Archives of “January 11, 2019” day

rss

ALERT : Japan to downgrade fiscal 2016 growth forecast

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #

The Japanese government will cut its fiscal 2016 estimate for real economic growth from 1.7% to 0.9%, owing to uncertainty over the global economy and expectations of lower consumption after a tax hike set for the following year was delayed.

The nominal growth forecast will be lowered from 3.1% to 2.2%. The Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy will release the adjusted outlook Wednesday for approval by the cabinet. The new figures will not take into account a stimulus package to be put together as soon as early August.

 The downgrade owes partly to the postponement of a consumption tax hike that had been slated for April 2017. The January estimate had factored in a surge in demand ahead of the increase. With the hike having been pushed back, the government will cut its projection for real consumer spending growth from 2% to around 1%.

Another issue is uncertainty surrounding the global economy, stemming from such factors as the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union. The yen’s unexpected strength and slowdowns in China and other emerging markets are expected to depress exports and capital spending.

The Japanese government plans to set its real and nominal growth estimates for fiscal 2017 at 1.2% and 2.2%, respectively. It sees growth picking up slightly as the world economy gradually improves.

Improve your Trading Skill

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Would you believe that a 14th century priest, and his concepts, can help make you a better trader?  Well, English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham really can make you a better trader.

Ockham developed the concept commonly referred to as Occam’s Razor.  Simply put, this principle favors the simple over the complex, when there is a choice to be made, or a path to be followed.

How can this apply to trading? A few different ways.

First, if you are a system trader, perhaps your approach has too many rules, too many parameters, or too much optimizing.  While every parameter you add might make your system better historically, the more parameters you have, the less prone the system is to work going forward.  Simpler concepts and simple rules tend to be based on fundamental market principles – ones that aren’t as likely to change.

Second, if you are a discretionary trader, you might trade off of news reports from CNBC, Bloomberg and multiple other sources.  Multiple news sources might give you more data, but does it really give you more knowledge?  You might find that with multiple, conflicting pieces of information, you actually can’t trade at all – rather, you are a victim of “analysis paralysis.”

Third, maybe your trading office looks like the control room for the Space Shuttle. If you try to trade off all of the information shown on all the screens, you might just find yourself overwhelmed.  It is better to stick to a few monitors of information, and know that information very well.  The best traders don’t need a dozen monitors to trade well – usually 1 or 2 monitors is plenty.

Many new traders tend to think that that more complicated they make trading, the easier it will be to “solve” the markets.  Instead, they should be listening to William of Ockham, and making things simpler.  Simple, done correctly, can lead to more profits, and stand the test of time better than complicated approaches.

If you want to be rich, first stop being so frightened

  
  Education
#  #
  • If you are unwilling to fail, sometimes publicly, and even catastrophically, you stand little chance of ever getting rich.
  • If you care what the neighbours think, you will never get rich.
  • If you cannot bear the thought of causing worry to your family, spouse or lover while you plough a lonely, dangerous road rather than taking the safe option of a regular job, you will never get rich.
  • If you have artistic inclinations and fear that the search for wealth will coarsen such talents, you will never get rich. (Because you fear, in this instance, is well justified.)
  • If you are not prepared to work longer hours than almost everyone you know, despite the jibes of colleagues and friends, you are unlikely to get rich.
  • If you cannot convince yourself that you are “good enough” to be rich, you will never get rich.
  • If you cannot treat your quest to get rich as a game, you will never be rich.
  • If you cannot face up to your fear of failure, you will never be rich

60 Minutes on Scams: Pigeon Fever

  
Analysis, Education, Life, Video
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

It’s been just over a year since Bernard Madoff’s multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme fell apart. But, as Morley Safer reports, despite all the news about the scandal, similar scams are still thriving



Watch CBS News Videos Online


How hard is it to time the Market?

  
  Education
#  #  #  #

As a simplified illustration of how hard it is to time the market, assume that you are 70% accurate calling market turns. If you are in the market, two calls are required: a sell and a subsequent buy. The probability of being correct (buying back in at a lower price than your selling price) is 70% times 70%, or 49%. That shows you have to be very good (and most people are not much better than a coin toss) to be successful at market timing.

Go to top