Paul Tudor Jones on preparing for the trading day.Good advice for investors too,just "write the script" over long-term
Archives of “February 2019” month
rssGeorge Soros' Best Investment Advice
The Best Investment Advice George Soros Ever Gave. Here it is:
“Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited.” ~ George Soros
Think about that statement for a minute. For everyone who is in the so-called bear camp, and thinks the current “recovery” belongs in quotation marks, this is an exceptionally meaningful quote.
Of course, everyone who has been bearish on the markets since 2009 has largely lost money, and been quite aggravated in the process. Had trillions in stimulus and quantitative easing not been injected into the economy (the big banks for the latter), our economy would have simply restructured and our markets would have bottomed at values far lower than they did. Bearish market participants have been investing with the philosophy that this will still happen.
Many bearish market participants have recognized the dynamic that there are long-term structural deficit and various economic issues, and that the economy is simply being goosed by trillions in cash and dangerously low interest rates. In other words, the bears scream that “the economy is unsustainable;” If and when rates rise, servicing trillions in debt is going to require even more debt issuance, leading to ever higher rates and a crowding out of the private sector. At this point, people draw different conclusions as to what happens next.
Others note that the euro is going to break apart, and it too is only being held together by programs like LTRO and other central bank intervention.
Regardless, many have come to the conclusion that our equity markets are fundamentally overvalued and do not discount the structural issues we face. The best argument I’ve heard for overvaluation is that corporate profit margins will contract rapidly when the U.S. government needs to start cutting its budget; we may be approaching that day with the creeping “fiscal cliff” at the end of the year. (more…)
Development and self-improvement -Trading Quotes
Trading is a performance game and only the best will make it to the top and stay there. Professional traders work very hard and are often obsessed with trading, whereas the average amateur trader reduces their trading time to flipping through time-frames to hunt trades or read through forums trying to find a better system. Professionals understand that they have put in the work and that the learning never ends.
Successful traders constantly ask themselves: What am I doing right? What am I doing wrong? How can I do what I am doing better? How can I get more information? – Bill Lipschutz
I really value the fact that I’ve learned to trade as a craft. Like any craft, such as piano playing, perfection may be elusive – I’ll never play a piece perfectly, and I’ll never buy the low and sell the high – butconsistency is achievable if you practice day in and day out. – Linda Raschke
I learned that each mistake was probably a reflection of something that I was doing wrong, so if I could figure out what that was, I could learn how to be more effective. I learned that wrestling with my problems, mistakes, and weaknesses was the training that strengthened me. Also, I learned that it was the pain of this wrestling that made me and those around me appreciate our successes. – Ray Dalio
When you think that it’s too hard, remember that in the long run, doing the things that will make you successful is a lot easier than being unsuccessful. – Ray Dalio
If you don’t work very hard, it is extremely unlikely that you will be a good trader. – Bruce Kovner
The realization that you are responsible for your results is the key to successful investing. Winners know they are responsible for their results; losers think they are not. – Dr. Van K. Tharp
Trading Intuition
I’ve heard from many traders that they often take decisions based on instincts. Actually, all non-quants use intuition in some form or another. If you are not using a program that takes all signals that your system produces, how do you decide between several equally good looking trading setups with similar risk to reward? Do you take them all or do you concentrate on only a few? The odds are that you are doing the latter and your ultimate choice for capital allocation is subconscious.
Even though we are defined by our decisions, we are often completely unaware of what’s happening inside our heads during the decision-making process.
Feelings are often an accurate shortcut, a concise expression of decades’ worth of experience.
The process of thinking requires feeling, for feelings are what let us understand all the information that we can’t directly comprehend. Reason without emotion is impotent. (more…)
25 rules of Trading Discipline
- The market pays you to be disciplined.
- Be disciplined every day, in every trade, and the market will reward you. But don’t claim to be disciplined if you are not 100 percent of the time.
- Always lower your trade size when you’re trading poorly.
- Never turn a winner into a loser.
- Your biggest loser can�t exceed your biggest winner.
- Develop a methodology and stick with it. don�t change methodologies from day to day.
- Be yourself. Don�t try to be someone else.
- You always want to be able to come back and play the next day. Once you reach the daily downside limit, you must turn your PC off and call it a day. You can always come back tomorrow.
- Earn the right to trade bigger. Remember: if you are trading poorly with two lots you must lower your trade size down to a one lot.
- Get out of your losers. (more…)
Brilliant Anti Smoking Advertisement
Are you a Trader or Gambler?
Why do you trade ?
Let me guess…
Because you want to make a crapload of money and be able to buy anything you wish?
While this is a perfectly valid reason, it will most likely lead to excessive greed and ultimately lead to your trading account’s destruction.
You might as well take your money to Vegas instead, and gamble it away.
Once your money is all gone, at least it was entertaining.
Greed is the worst motivation for trading. The market will always punish greed and will always reward moderation.
Never try to make all of your money on one trade.
Never try to make all of your money on one trade.
If you do, you are not trading, you are gambling!
There is a fine line between traders and gamblers. When there is real money on the line, there are always those who take blind chances.
If you want to be a successful, do NOT think like a gambler, do NOT take blind chances and do NOT solely rely on luck.
Luck comes and goes just like the gambler.
It’s the trader who remains.
The Fraud of ‘Humanitarian Wars’ – Excellent Speech by Glenn Greenwald
Trading obstacles
Have you ever been to a situation when you moved the stop because you couldn’t accept the lose, but ended up losing big chunk. Or you were too sure about the direction of the trade, you didn’t even put a stop loss but trade went opposite your way and ended up losing ten times more then what you suppose to lose. What about this scenario, you were sitting on big profit; you didn’t partial because of greed or overconfidence and ended up giving every thing to the market. Never been to this kind of situation, that’s great, but if been through this kind of horrible situation and still having this problem then you are not alone. We human naturally like that, can’t accept loses or in other word we like to win. In the trading word it is impossible to win 100% of the time, trading is game of probability .Very simple concept which part of the probability we don’t understand. Probably we understand probability but when we involve in a trade our ego overleaps the logical part of our brain.
What should we do, we will let our ego to ruin our trading career or we will say good bye to our ego.
1.Be honest to your self
2.Admit you mistake
3.Overconfidence is you enemy
4.Think logically
5.Try to keep record of every trade
6.Never revenge trade
7.Market is always right not you.
Advice To Traders From The Year 1923
Your biggest enemy, when trading, is within yourself. Success will only come when you learn to control your emotions. Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) offers advice that still applies today.
- CautionExcitement (and fear of missing an opportunity) often persuade us to enter the market before it is safe to do so. After a down-trend a number of rallies may fail before one eventually carries through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind us to signs that the trend is reversing.
- PatienceWait for the right market conditions before trading. There are times when it is wise to stay out of the market and observe from the sidelines.
- ConvictionHave the courage of your convictions: Take steps to protect your profits when you see that a trend is weakening, but sit tight and don’t let fear of losing part of your profit cloud your judgment. There is a good chance that the trend will resume its upward climb.
- DetachmentConcentrate on the technical aspects rather than on the money. If your trades are technically correct, the profits will follow.
Stay emotionally detached from the market. Avoid getting caught up in the short-term excitement. Screen-watching is a tell-tale sign: if you continually check prices or stare at charts for hours it is a sign that you are unsure of your strategy and are likely to suffer losses. - FocusFocus on the longer time frames and do not try to catch every short-term fluctuation. The most profitable trades are in catching the large trends. (more…)