Moves above 100 day MA at 1.497% as well
The 10 year yield moved above its 100 day MA at 1.497% and also briefly breached the 1.50% as well. It will require staying above each of those levels to keep the upside move going. If that cannot happen, the bias remains to the downside.
German Dax lags (unchanged on the day)
The major European indices are closing the day with gains. The exception is the German DAX which is closing near unchanged levels. The provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, unchanged
- France’s CAC, +0.3%
- UKs FTSE 100, +0.3%
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.9%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.2%.
In other markets as European traders look to exit:
- Spot gold is down $-13.82 or -0.73% at $1864
- spot silver is up one cent or 0.04% at $27.92.
- WTI crude oil futures are up $0.46 or 0.65% at $71.36. That is off the intraday high of $71.78, but above the low at $70.65.
- Bitcoin remains above the $40,000 level at $40,713.35
In the US stock market, the Dow industrial average is moving lower. The latest casualty is J.P. Morgan which is now down -2% after comments from CEO Jamie Dimon.
- Dow -220 points or -0.63% at 34261.54
- S&P -11 points or -0.26% at 4236.31
- NASDAQ +33 points or 0.24% at 14102.43
In the US debt market, yields are higher with the 10 year up 3.88 basis points and
The benchmark 10 year yields in Europe are also higher with Spain 10 year up 3.4 basis points leading the way:
IN the forex, the NZD remains the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mixed with gains vs the JPY and CHF, and declines vs the EUR, CAD, NZD and AUD. The USD is near unchanged verse the GBP.
Dimon speaking at Morgan Stanley conference
Staying on the inflation theme, JP Morgans Jamie Dimon speaking at Morgan Stanley conference says that the bank is prepared for higher rates and more inflation.
In a somewhat surprise critical comment about his company, he says:
- JP Morgan did not have imagination to do what Square did
- The banking system is going to be in tough shape
- Will have to fight hard amid tough competition
JP Morgan stock is trading down -$2.77 or -1.73% to $157.52 after his comments.
PS. The NY Fed survey for May shows inflation expectations 1 year and 3 year ahead rose sharply.
Latest data released by Eurostat – 14 June 2021
- Prior +0.1%; revised to +0.4%
- Industrial production WDA +39.3% vs +37.4% y/y expected
- Prior +10.9%; revised to +11.5%
A solid beat and upward revisions as well, so overall that’s a good report as euro area industrial output shows a decent climb in April.
Production of durable goods was up 3.4%, capital goods 1.4%, and intermediate goods 0.8%. The only downside was non-durable goods, which fell 0.3% in April.
The statement is expected at 1700 GMT
There has been talk since the weekend that Johnson will delay the end of restrictions in the UK amid fears of virus variants, which he says is a “serious concern”.
The initial plan was to reopen everything “no earlier than 21 June” i.e. next week but that timeline may be pushed back now. Still, it is a bit of a minor hiccup after the progress made by the UK economy in the past two months.
Remarks by ECB president, Christine Lagarde, to Politico
- Hopes to present strategy review results by the end of summer
- We are on the road to recovery, squarely on the way to pre-pandemic levels
- Likely to be back there in Q1 2022
- Thinks that ECB has delivered in terms of policy support
In her own words, “not to brag about it, but we sure delivered” when asked on how the ECB has dealt with the whole pandemic response since last year.
Biden says “I’ll be very straightforward with him about our concerns”
The White House announced over the weekend that after the meeting Biden will conduct a press conference without Putin.
Relations between the US and Russia have cooled since Trump let office. Biden has referred to Putin as a killer.