabobank note on the Australian dollar:

AUD/USD falls to two-week low amid poor data and firmer US dollar

  
Analysis, Forex
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AUD/USD falls to its lowest level since 24 June

AUD/USD H1 09-07

The pair is hitting a fresh low of 0.6936 on the day now as the aussie is dragged lower by poor business confidence data earlier and some notable strength in the greenback in the past hour of trading during the European morning.
That’s the lowest level the pair has traded since 24 June as sellers continue to stay in near-term control and are looking for a move towards 0.6900 ahead of Fed chair Powell’s testimony tomorrow and on Thursday.

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