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Wisdom is knowing the limits of your knowledge

What does it mean to be wise? What is Wisdom?

One of the more interesting aspects to wisdom is self-awareness. “Thinking about wisdom,” writes Stephen Hall in his book Wisdom: From Philosophy to Neuroscience, “almost inevitably inspires you to think about yourself and your relationship with the larger world.” The book is an investigation into fuzzy questions such as how can it help us shed light on the process by which we deal with big decisions and dilemmas.

He writes:

Wisdom requires an experience-based knowledge of the world (including, especially, the world of human nature). It requires mental focus, reflecting the ability to analyze and discern the most important aspects of acquired knowledge, knowing what to use and what to discard, almost on a case by case basis (put another way, it requires knowing when to follow rules, but also when the usual rules no longer apply). It requires mediating, refereeing, between the frequently conflicting inputs of emotion and reason, of narrow self-interest and broader social interest, of instant rewards or future gains. Moreover, it expresses itself through an insistently social vocabulary of interactive behavior: a fundamental sense of justice (which is sometimes described as an innate form of morality, of knowing right from wrong), a commitment to welfare of social (and, for that matter, genetic) units that extend beyond the self, and the ability to defer immediate self-gratification in order to achieve the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people. (more…)

Dubai gets $10 billion injection

burj-al-arab-dubai-hotel-sail-arab-emirates

DUBAI — Dubai said Monday that it has received $10 billion in financing from Abu Dhabi, which will pay part of the debt held by conglomerate Dubai World and its property unit Nakheel.

Out of this, $4.1 billion will be used to repay Nakheel’s Islamic bond, or sukuk, that matures Monday. The remainder of the funds will be used to finance Dubai World’s needs up until the end of April 2010.

“We are here today to reassure investors, financial and trade creditors, employees, and our citizens that our government will act at all times in accordance with market principles and internationally accepted business practices,” Sheikh Ahmed bin Saaed al-Maktoum said in a statement.

Dubai rocked world markets in late November when it requested a freeze on debt payments by Dubai World in order to restructure the conglomerate. Nakheel’s bond had been seen by many as a litmus test for Dubai’s ability to repay more than $80 billion of government and corporate debt.

“I think Abu Dhabi saw the adverse market reaction to Nakheel debt restructuring news play out over several days and perhaps decided they had seen enough,” said Saud Masud, senior real estate analyst at UBS AG.

Expectations that Nakheel could reach a positive outcome helped boost shares in Dubai on Sunday. The Dubai Financial Market’s main index closed up 3.3% at 1695.35, extending Thursday’s 7% rally. However, the benchmark is still down about 19% since Dubai World requested the debt freeze.

“This is very positive news, and will be welcomed relief to bondholders in particular. We are expecting a strong positive reaction to U.A.E. and regional markets,” said Ali Khan, managing director at Arqaam Capital. “Details yet to emerge, however headline is very positive.”

In its statement, Dubai said it will focus on addressing the concerns of Dubai World’s creditors and will start discussions with creditors and contractors shortly.

Jim Simons: The Mathematician Who Cracked Wall Street -VIDEO

Jim Simons was a mathematician and cryptographer who realized: the complex math he used to break codes could help explain patterns in the world of finance. Billions later, he’s working to support the next generation of math teachers and scholars. TED’s Chris Anderson sits down with Simons to talk about his extraordinary life in numbers.

Jim Simons: A rare interview with the mathematician who cracked Wall Street

Trading Wisdom

Markets are highly random and are very, very close to being efficient.

If you are a new trader, trading is probably harder than you think it can be. If you’ve been trading a while, you know this. Financial markets are one of the most competitive environments in the modern world. New information is quickly processed and incorporated into prices. This means that you cannot outsmart the market consistently. You cannot invest based on what you think makes sense or should happen because you are up against investors with superior access to information, knowledge, experience, capital and other resources. Most of the time, markets move in a more or less random fashion; you can’t make money if market movements are random. (“Efficient”, in this context, is an academic term that basically means that all available information is reflected in prices.)

It is impossible to make money trading without an edge.

There are many ways to create an edge in the markets, but one this is true—it is very, very hard to do so. Most things that people say work in the market do not actually work. Treat claims of success and performance with healthy skepticism. I can tell you, based on my experience of nearly twenty years as a trader, most people who say they are making substantial profits are not. This is a very hard business.

Every edge we have is driven by an imbalance of buying and selling pressure.

The world divides into two large groups of traders and investors: fundamental traders who base decisions off of financial analysis, understanding of the industry and a company’s competitive position, growth rates, assessment of management, etc. Technical traders base decisions off of patterns in prices, volume or related data. From a technical perspective, every edge we have is generated by a disagreement between buyers and sellers. When they are in balance (equilibrium), market movements are random.

Examine your assumptions

assumptions

Everyone knows we need a good plan to succeed, but what the heck does a good plan entail? In the course of studying how to trade, we begin building assumptions that govern our outlook of what the
market is, and how the market should operate.These assumptions are stitched together by general concepts of technical analysis and stuffed in a little box like a holiday turkey left to bake, the finished product we label a “plan”.

Logically following, if your underlying assumptions are incorrect, your plan will fail no matter how well your analysis. The irony, of course, is that the more disciplined you are in following a bad plan the more money you will lose.

Game Theory:
Majority of traders are taught what trading should entail, but in the market the majority is wrong. It is often said that the market is set up to frustrate the most traders. (more…)

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