Archives of “March 2021” month

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RKI warns that German coronavirus cases are growing exponentially again

  
Analysis, COVID-19

The institute’s virologist says that cases are up 20% in a week

The latest figures today aren’t out yet but yesterday’s report showed that the 7-day incidence rate has climbed up rather sharply in the past week to 82.9.
As a reminder, the key threshold is 50.0 so as to allow restrictions to be eased in regions which meet that figure. The latest snapshot isn’t too encouraging in that regard:

 

Germany

More on concerns in the US that China could invade Taiwan in an accelerated timeline

  
Analysis, Politics
The issue is gaining further attention in US media, this via Politico:
  • Top U.S. military officials are warning with increasing urgency that China could in the next few years invade Taiwan
  • It’s a timeline they say has been accelerated by the Trump administration’s repeated provocation of Beijing, China’s rapid military build-up, and recent indications that Taiwan could unilaterally declare its independence from the mainland.
  • “War over Taiwan would be unthinkable,” said Eric Sayers, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “A major challenge Washington faces is that Taiwan has been viewed by many as a 2035 planning problem. … The [Chinese army’s] capabilities have now matured to such a degree that this is no longer a dilemma we can afford to push off.”
Link to the article for more if you are interested.
taiwan

BoA oil forecasts – expect global demand to bounce, and then just keep on growing

  
Analysis, Crude

Oil analysts at Bank of America are forecasting Brent and WTI to average $63/bbl and $60/bbl (respectively) this year (calendar year 2021).

Our supply and demand forecasts suggest a 1.3mn b/d deficit in 2021
  • followed by a 170k b/d surplus in 2022 
DEMAND forecast from BoA:
global demand will rebound nearly 6mn b/d YoY in 2021 after falling 8.7mn b/d in 2020. 
  • During 2021-23, we forecast demand will grow by more than 9mn b/d, the fastest pace since the 1970s.
SUPPLY forecasts from the analysts also:
Non-OPEC supply should grow more than 1 mn b/d YoY in 2021 and an additional 2mn b/d in 2022. 
  • US supply to grow less than 200k b/d in 2021 and more than 1 mn b/d in 2022 thanks in part to robust NGL volumes. 
  • OPEC supplies are set to rise 800k b/d in 2021 and 2.1 mn b/d in 2022 and OPEC+ adds back supply and as Iran returns. 
Oil analysts at Bank of America are forecasting Brent and WTI to average $63/bbl and $60/bbl (respectively) this year (calendar year 2021). 

North Korea warns Biden that if it wants peace it needs to avoid ‘causing a stink’

  
Analysis, Politics

Party time is over for NK after four years of appeasement from the US.

NK state media issues a warning to the US:
  • warns the US President Biden’s administration that if it wants peace it needs to avoid ‘causing a stink’
Party time is over for NK after four years of appeasement from the US. 
Meanwhile, North Korea’s Kim Yo-jong adds that joint US-SK exercises are “aggressive war exercises”. Yo-jong is the sister of the big Kahuna.
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