Having confidence in a trade is easy. You do not know what is going to happen, blinded by opportunity. Every trade is new. Easy to convince yourself that this time it will be a winner. This takes no effort other than convincing yourself. This is what is described in  first circle. You can look at a chart and imagine you can do it. Hindsight. As a new trader I was very confident, but I was confident in myself.

Having confidence in trading is much harder. It requires you to have confidence in every trade. You have to look at a series of trades and results not just one. True confidence comes from a trading plan and process. This is what  describes in his second circle. Hindsight cannot be used. This is about execution. Execution does not lie and you cannot hide from it. As I matured I had confidence in myself as a trader after doing the work.