Archives of “March 9, 2021” dayrss
German DAX closes at a record level.
The German DAX is closing at another record high for the second day in a row. The other major European indices are also closing higher for the day.
- German DAX, +0.6%
- France’s CAC, +0.5%
- UK’s FTSE 100, +0.3%
- Spain’s IBEX, +0.75%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.75%
- Spot gold +$32.10 or 1.91% at $1715.53.
- Spot silver plus $0.84 or 3.37% $25.97
- WTI crude oil futures down $0.85 or -1.3% at $64.20
- Bitcoin up $2460 or 4.75% at $54,338
- S&P index +68.5 points or 1.79% at 3889.65
- NASDAQ index up 424 points or 3.37% at 13033.50
- Dow industrial average up 262 point sort 0.83% at 32065
- 2 year 0.166%, +0.4 basis points
- 5 year 0.832%, -2.0 basis points
- 10 year 1.552%, -3 point basis points
- 30 year 2.275%, -4.0 basis points
OECD presents their latest economic forecasts, outlook
- 2021 global GDP forecast +5.6% (previously +4.2%)
- 2021 US GDP forecast +6.5% (previously +3.2%)
- 2021 Eurozone GDP forecast +3.9% (previously +3.6%)
- 2021 UK GDP forecast +5.1% (previously +4.2%)
Latest data released by Eurostast – 9 March 2021
- Q4 GDP -4.9% vs -5.0% y/y second estimate
Dollar loses more ground in European trading today
Copper prices have been on a very strong rally in line with other commodities. Futures markets had rallied above $9,000 a ton on the reflationary trade narrative. A global vaccine roll out would bring economies back to normal. However, the recent surge higher in bond yields is causing markets to worry that things are going too quickly.
Copper will come under pressure. On top of the bond yield rise on faster rate rises being anticipated stockpiles in copper are also high. According to Bloomberg the levels of copper sat in China’s bonded warehouses have stayed high since the surge higher from July last year. Stockpiles have also been reported to be picking up in Shanghai, London, and New York since late February. Furthermore, with reports that China are also talking about walking back from easy policy copper looks like it will find sellers on the short term rallies higher.
However, deeper pullbacks should still find buyers as the return to global growth should support prices over the medium to longer term. Citi upgraded their near-term copper point price forecast (0-3 months) to USD 10,500/t (prev USD 9,000/t); and raises their 2021 forecast to USD 10,000/t (USD 9,000/t).
Asian equities rebound on reported China intervention
The rumour is two ballistic missiles intercepted near Yenbu in Saudi Arabia
Analysts at Fitch rating agency say the Chinese government planned fiscal consolidation in 2021 is more modest than the agency previously expected.
- China strikes cautious note on fiscal consolidation
- estimate consolidated fiscal deficit will moderate to 7.5% of GDP this year, from 9% in 2020
- baseline forecasts suggest Chinese government debt-to-gdp ratio will rise to about 57% by end-2021, up by 10pp from end-2019
(The implication of all this is even more stimulus is ahead in China than previously thought)
- persistent aggressive central bank pricing
- continued repricing higher of intermediate and long-end real yields on turbocharged growth expectations
- Expects Fed push back against current market pricing of rate hikes
- says the result will be investor fear subsiding about an earlier exit from accommodative policy
- tactical opportunity to buy the bond market
- Fed Chair Powell press conference follows at 1830 GMT