Comments to reporters
- If we look 1-2 years out, we’ll be looking at “a very, very strong employment market”
- There are very large amounts of job openings and lots of people looking for work and the process of filling those vacancies is slower than anticipated. “It may just take longer”
- Notes that vaccinations should diminish the reluctance of people to return to work along with restart of daycare
- Unemployment insurance for around 15m people will end by the September
- I would expect that we would see strong job creation building up over the summer
- We have to be humble about our ability to understand the data
- Inflation has come in above expectations in the coming months but prices driving that are items that are directly affected by the reopening
- You can see this meeting as the ‘talking about talking about’ meeting
- We did not have a discussion of whether liftoff is appropriate in any particular year
This is the end of the ‘outcome-based Fed’. Powell is making all kinds projections about the coming months with an unusual amount of confidence that goes against what he’s been saying for months.
It’s almost like they saw something in the numbers and projections that spooked them. All that talk about letting inflation run hot and waiting to see numbers to ensure a ‘broad and inclusive’ recovery is dead.