Could mean that the main meeting will be pushed back
The OPEC+ JMMC monitoring committee meeting has been pushed back from tomorrow until Thursday at 1530 Vienna time.
That meeting usually sets the stage for OPEC itself and its recommendations often form the backbone of what OPEC does, or at least sets the negotiating parameters.
This time though it will be wedged in between the OPEC meeting and the OPEC+ meeting. This is the new schedule, according to Amena Bakr from Energy Intel.
- Opec meeting at 13:00 Vienna time
- JMMC at 15:30
- Opec plus meeting at 17:00
The lack of time between them sounds to me like everything is decided. The leak last week was a 500k bpd increase in August. I would expect upside risks but OPEC might want to play it safe and keep supply tight until there is some clarity on Iran’s barrels.
The OPEC+ JTC meeting has ended with no policy recommendations. This according to OPEC+ sources.
The sources also report that OPEC+ JTC keeps 2021 global oil demand growth that 6 million barrels per day.
The price of WTI crude oil futures is trading back below its 100 hour moving average at $73.31. The next target comes in at the 200 hour moving average at $72.71.
In trading today, the sellers tried to push the price below the 200 hour moving average, only to find support buyers against day lower channel trendline. More recently the traders took the price above the 100 hour moving average only to fail on that break higher.
Major indices moved to the upside
The major European indices are closing higher on the day. The provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, +0.9%
- France’s CAC, +0.2%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.25%
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.1%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.5%
in the US, the major indices are trading mixed:
- Dow up 94.08 points or 0.27% at 34377.35
- NASDAQ unchanged on the day at 14501.50
- S&P index +5.59 points or 0.13% at 4296.20
Coming up at 1340 GMT, ECB President Christine Lagard will give the keynote address.
- At the Brussels Economic Forum 2021
This forum is “the flagship annual economic event of the European Commission.”.
Seems to be something Brussels is looking forward to:
Noting in there that:
- Caution is also warranted given the nature of the demand recovery, which is subject to setbacks if COVID-19 outbreaks should once again rise, the ‘Delta’ variant is of particular concerns as it seems more transmissible.
Here are just a few countries that have introduced a renewed round of lockdowns that’ll limit the growth of demand. Restrictions tightened in parts of:
- South Africa
(there are more). Also note that in Europe, Spain and Portugal have imposed new restrictions on UK visitors. Hong Kong has done similar.
Still, analysts do expect OPEC+ to hike output (see post linked above for more).
TD have a note out on what they expect from this week’s OPEC-plus meeting (if you think of OPEC+ as Suadi + Russia you won’t be too far off the mark).
- With the OPEC+ production increases running their course in July, this week’s meeting is garnering plenty of attention as to what the next steps will be for the cartel
- We expect the cartel will increase production once again but will ultimately maintain a cautious approach that may only satisfy a portion of the expected deficits this summer
Huh. A ‘cautious’ approach like this makes sense if producers want to keep prices at these sorts of high levels. Caution is also warranted given the nature of the demand recovery, which is subject to setbacks if COVID-19 outbreaks should once again rise, the ‘Delta’ variant is of particular concerns as it seems more transmissible.
Central estimates for the supply increase are circa +0.5m bbls/day, the fresh output kicking in from August.