Latest Posts
rss
Yesterday BANK Nifty proved KUBER BHANDAR to our Subscribers
Don’t drop your Jaw …… Literally it was
The Message: Below 9281, non-stop slide upto 9061, 8988. Just Sell
What Happened: It crashed to 9011, Whooping gain of Rs.270
All subscribers would well be busy in celebrating the mullah !!!!!
Just see Nifty: Leave our 5048 Laxman Rekha, it failed to cross y’day high of 5024 and tumbled to 4917 against my level of 4901……… crash of 92 points. I detailed the tiresomeness of markets in Web-site.
Do I need to write of Tata Communication & Suzlon hits.
Now what is the difference between reading WEBSITE and subscribing to my MESSAGES? Write-up is a probability before the market opens and Messages/Promptings are push actions to subscribers under real possible conditions in live market.
Recollect the old adage: Proof of the pudding is in ………. !!!!!!!!!!!
2 Ways to Fail at Trading
Misunderstanding how trading works. Trading is a game of probabilities. No matter what methodology you are using—fundamental, macro or technical; highly quantitative, intuitive, seat of pants, or blend; long term, short term, daytrading—at the end of the day, the expected value of your trades has to be positive, or you aren’t going to make money. There is no free lunch. Though you may get lucky (or unlucky) on a set of trades, over a large set of trades, the Law of Large Numbers rules with an iron fist. There is no way to “game” the system. You can’t take small trades with tiny risk, you can’t sell time premium, you can’t find some magic technical pattern. Yes, all of these things can be part of a working methodology, but that methodology has to have a positive expectancy. To put it simply, it has to work. (Now, you can see that points 1-4 are really basically the same point!)
Be overconfident. Markets punish hubris and overconfidence with remarkable consistency. (Victor Niederhoffer has written poignantly on this subject.) Overconfidence can hit in many ways. Industry statistics show that most small trading accounts lose money, so, you have to ask yourself, why will you be different? (Hint: answers like “I have a passion for markets. I was successful in this business or this sport. I’m a driven, detail-oriented person,” are probably not strong enough answers. Dig deep. Why will you succeed where so many others have tried and failed?) Overconfidence can creep in in other ways too. After a long string of winning trades, some traders are tempted to get more aggressive and increase their risk… and now they are trading too big, so bad things happen. There’s a sweet spot here—you have to have a degree of confidence, you can’t be afraid, but you have to stay humble. If you don’t, the market will make you humble, one way or another.
2012 Inspirations: Do Something
Do Something
View more presentations from Sarah Kathleen Peck
Apple Market Cap Crosses $ 700 billion ,India's Forex Reserve $ 315.55 Billion
Technically Yours/ASR TEAM/BARODA
Tegmark, Life 3.0 -Book Review
We don’t know whether artificial intelligence will ever attain the level of artificial general intelligence, with the ability to accomplish virtually any goal, including learning. That is, as the title of Max Tegmark’s illuminating book (Knopf, 2017) puts it, we don’t know whether we will ever reach Life 3.0. Even so, as we enter the age of AI, it is important to think about what sort of future we want so “we can find shared goals to plan and work for.” “If a technologically superior AI-fueled civilization arrives because we built it, … we humans have great influence over the outcome—influence that we exerted when we created the AI.”
Tegmark posits three stages of life: biological evolution (Life 1.0), cultural evolution (Life 2.0), and technological evolution (Life 3.0). In Life 1.0, with bacteria being a good example, both the hardware and software are evolved rather than designed. With Life 2.0, our current status as human beings, the hardware (DNA) is evolved but the software is largely designed, through learning. Life 3.0 will design both its hardware and software. “In other words, Life 3.0 is the master of its own destiny, finally fully free from evolutionary shackles.”
Tegmark is a professor of physics at MIT and president of the Future of Life Institute, which advocates for beneficial AI and AI-safety research. Both projects involve a heavy dose of ethical debate and decision making. For instance, should we have autonomous weapons, which select and engage targets without human intervention? The author and a colleague wrote an open letter in 2015 arguing against autonomous weapons, a letter signed by over 3,000 AI and robotics researchers and 17,000 others.
Life 3.0 engages the reader in a wide range of future scenarios, from those where superintelligence peacefully coexists with humans (even if, in one scenario, as a zookeeper) to those where humanity goes extinct and is replaced by AIs (or by nothing, if we self-destruct). Tegmark admits that “there’s absolutely no consensus on which, if any, of these scenarios are desirable, and all involve objectionable elements. This makes it all the more important to continue and deepen the conversation around our future goals, so that we don’t inadvertently drift or steer in an unfortunate direction.”
7 rules for dealing with risk
1. Overcome Fear. Fear clouds judgment.
2. Remain Flexible. Surprise outcomes may require a change of plan.
3. Take reasoned risks. Risk can be good if the odds are in your favour.
4. Prepare to be wrong. Plan in advance how to deal with unfavourable outcomes.
5. Actively seek reality. See the world as it is rather than as you want it to be.
6. Respond quickly to change. If your plan calls for some action in the face of unfavourable outcomes, don’t delay.
7. Focus on decisions, not outcomes. In the face of risk, good choices can have bad outcomes, and bad choices can have good outcomes.
From :Inside the Mind of the Turtles :Curtis M Faith
The Trading Beast
The markets are no place to be unsure of yourself and wishy-washy, it is not a place for 2nd guesses, wishing, hoping, or gambling. If you want to win in this jungle you need to be an unstoppable beast .
Complete confidence in your system and method. You do not jump around in your trading or doubt yourself, it is not about you, it is the system. Either it wins long term or it doesn’t. Either you have confidence in it or you don’t, make up your mind.
- You control risk. You do not expose yourself to being ruined because your bet size is consistently what you are comfortable with. Ten losses in a row is only a small draw down. If you are not afraid of ten losses in a row, what is stressful? NOTHING.
- You play follow the leader. You are not the lone wolf, you are going with the market not trying to predict it. Your entries and exits are based on historical patterns not your personal opinions, you are not trying to beat the market you are trying to be on its side, it always wins.
- You will not quit.Your exit strategy for your trading career? Never. You plan to never quit playing the greatest game on earth. You are a trader, that is what you do. Not quitting in most areas of life means that you eventually win big, the market is no different.
- You don’t need a guru. Your winning system is your guru. You don’t need to ask for a fish, you know how to fish. You only listen if you can learn how to catch more and bigger fish and somebody is a better fisherman than you.
The markets eat up lambs, chickens, pigs, and sloths. However beasts eat well off their prey.
It's loading.
Just watch these 4 things to get success in Trading
Trust your gut If something looks like crap and smells like crap, then chances are, it is crap. Listen more to your gut to tell you when to cut a loss and move on. - Keep it simple If something is working, keep doing it. There aren’t any bonus points for being clever. The money is the same color no matter how you make it. So do the simple things and chip away at the profits. I once had a client who felt he had to do complicated trades in order to make money. Bottom line was, he was wrong. Keeping it simple is the proven strategy for success.
- Probabilities don’t lie If you’re not carefully tracking the metrics on your trades, you might as well be gambling at a casino. Make it a point to track the data on your trades and study them. That way, you can do more of what’s working and less of what’s not.
- Avoid speculating and predicting I can’t begin to tell you how many times I see traders blow up their accounts because they try to speculate or predict what’s going to happen in the future. The simple fact is, no one knows. Even the best traders have a winning percentage of around 50 percent. That means successful trading is not about being right, it’s about what you do when you’re wrong. The bottom line is, trade what you see, not what you think.
Trust your gut If something looks like crap and smells like crap, then chances are, it is crap. Listen more to your gut to tell you when to cut a loss and move on.