Ain't that the truth…
Archives of “February 2019” month
rssUsing Hollywood Movies To Call Market Tops
Previously we reported on Horseman Capital’s uncanny ability to generate market-beating returns (outperforming 98% of peers since 2012) despite having a net -50% short position offset by treasury longs. Now, we take a quick detour into one of the prop investment bets used by Horseman’s CIO, Russel Clark, namely Hollywood’s ability to pull a Dennis Gartman, and make a dramatic appearnace at all the key market inflection points.
From the July Horseman Letter:
I notice with interest, that Hollywood still retains its unmatched ability to call market tops. 2014 film, “Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit” details a plan by Russia to crash the US dollar and destabilise the American financial system. At the time of the film’s release, 34 rubles bought 1 USD, while at time of writing you require 62 rubles to buy 1 USD. If anything, you could argue that sanctions, plus the US deal with Iran have been a plan hatched by the US to crash the ruble and destabilise the Russian financial system!
Another 2014 film was “Interstellar” a film I enjoyed so much that I think I have seen it three or four times. Curiously, the film begins in the future, but is never explicit in dates. A search on the internet has most people suggesting the film being set in 2060s or 2070s. The film implies that in the 2030 or 40s declining natural resources causes technological progress to reverse and humans to seek a new planet to call home. Curiously, since Interstellar’s release date sugar prices have fallen 35%, milk prices by 45%, and oil prices by 35%. (more…)
success and self improvement are lonely roads
Modern public restrooms; Men, Women, Selfies..
U.S., U.K. 'most stretched' by debt, Moody's says
Uncle Sam isn’t in danger of losing his top credit rating, but he’s not in the greatest shape, either.
So says Moody’s Investors Service in its quarterly assessment of triple-A-rated countries.
Paying the interest on their debt remains manageable for these countries, Moody’s says, so their governments aren’t in any immediate danger of a downgrade.
But among the AAA countries, the U.S. and the U.K. are “most stretched” by their debt obligations, Moody’s says.
The debt ratings are important because a downgrade raises a country’s borrowing costs. And virtually every big country faces a difficult challenge in removing bailout and stimulus money quickly enough to avoid inflation and slowly enough to keep the weak recovery going.
“This exposes governments to substantial execution risk in the implementation of their exit strategies, which could yet make their credit more vulnerable,” says Arnaud Mares, senior vice president in Moody’s sovereign risk group and the main author of the report.
LESSONS FROM TRADING IN THE ZONE BY MARK DOUGLAS
1.) When it comes to trading, it turns out that the skills we learn to earn high marks in school, advance our careers and create relationships with other people, turn out to be inappropriate for trading. Traders must learn to think in terms of probabilities and surrender all of the skills acquired to achieve in virtually every other aspect of life.
2.) Within 9 months of moving to Chicago, I had lost nearly everything I owned. My losses were the result of both my trading activities and my exorbitant lifestyle, which demanded that I make a lot of money as a trader.
3.) You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money. Anything can happen. Every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. The trade either works or it doesn’t.
4.) More or better market analysis is not the solution to his trading difficulties or lack of consistent results. It is attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results. A winner’s mindset means learning how to think in probabilities.
5.) The edge means there’s a higher probability of one outcome than another. The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades.
6.) Do you ever feel compelled to make a trade because you are afraid that you might miss out?
7.) People , expressing their beliefs and expectations about the future, make prices move- not models. The fact that a model makes a logical and reasonable projection based on all the relevant variables is not of much value if the traders who are responsible for most of the trading volume aren’t aware of the model or don’t believe in it. In other words, people who trade don’t always act in a rational manner.
8.) Price movement could be so volatile that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to stay in a trade in order to realize the fundamental analysts’ objective. (more…)
The Path to Greatness
There is much wisdom in the following and I wish these were my words, but sadly they are not. This particular speech doesn’t even pertain to trading, but reminds me so much of what Mark Douglas teaches. However, I always seem to find ways to relate just about everything in my life to trading, as I’m sure most who read this blog. Therefore I thought you would find as much value here as do I.
You are where you are…you have a goal
As you move towards that goal, things will happen
Some of those things will eventually, trigger in you an emotion that is counterproductive to your goal
It will cause you to act in a way, that will take you away from where you were heading, and towards something more familiar in your life that has plagued you your whole life
We all have these areas of vulnerabilityThose who master this vulnerability are the people who master their craft. The people who master that moment in time, where that reaction occurs, are the people who do extraordinary things with their life. Who overcome things that others can’t even imagine confronting. It’s because at that moment, they manage themselves through that triggered state in an effective way, rather than defaulting to their old system they developed at a very young age, that does nothing but protect them, but not advance them. If you can master those moments, your life will be catapulted into extraordinary experiences beyond anything you can imagine.
Admit Mistakes
“To be a successful trader, you have to be able to admit mistakes. People who are very bright don’t make very many mistakes. In a sense, they generally are correct. In trading, however, the person who can easily admit to being wrong is the one who walks away a winner. Besides trading, there is probably no other profession where you have to admit you’re wrong. In trading, you can’t hide your failures. Your equity provides a daily reflection of your performance. The trader who tries to blame his losses on external events will never learn from his mistakes. For a trader, rationalization is a guaranteed road to ultimate failure.”
Peter L Bernstein on Risk -VIDEO
7 actions
7 actions I do :
1) Enter a trade that doesn’t take off – cut it. I don’t care if it takes off after that.
2) Get a gut feeling that I’m on the wrong side of the market – cut it and reverse.
3) Stopped out twice on the same pair – stay flat and don’t trade until tomorrow.
4) In a trade that’s running well – only look at it towards end of current session and make a decision to stay into the end of the next one or not. (more…)