Archives of “March 25, 2021” day
rssEURUSD lower for the third day in a row and trades to new 2021 low
Trades at lowest level since November 12
2% is the “proper place” for 10-year Treasury yields – JP Morgan Asset Management
The firm expects 10-year Treasury yields to eventually settle at 2%
“We’re first likely to see some consolidation in the 1.5-1.75% range as quarter-end brings rebalancing in multi-asset class accounts, flows from pension funds and insurance companies taking advantage of the higher yields and flows from Japan.”
A small real-world study shows that the vaccine is working well among frontliners
A study shared by the New England Journal of Medicine
In particular, among those who were fully vaccinated i.e. received both vaccine shots, only 4 of 8,121 employees had been newly infected by COVID-19.
Oil, EUR heading down in Asia morning trade
Oil is lower and int FX EUR/USD has dropped under is overnight low on approach to 1.1800 now.
- HK’s Hang Seng is -1.4% (the tech index on HK is doing much worse, down circa 4%)
- Shanghai Comp -0.6%
- Nikkei 225 in the green for now at +0.15%
One estimate says it may take 6 days to free the ship stuck in the Suez canal
One of the impacts of the complete blockage of the Cana; has been a jump in oil prices.
around 165 vessels representing 13m dwt are currently either waiting at either end of the canal or blocked from exiting.
total includes:
• 41 bulk carriers (2.9m dwt) including six capes and 20 panamax and supramaxes. Two bulk ore carriers
• 24 crude tankers, including three VLCCs and nine suezmaxes
• 33 containerships, including four of 197,000 dwt-plus (including Ever Given) which puts them in the 20,000 teu category.
• 16 LPG or LNG carriers
• 15 product tankers including three long range two ships. These will likely be carrying 90,000-tonne cargoes of jet fuel or diesel to Europe or the Mediterranean.
• Eight vehicle carriers
ICYMI – China, Russia vulnerable to dollar risks as sanctions from West multiply
While we await a little more activity in the Asia timezone a catch-up piece ICYMI via Reuters on a ‘theoretical hazard for Russia and China accessing global financial payments:
- Given the influence of the dollar and U.S. banks in global financial flows, the United States dominates the Belgium-based SWIFT financial messaging service, a network used by banks across the world to make transactions. It could in theory use this influence to reduce other countries’ access to the global financial system.
- Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam said last year she had to pile up cash at home as she was unable to open a bank account in the global financial centre since Washington sanctioned her after Beijing imposed a national security law on the city.
Did you know? Between 1980-2019 75% of SP500 $SPY returns have come from dividends
Here’s a forecast for S&P500 at 4,100 as a ‘base case’ this year (4,600 in most bullish scenario)
Scanning some research notes, this one to cheer up the stock market bulls after a down day.
- Our 2021 S&P 500 target of 4.100 is our base case. It is roughly the median of 15 upside scenarios that we examined. If our call proves too conservative, our analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could trade as high as 4,600 for a +20% full year gain – the most bullish scenarios we examined came close to this level.
- Among the eight downside scenarios we examined, which articulate our bear case for full year or interim downside if momentum breaks lower, several point to a pullback to the 3600 / 3700 area (mid single digit drop in percentage terms depending on the starting point used) or to -3,200 (mid to high teens dip in percentage terms depending on starting point).
An ugly day for the NASDAQ. Major indices close at lows
Dow turns negative at the close
- S&P index fell -21.38 points or -0.55% at 3889.14
- Nasdaq index fell -265.80 points or -2.01% at 12961.89
- Dow fell -3.09 points or -0.01% at 32420.06
- Russell 2000 fell -2.35% or -51.42 points at 2134.27
Big losers today included:
- Gamestop, -33.66% to $120.57. The company announced earnings after the close yesterday
- Koss, -21.06%
- Nio, -10.25%
- Bed Bath and beyond, -8.08%
- Zoom -7.25%
- Chewy, -6.91%
- Palantir, -5.91%
- Snowflake, -5.11%
- Beyond Meat, -5.0%
- Goodrx, -4.95%
- Teslas, -4.82%
- DoorDash, -4.73%
- Crowdstrike, -4.67%
- Airbnb, -4.41%
- Square, -4.33%
- Facebook, -2.93%
- Netflix, -2.68%
- Salesforce, -2.55%
- Intel, -2.33%
- Disney, -2.1%
- Apple, -2.01%
- Amazon, -1.51%
- Microsoft, -0.91%
- Boeing, -0.87%
- Alphabet, -0.35%
- Schlumberger, +2.81%
- Chevron, +2.74%
- Exxon Mobil, +2.06%
- Stryker, +1.86%
- DuPont, +1.82%
- Honeywell, +1.77%
- American Express, +1.73%
- Caterpillar, +1.36%
- Charles Schwab, +1.2%
- Home Depot, +1.05%
- Corning, +0.95%
- General Dynamics, +0.9%
- Boston scientific, +0.89%
- J.P. Morgan, +0.77%