“The word ‘trading’ is not the way I think of things. I may be a trader in the sense that my frequency of transactions is relatively high, but the word ‘investing’ would apply just as much, if not more. In my mind, trading implies an anticipation of a sale at the time of purchase. Good trading is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake. The balance between confidence and humility is best learned through extensive experience and mistakes. There should always be respect for the person on the other side of the trade. Always ask yourself: Why does he want to sell? What does he know that I don’t? All great traders are seekers of truth. The markets are always changing, and the successful trader needs to adapt to these changes.”
Archives of “truth” tag
rssEffectiveness Is the Measure of Truth
In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.
Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss. (more…)
Risk Size Is Key
YOUR WINNERS CAN RUN….IF YOU LET THEM
The proponents of risk/reward ratios say that in order to be successful the trade must out produce the amount of money you have at risk by at least double or triple your risk amount but what they fail to take into consideration is that the reward side of any trade is unknown.
WHAT YOU CONTROL
You see the only part of the trading equation that you have any control over is the risk side of the trade. The reward side of any trade is a complete mystery. Oh sure, we all have our best guesses as to where the market might go next, but in the end it’s really just a crap shoot. Sometimes we’re right and sometimes we’re wrong and if we’re honest with ourselves we will admit that we really don’t know where the market is going next.
If we don’t really know where the market is going, namely the reward side of the trade, why would we even include it in our trade scenario never mind making it the deciding factor of whether to take a trade or not? Obvious, right? Yet in spite of this I continue to encounter traders who insist on only taking high risk/reward trades thinking that they are being smart investors by doing so. (more…)
Traders Daily Lessons
Have the courage to say no.
Have the courage to face the truth.
Have the courage to do the right thing because it is right.
– W. Clement Stone
Have the courage to say no.An inner dialogue typically reinforces the way you think. So the goal is to consciously expose yourself to thoughts that ultimately will positively impact your trading. Through the use of repetition you can considerably strengthen a positive attitude and sound trading behavior. The beauty of it is the simplicity of the method. It’s entirely up to you which trading mantras you want to adhere to. Here are a few that I strongly believe in and that characterize my thinking as a trader:
- Kill your greed
- Isolate yourself from the opinions of others
- Never chase stocks
- Always strive for emotional detachment
- Focus on proper execution
- There is never a shortage of opportunities
- Never make excuses
- Stay in control
- Don’t compare yourself to others
- Always use stop losses
- Standing aside is a position
- Money comes in bunches
- Never add to a losing position
- Stay calm and focused
- Don’t believe the hype
- Cultivate independent thinking
- Be ready for worst case scenarios
- Nosce te ipsum – Know thyself
Mind over the Market Video Interview with Mark Douglas
What is the most important part of your trading? The chart? Managing the risk? Finding the Holy Grail of trading that can’t lose? (I have bad news for you about the Holy Grail).
I am convinced how a trader emotionally reacts to the markets while trading will determine their success more than anything else.
Mark Douglas is a trader and author of Trading in the Zone and The Disciplined Trader two great trading books for traders at all levels that deal primarily with how to develop the correct mindset to be a successful trader.
My favorite Mark Douglas quotes.
Trader Psychology: (more…)
AFFIRMING BETTER TRADING
“Any thought put into your mind and nourished regularly, will produce results in your life.” John Kehoe
An affirmation is a statement made in the present about the future as if it had already occurred in the past. Let me say it more simply. An affirmation is a simple statement about what you want to become true in your life. You state it in the present tense as if it were already true. You repeat your hopes and dreams. You declare the opposite of your fears. For example, the fear that you could lose all your money becomes: “I grow my capital through consistently applying my winning methods.”
Be careful to word the affirmation in the present tense. Statements made in the future stay in the future. “Next month I’ll turn my trading around.” stays out there in the future. Now is when you need to turn the trading around.
Affirmations can be repeated to yourself silently or aloud. You can incant them with feeling or whisper them to yourself. You can record them and play them, or write them and read them. A good time to assert them is just as you’re falling asleep or waking up, or any other time of the day. You can say them while you drive or wait in a bank line or as you watch the market or manage a trade. (more…)
Zen Story
There is a Zen story about a poor man walking through the woods reflecting upon his many troubles.
He stopped to rest against a tree, a magical tree that would instantly grant the wishes of anyone who came in contact with it. He realized he was thirsty and wished for a drink. Instantly a cup of cool water was in his hand. Shocked, he looked at the water, he decided it was safe and drank it.
He then realized he was hungry and wished he had something to eat. A meal appeared before him. “My wishes are being granted,” he thought in disbelief.
“Well, then I wish for a beautiful home of my own,” he said out loud. The home appeared in the meadow before him. A huge smile crossed his face as he wished for servants to take care of the house. (more…)
Evidence Based Trading
The late Ayn Rand emphasized that philosophy was the most practical of disciplines: it governs the ideas that lie behind all we do and think. The philosophical premises we assume affect how we approach trading.
A beautiful example of this is David Aronson’s new book, “Evidence-Based Technical Analysis”. It’s a well-written, thought-provoking text, with many practical examples of how to conduct data analysis in an objective way.
Starting with the premise that knowledge consists of statements that are found to be true, Aronson, writing in the positivist tradition of philosophy, excludes subjectivity as knowledge. He explains:
“The most important consequence of TA adopting the scientific method would be the elimination of subjective approaches. Because they are not testable, subjective methods are shielded from empirical challenge. This makes them worse than wrong. They are meaningless propositions devoid of information. Their elimination would make TA an entirely objective practice.” p. 148
This is bound to rub many traders the wrong way, but it’s an important challenge. What is knowledge? How do we know what we know in the markets? How can we demonstrate that knowledge is such, and not illusion? (more…)
Mark Douglas’s Five Fundamental Truths
1. Anything can happen. Translated – you have no control over the market.
2. You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next in order to make money. You don’t need to be psychic, or try to predict the market. This is not to say that you cannot predict what the market will do next and be correct, only that you don’t have to, and that by trying to predict you shackle yourself to ‘the need to be right’ and the associated ball and chain.
3. Wins and losses are random – You will never know when a trade will be a winner in advance, only that the conditions that define your edge are present.
4. Your edge is nothing more than a higher probability of one thing happening over another. Your edge is no guarantee of a winning trade, just of winning over time.
5. Every moment in the market is unique. Just because a similar trade won last time does not mean it will this time, and by treating each trade as totally unique you can see the truth of the trade without relating it to ‘what happened last time’.
These beauty in these theories is that they take the emphasis off any one trade, and turn your trading into a big picture endeavour.
Keys for Successful Traders
The biggest obstacle to successful trading is failing to recognize that losses are part of the game, and, further, that they must be accommodated. The perfect trading system that allows for only gains does not exist. Expecting, or even hoping for, perfection is a guarantee of failure. Trading is akin to batting in baseball. A player hitting .300 is good. A player hitting .400 is great. But even the great player fails to hit 60% of the time! Remember, you don’t have to be perfect to win in the markets. Practically speaking, this is why you also need an objective money management system.
It takes experience to succeed. Now, some people advocate “paper trading” as a learning tool. Paper trading is useful for testing methodologies, but it has no real value in learning about trading. In fact, it can be detrimental, because it imbues the novice with a false sense of security. “Knowing” that he has successfully paper-traded during the past six months, he believes that the next six months trading with real money will be no different. In fact, nothing could be farther from the truth. Why? Because the markets are not merely an intellectual exercise, they are an emotional one as well. Think about it, just because you are mechanically inclined and like to drive fast doesn’t mean you have the necessary skills to win the Daytona 500.