Oil analysts at Bank of America are forecasting Brent and WTI to average $63/bbl and $60/bbl (respectively) this year (calendar year 2021).
Our supply and demand forecasts suggest a 1.3mn b/d deficit in 2021
- followed by a 170k b/d surplus in 2022
DEMAND forecast from BoA:
global demand will rebound nearly 6mn b/d YoY in 2021 after falling 8.7mn b/d in 2020.
- During 2021-23, we forecast demand will grow by more than 9mn b/d, the fastest pace since the 1970s.
SUPPLY forecasts from the analysts also:
Non-OPEC supply should grow more than 1 mn b/d YoY in 2021 and an additional 2mn b/d in 2022.
- US supply to grow less than 200k b/d in 2021 and more than 1 mn b/d in 2022 thanks in part to robust NGL volumes.
- OPEC supplies are set to rise 800k b/d in 2021 and 2.1 mn b/d in 2022 and OPEC+ adds back supply and as Iran returns.