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Key to winning at trading

  
  Education
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key-asrThe real secret to making money in the markets is simply by having bigger winners than losses. A robust system may only have a 50/50 win rate but the half that are winners are much bigger than the other half that are losers. That is the key to winning at trading, not stock picking, not some secret formula that will get you in at the bottom and out at the top. Winning traders simply have small losses when they are wrong and big wins when they are right. They don’t have to be right every time they just have to be right big and wrong small. It makes no difference what method you use to achieve this you just have to be consistent in your method once you have found a winning one.

 

4 Wisdom Thoughts for Traders

  
  Education
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Give up reliving your past trades.

Each trade is a new trade do not hold grudges against stocks and think they ‘owe’ you for past losses. Do not fall in love with a stock and hold it as it falls lower and lower.

Give up letting your trading define your self worth.

Do not let your trading define you. Diversify your life with friends, family, hobbies, and other interests. It is not healthy to become overly obsessed with the markets.

Give up on losing trades quickly when your stop is hit.

Your best trades will be the ones that are profitable from the start, if they immediately go against you be prepared to be stopped out. You can destroy your trading account when you start the “It will come back, I just have to wait” chant in the midst of a death spiral.

Give up on price targets let your winners run as far as they will go.

In the right market conditions trends can go on to unbelievable levels, the big wins during these trends can make your entire year profitable if losses are small on losing trades. If you set a predefined profit target you will miss the opportunity when the big move comes. Let a trailing stop take you out.

Paul Tudor Jones Quotes

  
  Education
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I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” …

“I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have” ..

The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.

Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.

When trading macro, you never have a complete information set or information edge the way analysts can have when trading individual securities. It’s a hell of a lot easier to get an information edge on one stock than it is on the S&P 500. When it comes to trading macro, you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, which is something of a lost art form.

These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates the illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary task is simply to find that explanation. As a result, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust the price action. The pain of gain is just too overwhelming for all of us to bear

Cut Your Losers

  
  Education
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A big debate among traders is whether to sell your losing stocks or hold onto them. Obviously, dependent on both the short and long-term outlook of a stock each side could have a winning argument.

Whether there is a right or wrong answer, when solely using technical analysis for your stock picking analysis, YOU MUST ALWAYS SELL YOUR LOSERS.

The great thing about technical analysis is that it takes emotion out of trading; however, emotion will always be there for other traders. That is why stocks can easily dip or jump higher in a single day – generally it is a reaction to a tangible action that just happened.

When executing trades through the signals of technical analysis, there are always stop points or places where the trade is consider a failure . For the most part, that point of interest is determined by recent price action of a stock. Learn more about the art of stops.

Technical analysis all about using the setup that gives the trader the highest probability of success. Once that setup is broken, your original probability is out the window. Get it?

Basically once your stock dips below the “failure” point the criteria that you essentially bought the stock on no longer stands. Now you are just swinging into the wind hoping for the stock to come back.

Instead I recommend you cut your losses and move on to the next trade. It’s all about keeping the odds in your favor.

Thoughts on Short Selling

  
  Education
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  • Never short based on price action. A stock that is going straight up can continue at least until you are bankrupt before falling to the ground.
  • Never short based on valuation. A stock might be expensive at 100 times earnings and it will be even more expensive at 200 times earnings.
  • Unless you are hedging, your short positions should be 1/3 the size of your long positions.
  • Believe it or not, short stocks that have high short interest. In general, short squeezes are a myth and stocks that have high short interest are usually shorted for a reason.

Don’t Marry Hot stocks, Just Date Them

  
  Education
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wakeourworld: (via TumbleOn)

  1. Hot stocks are only good when they are in up trends, when the party is over you have to break up with them.
  2. Hot stocks are great to trade in and out of but you don’t want to turn them into a life long investment.
  3. A good stock might look great on the outside with it’s price action but it may not have the best fundamentals for getting serious with.
  4. Hot stocks are great for the short term but for the long term you want a solid investment.
  5. Be careful with hot stocks they may look great on the outside but they can break your heart at any moment.
  6. A hot stock can be a lot of fun for awhile but they can be a lot of drama when no one wants them anymore.
  7. As long as a hot girlfriend is very popular  she will be happy but when no one wants to date her she goes into a downward spiral. This applies to hot stocks as well. 

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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  • Buy from the scared, sell to the greedy.
  • Buy their pain, not their gain.
  • Successful traders are quick to change their minds and have little pride of opinion.
  • I made my money because I always got out too soon. (Bernard Baruch)
  • Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars. (Bernard Baruch)
  • Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. (Jesse Livermore)
  • The faster a stock has climbed, the quicker it will fall.
  • The more certain the crowd is, the surer it is to be wrong. (Menschel)
  • Bear markets begin in good times. Bull markets begin in bad times
  • Never confuse genius with a bull market.
  • Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit

The Head Fake

  
  Education
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head-fake

Head fake:  A Head fake occurs when a player moves the head to fake a change in direction. 

In financial markets, a head fake is where the market appears to be moving in one direction but ends up moving in the opposite direction. For example, the price of a stock may appear to move up, and all indications prior to that are that it will move up, but shortly after reverses direction and starts moving down.

Head fakes are often caused by market makers who place bids and asks in such a way that they cause the apparent (fake) trend in order to later profit from it.  

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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There’s an old joke about the investor who never used any stop losses. His friend knew his big positions were getting crushed.

Out of concern, the friend asked, “How are you sleeping?”

“Like a baby” he answered.

“Really? You aren’t nervous or upset?”

“I sleep like a baby” he repeated.

“That’s amazing. I’d never be able to sleep through the night with those types of losses.”

“Who said anything about sleeping through the night? I said I slept like a baby: I wake up every two hours, wet myself and cry for 30 minutes before falling back to sleep.”

That’s why risk management is so critical: to save you from sleeping like a baby, and in the long run to save you a lot of money.

—There’s a reason flight attendants show you where the emergency exits are before takeoff. The same thinking should apply to investors. Prudent investors have a sell strategy in place beforethey get involved with a stock. Using any of these stop strategies helps keep your emotions out of the process when an investing emergency arises.

If-Then

  
  Education
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READ atleast twice and Read Daily :

The idea of IF-THEN scenarios in trading is often misconstrued one. I often see it being interpreted in a sense of predicting stock’s action. A trader trying to apply it in this sense tries to think in terms ‘If a stock does this, it’s going to do that“. This approach is more acceptable if a trader thinks in terms of probability instead of certainty in which case the above sentence becomes “If a stock does this, it’s likely to do that“. Nothing’s wrong with that as long as a trader realizes that probability is just that – a probability that is going to work in a statistically valid number of samples but will not predict the outcome of each given case.

I, however, apply IF-THENs in a slightly different manner. For me it’s about defining my own action in response to market fluctuations. My IF-THEN is a scenario where IF is what market does and THEN is what I do in response. My intepretation thus becomes ‘If a stock does this, I do that”.

Certainly, it’s a derivation of the version above – you can arrive to it from “if a stock does this then it’s likely to do that, so I am going to react in such and such way”. My version is just more cut and dry.

What are the advantages of this aproach and why do we need to build a set of such scenarios? (more…)

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