In Markets, Here Is No Why

Markets are and will always be inefficient because they are driven by narrative-derived expectations.  Certitude behind the reason why a market or instrument’s price prints where it does at any time isn’t possible, so what is more or less probable is deemed sufficient.  Reliable probabilistic assignment of causes has difficult methodological problems and is usually much too impractical to provide a sound procedural basis for active market decisions.  Crude narrative formation or adoption from mass outlets is typically substituted; and disappointed expectations often the result.  One path of remedy is creation of tractable yet rigorous models scoring pertinent fundamental, technical, sentimental, quantitative and news-based variables; while another is renunciation of narrative-based analyses and explanations: in effect, a renunciation of the analytical pursuit of why.

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