The low for the day reached $31000 so far today
The IRS Chief Rettig is saying:
- Congress should provide clear authority requiring large crypto currency transfers to be reported to the IRS.
A problem with the ransomeware problems of late is that tracking bitcoin was thought to be impossible to do and that it promoted bad actors. Yesterday, the US government said that they got back most of the ransom paid by Continental Pipeline. That has led to some uneasiness in the crypto currency world where players assumed their accounts were sacred only to them.
This declaration from Rettig is a step in the regulation direction for crypto.
The price is currently down $-2240 or -6.49% at $32,267. The low price reached $31,004.
France’s CAC, and UK FTSE 100 close higher
The major European indices and the day with mixed results in an up and down session
The provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, -0.2%. The intraday high reached +0.32%. The low was at -0.27%
- France’s CAC, +0.2%. The intraday high reached +0.47%. The low was at -0.04%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.4%. The intraday high reached 0.63%. The low was at -0.05%
- Spain’s Ibex, -0.1%. The intraday high reached +0.45%. The low extended to -0.58%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.1%. The intraday high reached +0.39%. The low extended to -0.48%
In other markets as European/London traders look to exit:
- SPot gold is down $-7.20 or -0.38% at $1892.
- Spot silver is down $0.26 or -0.96% at $27.62.
- WTI crude oil futures are up $0.44 or 0.64% at $69.67. The high price has extended to $69.81. Recall from yesterday the high peaked at $70 even and found willing sellers. The price today is off it’s lows at $68.47
- Bitcoin is trading down $1760 or minus 08.0 percent at $31,730.
World Bank on global growth
- Global growth to reach 5.6% 2021 up from 4.1% in January. Strongest postrecession pace in 80 years
- Gains in global growth comes after a -3.5% contraction in 2020
- Forecasts 2022 global growth at 4.3% and 2023 growth at 3.1%
- Increasing global growth reflects stronger US fiscal support, and highly unequal vaccine access
- Sees US 2020 growth that 6.8%. That is up from 5.5% in January. In 2020 the US contracted by -3.5%
- Sees China’s 2021 growth at 8.5% versus January’s 7.9%. Contracted -2.3% in 2020.
- Sees global inflation to rise about one percentage point in 2021. May not warrant a policy response
- Long-term expectations point to continued low and stable inflation.
- Market concerns about persistent higher inflation in advanced economies could cause emerging market borrowing costs to rise
- Sees emerging markets ex-China growth at 4.4% in 2021 versus 3.4% estimate in January. In 2020 emerging markets ex-China felt -4.3%
Some pretty decent increases in growth forecasts. Not much on inflation in their report which is the driving force for the markets. The US CPI data will be released on Thursday with expectations of a 0.4% rise after a 0.8% increase last month.
WTI down by 0.9% to $68.60 currently
The $70 level is a key psychological resistance and that is keeping a lid on the latest bullish in oil over the past two to three weeks.
Price is backing away from the figure level to $68.60 currently but it surely will not be the last time oil runs up against said resistance level over the next few months.
The upside run looks to be running into some profit-taking but in the big picture, it is tough to handicap oil market sentiment at the moment.
The Iran issue is still a wildcard but with OPEC+ playing their cards right and the virus situation improving globally across major economies, the outlook is still solid.
There are a lot of punters pinning oil for a move to $100 in the year ahead and given how things are shaping up at the moment, it isn’t too far-fetched to be honest.
Sure, there will be risk factors evolving along the way but as things stand, the fundamentals are still working in favour of oil bulls at the moment and there’s no reason to turn the other cheek just yet.
Watch out for a test of $68 as that might attract some dip buyers before the next swing region closer to the $67 level.
Tepid tones observed in early trades
- German DAX futures -0.1%
- UK FTSE futures flat
US futures are also not showing much poise on the day with S&P 500 futures flat and Dow futures down 0.1%. Nasdaq futures are up slightly by 0.1%.
In Asia, The Nikkei closes down 0.2% while the Topix climbed 0.1% with Chinese equities a little more subdued as the Hang Seng is down 0.3% and Shanghai Composite down 0.7% going into the closing stages of the day.
Overall, risk sentiment is not suggestive of any major tilt for now as tech saw some inflow overnight with bond yields keeping on the lower side after Friday’s payrolls.
Those lovable buffoons at the Global Times with a tweet this time:
There is a kernel of truth in this forecast, and there are developments underway in China that’ll likely mean reduced reliance on Australian iron ore even prior to 2030, perhaps from as soon as 2025. China is scouring the world for other sources, and there are proposed changes to Dalian iron ore futures deliverable grades, from 62% (minimum 60%) to 61% (allowable range down to 56%) (Westpac the source for those numbers). This opens up delvieries from countries such as South Africa.
A piece from the Peterson Institute on rising prices and rising concerns of running out of critical resources.
The article argues that:
- Peak arguments resurface over and over because they both seem intuitively plausible and play on humanity’s fundamental fear of scarcity.
- But they are almost always wrong.
Its an interesting piece, worth a read. I guess the critical bit is that “almost” word 😀