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TRADING IS WAR. PREPARE YOUR WEAPONS

  
  Education
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SUN TZU gives a very clear and succinct reason for his military treatise in the first three sentences when he says,

“The art of war is of vital importance to the state.  It is a matter of life and death, a road to either safety or ruin.  Hence it is the subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected.”

Here is my interpretation for traders: 

“The art of trading is of vital importance to the success of the trader.  It is a matter of financial life and death, a road to either consistent profits or significant loss of income.  Hence it requires much thoughtful study that cannot be neglected.”

 SUN TZU and THE ART OF WAR                       THE TRADER and THE ART OF TRADING

Important to the StateImportant to the trader
A matter of life and deathA matter of financial life or death
Road to safety/ruinA road to consistent profits/significant losses
Subject of inquiry not to be neglectedSubject of thoughtful study not to be neglected

As we continue to explore SUN TZU’s ART OF WAR, keep the above table in mind for everything that follows in his treatise will be shaped by SUN TZU’s foundational premise, which is this: since war is a given fact whoever engages in it best be prepared because the warrior’s very survival is at stake.

Trading is war.  If you have been trading long enough I do not have to convince you that it is so.  Thoughtful study of the market and how we relate to it is the key to our success and our very survival.

THE SUCCESSFUL TRADER

  
  Education
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douglasquote

There is a reason why so few traders succeed.  It is not for lack of study or effort or passion.  It is not for lack of education or a Bloomberg platform subscription.  It is not because only a select few have access to technical “secrets” (a.k.a. indicators).  No.  So few succeed at trading for the same reason that so few succeed at living an abundant life.

The unsuccessful refuse to think differently when faced with difficulties believing that luck has passed them by.  They do not succeed because the want of instant gratification and its fleeting rewards has replaced the need for sustainable, hard fought, earned rewards indicative of a mindset prepared to tackle failure as nothing but a mathematical equation: here is the problem now let’s find the solution.

The mediocre search for easy answers to difficult problems believing that the right answers to their questions are found somewhere “out there”.   The successful make difficult decisions where there are no easy answers, questioning whether their perception of what is out there is a distorted reflection of what is inside of them.

The best traders, according to Mark Douglas, think differently than others because they know that what is most important is “how they think about what they do and how they’re thinking when they do it.”

SUN TZU’S ART OF WAR AND THE ART OF TRADING

  
Analysis, Education
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This post will begin a new category specifically focused on the military principles of SUN TZU and their relevance for contemporary traders.  My goal is for you to find my interpretation of this 2500 year old military treatise as beneficial to your trading success as I have.

If you trade and study the market for a living as I do, or have a desire to do so,  I suggest you read SUN TZU’S ART OF WAR.  You can read the complete text here:

SUN TZU ON THE ART OF WAR: THE OLDEST MILITARY TREATISE IN THE WORLD

WHY SUN TZU?

Anyone who has attempted to trade the markets, and by markets I mean any number of financial instruments from oil futures, forex, equities, options, etc., has found out in short order how difficult trading can be. In fact, I would venture to say that trading is one of the most difficult endeavors any of us could ever attempt to master. It is estimated that only about ten percent of those who attempt to trade for a living ever succeed. The ten percent who do eventually succeed will most likely tell us that they lost a few fortunes along the way. It is hard emotionally, mentally, and physically. Only the strongest will survive on this battlefield and is the very reason we need the principles of Sun Tzu to help us along the way. 

Now you know the reason for my site’s motto:

TRADING IS WAR. PREPARE YOUR WEAPONS. (more…)

The Man Who Thinks He Can- Written some 100 years ago , which nicely captures the value of 'Self Belief'

  
  Education
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The Man Who Thinks He Can.
By Walter D.Wintle.
If you think you are beaten, you are
If you think you dare not, you don’t,
If you like to win, but you think you can’t
It is almost certain you won’t.
If you think you’ll lose, you’re lost
For out of the world we find,
Success begins with a fellow’s will
It’s all in the state of mind.
If you think you are outclassed, you are
You’ve got to think high to rise,
You’ve got to be sure of yourself before
You can ever win a prize.
Life’s battles don’t always go
To the stronger or faster man,
But soon or late the man who wins
Is the man WHO THINKS HE CAN!
Traders Must Read ……………….EveryDay

Trend Following: “Speculation as a fine art…”

  
  Education
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Dickson Watts a trend following father:

Before entering on our inquiry, before considering the rules of our art, we will examine the subject in the abstract. Is speculation right? It may be questioned, tried by the highest standards, whether any trade where an exact equivalent is not given can be right. But as society is now organized speculation seems a necessity.

Is there any difference between speculation and gambling? The terms are often used interchangeably, but speculation presupposes intellectual effort; gambling, blind chance. Accurately to define the two is difficult; all definitions are difficult. Wit and humor, for instance, can be defined; but notwithstanding the most subtle distinction, wit and humor blend, run into each other. This is true of speculation and gambling. The former has some of the elements of chance; the latter some of the elements of reason. We define as best we can. Speculation is a venture based upon calculation. Gambling is a venture without calculation. The law makes this distinction; it sustains speculation and condemns gambling.

All business is more or less speculation. The term speculation, however, is commonly restricted to business of exceptional uncertainty. The uninitiated believe that chance is so large a part of speculation that it is subject to no rules, is governed by no laws.

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Philosophical speculation

  
  Education
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I used to do a lot of philosophical speculation as a young man. I wasted a large part of my youth regurgitating certain ideas. Then I discovered that one can learn a great deal more through action than through contemplation. So I became an active thinker where my thinking played an important role in deciding what actions to take and my actions play an important role in improving my thinking. This two-way interaction between thinking and action became the hallmark of my philosophy and the hallmark of my life. – George Soros

speculation

5 Qualities essential to the equipment of the speculator

  
  Education
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  1. Self-Reliance. A man must think for himself, must follow his own convictions. George MacDonald says: “A man cannot have another man’s ideas any more than he can another man’s soul or another man’s body.” Self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.
  2. Judgment. That equipoise, that nice adjustment of the faculties one to the other, which is called good judgment, is an essential to the speculator.
  3. Courage. That is, confidence to act on the decisions of the mind. In speculation there is value in Mirabeau’s dictum: “Be bold, still be bold; always be bold.”
  4. Prudence. The power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. There should be a balance of these two, Prudence and Courage; Prudence in contemplation, Courage in execution. Lord Bacon says: “In meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution one, unless very formidable.” Connected with these qualities, properly an outgrowth of them, is a third, viz: promptness. The mind convinced, the act should follow. In the words of Macbeth; “Henceforth the very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand.” Think, act, promptly.
  5. Pliability the ability to change an opinion, the power of revision. “He who observes,” says Emerson, “and observes again, is always formidable.”

A Study in the Psychology of Gambling- Written in Year 1873

  
  Education
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In a 1873 letter to The Spectator entitled “A Study in the Psychology of Gambling” Saxon-les-Bains describes his gambling experience in Monte Carlo.

And what was my experience?  This chiefly, that I was distinctly conscious of partially attributing to some defect of stupidity in my own mind, every venture on an issue that proved a failure; that I groped about within me something in me like an anticipation or warning (which of course was not to be found) of what the next event was to be, and generally hit upon some vague impulse in my own mind which determined me: that when I succeeded I raked up my gains, with a half impression that I had been a clever fellow, and had made a judicious stake, just as if I had really moved skillfully as in chess; and that when I failed, I thought to myself, ‘Ah, I knew all the time I was going wrong in selecting that number, and yet I was fool enough to stick to it,’ which was, of course, a pure illusion, for all that I did know the chance was even, or much more than even, against me.  But this illusion followed me throughout.  I had a sense of deserving success when I succeeded, or of having failed through my own willfulness, or wrong-headed caprice, when I failed.  When, as not infrequently happened, I put a coin on the corner between four numbers, receiving eight times my stake, if any of the four numbers turned up, I was conscious of an honest glow of self-applause…

Evidently, in spite of the clearest understanding of the chances of the game, the moral fallacy which attributes luck or ill luck to something of capacity and deficiency in the individual player, must be profoundly ingrained in us.   I am convinced that the shadow of merit and demerit is thrown by the mind over multitudes of actions which have no possibility of wisdom or folly in them, granted, of course, the folly in gambling at all, as in the selection of the particular chance on which you win or lose.  When you win at one time and lose at another, the mind is almost unable to realize that there was no reason accessible to yourself why you won and why you lost.  And so you invent what you know perfectly well to be a fiction, the conception of some sort of inward divining rod which guided you right, when you used it properly, and failed only because you did not attend ‘adequately to its indications.’

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