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The Wit and Wisdom of Mark Douglas

  
  Education
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TRADINGINZONE

“I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realise you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!”

“If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique.”

“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.” (more…)

7 Points to Bulid Trading Confidence

  
  Education
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1. Frequently visualize a successful trading process. What goes into good trading for you? Make sure you see the preparation required, the focus you have during the trading day, and the continous learning from both winning and losing trades to keep getting more effective.

2. Increase your level of physical fitness, as this will enhance both your trading alertness and give a boost to your self-image simultaneously. Both of these elements make you a more confidence trader.

3. Make a list of your strengths. Review this list regularly to remind yourself of how successful you really are.

4. Eliminate negative thoughts and memories. When they occur, replace them with positive self-statements (for example, “I create my own luck” or “I have a good written plan of how I will execute my trades”).

5. Have a general strategy going into each trading day. When you prepare the day before, you position yourself to be proactive and gain confidence as you implement your plan. How aware are you of what you’re experiencing in your mind, body and soul at any moment?  You need to set up a monitoring system at the end of each trading day, to summarize what you executed according to your rules and what you did not.  Look for patterns in your behavior, that you can copy if they work for you, or minimize if they are costing you.

6. Create positive body language regardless of the gain or loss on that trading day. The way you act will often influence the way you feel for future trades. The more confident you feel, the more confidence you will show in your trading.

7. Improve on areas of weakness during preparation time and you’ll create more confidence and belief during the trading day. 

Focus on one of these seven tips at a time, until you can build that area as a habit in your routine.  This will service to greatly improve your trading confidence over time.

5 Signs You’ve Matured as a Trader

  
  Education
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1) Are Self Reliant: When you stop asking other people: “What do you think of the market?” While I respect the opinions of my colleagues, I DO NOT rely on them. I prefer to do my own homework, research and analysis. I LET THE MARKET tell me if I’m right or wrong.

The ultimate goal for traders is to make confident decisions on your own and trade with complete independence. You should not have to rely on the opinions of others because you should have conviction in your OWN ideas.

2) Stop Celebrating Winners: When you stop feeling the need to pound your chest every time you make 30 cents on a stock. (It is the flip side  of not getting depressed over every loss). Recognize what you did correctly and move on to the next trade.

Same thing goes for the stock market. Don’t act like you’ve never had success trading before.

3) Let the Trades Come to You:  When you stop feeling the need to trade every day and you get over the “fear of missing out.” This is the downfall of most traders.

It took me a while to shift my focus from worrying about “missing out” to playing great defense. Once I did this, I noticed an increase in my confidence level as a trader. Keep in mind, there will ALWAYS be opportunities and it’s okay if you miss a few. (more…)

FEAR

  
  Education
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Fear is not always a bad thing, though. In fact, for traders, feeling fear is not a problem, as long as they don’t panic and allow it to drive them out of or in to trades.

Among the fears traders face:

  • Not making enough money in these huge market moves
  • Missing out on big trades
  • Getting caught on the wrong side

At times like this, top traders see opportunity when others crawl into a hole because they are frozen by their fears.

Traders who keep their cool make money from the fear (i.e. shorting oil). Others keep their head and cut positions so they don’t get blown up (Greece and the ripple effect). Still others are waiting patiently for the moment to strike, like a sniper.

So how can all traders think like the top traders when it comes to fear?

  • Lay out the data and look at it from an objective point of view.
  • Pay attention to where the disconnects are because others are trading based on fear.
  • Keep positions smaller with wider stops; be ready to get bigger quickly the moment the uncertainty starts clears up, which it always does.

Vigilance

  
  Education
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Vigilance is the non-stop guarding and protecting of important things. In trading there is nothing more important than money. The Professional Trader takes his money very seriously and has given it a more serious term: “Capital”. Capital is everything to the winning trader. It is not just the end goal, it is the means and the source before, during and after the trades. The Professional Trader guards his capital very closely because it will allow him to trade today, tomorrow, next week, next month and next year and beyond. If capital is not protected at all times, then the entire effort for the year can be gone and future opportunities are severely limited. Vigilance in trading means holding the protection of your money, your capital as your constant highest priority. Properly protecting your capital includes starting with enough to trade wisely and be able to stay in the game when the inevitable downturns and losing streaks occur. (more…)

10 Market Insights from Mark Douglas

  
  Education
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1. The four trading fears

95% of the trading errors you are likely to make will stem from your attitudes about being wrong, losing money, missing out, and leaving money on the table – the four trading fears

2. The proverbial empathy gap

You may already have some awareness of much of what you need to know to be a consistently successful trader. But being aware of something doesn’t automatically make it a functional part of who you are. Awareness is not necessarily a belief. You can’t assume that learning about something new and agreeing with it is the same as believing it at a level where you can act on it.

3. The market doesn’t generate happy or painful information

From the markets perspective, it’s all simply information. It may seem as if the market is causing you to feel the way you do at any given moment, but that’s not the case. It’s your own mental framework that determines how you perceive the information, how you feel, and, as a result, whether or not you are in the most conducive state of mind to spontaneously enter the flow and take advantage of whatever the market is offering.

4. The flaws of fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis creates what I call a “reality gap” between “what should be” and “what is.” The reality gap makes it extremely difficult to make anything but very long-term predictions that can be difficult to exploit, even if they are correct.

5. A good trader is a confident trader (more…)

Greed and Fear

  
  Education
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Greed and Fear are two of the strongest emotions that can have major influences on our trading behaviours and hence profitability.

We have all experienced these, from the inability to put a trade on to the gut ache seeing money on the table evaporate.

Recently I have been thinking of these two emotions in a different light. What I want to propose is that these two emotions have very different “time-frames” of operation, with respect to trading. Now I have
no detailed research or data to back this up, but I felt I’d put this out there and see what other traders thought…

Fear = Short Term = Most likely to be experienced before or soon after a trade is placed.

Greed = Longer Term = Emotion that plays a major role further into the trade timeline.

My rationale here is that it is FEAR that (some) people feel before putting on a trade, worrying if they should place the trade or not, once in a trade it is FEAR that makes them start hoping that it wont go
against them.

With GREED, I think this starts to come in later. For instance, if the position has become profitable, then starts to loose and become negative, it is GREED for the money that was on the table that keeps you
in the trade, not fear of loss. As it usually takes time for the trade to become profitable, the emotion of GREED by association is the emotion that takes longer to materialise. Indeed, I would argue that when
you think back to the trades ‘that could have been’, you are more likely to remember the trades that ‘could have’ made you a good return, rather than the quick losses you took?

Become a Great Trader Without Trading

  
  Education
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200347944-001Sometimes history can assist us in becoming greater at what we want to do.

However, one of the biggest struggles we all face is that fact that we generally know what we need to do, but because we do not like the task, we do not do it.

As a trader, we all want to become better. Instead of using only our time in front of the charts to enhance our skills, use the time that we cannot even trade to become better.

Every Saturday-Sunday, the markets are closed. This is the perfect time to have you own personal trading school. Sit down with your trading journal of all of the trades you made last week along with your charts or the screen shots of your executed trades and analyze what you actually did.

You will soon discover that the information surrounding these trades will provide a wealth of information that will assist you in seeing your areas of strength and areas that you need to strengthen.

If we never look at where we have just been, then we will never be sure that the path we are continuing on will get us to our desired destination.

Richard Rhodes' Trading Rules

  
  Education
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If I’ve learned anything in my decades of trading, I’ve learned that the simple methods work best. Those who need to rely upon complex stochastics, linear weighted moving averages, smoothing techniques, Fibonacci numbers etc., usually find that they have so many things rolling around in their heads that they cannot make a rational decision. One technique says buy; another says sell. Another says sit tight while another says add to the trade. It sounds like a cliche, but simple methods work best.

  1. The first and most important rule is – in bull markets, one is supposed to be long. This may sound obvious, but how many of us have sold the first rally in every bull market, saying that the market has moved too far, too fast. I have before, and I suspect I’ll do it again at some point in the future. Thus, we’ve not enjoyed the profits that should have accrued to us for our initial bullish outlook, but have actually lost money while being short. In a bull market, one can only be long or on the sidelines. Remember, not having a position is a position.
  2. Buy that which is showing strength – sell that which is showing weakness. The public continues to buy when prices have fallen. The professional buys because prices have rallied. This difference may not sound logical, but buying strength works. The rule of survival is not to “buy low, sell high”, but to “buy higher and sell higher”. Furthermore, when comparing various stocks within a group, buy only the strongest and sell the weakest.
  3. When putting on a trade, enter it as if it has the potential to be the biggest trade of the year. Don’t enter a trade until it has been well thought out, a campaign has been devised for adding to the trade, and contingency plans set for exiting the trade.
  4. On minor corrections against the major trend, add to trades. In bull markets, add to the trade on minor corrections back into support levels. In bear markets, add on corrections into resistance. Use the 33-50% corrections level of the previous movement or the proper moving average as a first point in which to add.
  5. Be patient. If a trade is missed, wait for a correction to occur before putting the trade on. (more…)

Bend your will to focus on the war

  
  Education
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bendyourwill

  • 1) Allow yourself to enjoy the victories. Traders have a tendency to get very upset about busted trades and in so doing burn memories strongly in their minds. The same traders get little satisfaction from the good trades, thus not burning as strong a memory. If you have done your homework, followed your rules, entered and exited the trade as planned, then give yourself credit and enjoy it. You deserve it.  
  • 2) Take control of your beliefs. Successful traders are realistic about trading when accepting the fact that trading is a game of probabilities. Successful traders believe in probabilities and in so doing know that with each trade there is a higher probability the trade will work than not. How do they know this? Because they have tested and traded their set up(s) enough times to know that the odds are in their favor. However, the successful traders also know that favorable odds do not guarantee success 100% of the time. Successful traders believe with each trade that the odds are in their favor but they also believe that the trade will not always work. By knowing this successful traders will be able to enter every trade with a clear mind open to the fact that anything can happen NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED ON THE LAST TRADE! If you believe this then you will never focus on the last trade, only on the present one.

 You cannot live in the past so there is no need to trade in it either.  Just as every day is a new one so is every trade.  Focus on the present battle and in war you will be victorious!!

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