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ARE YOU A SPECULATOR?

Consider this excerpt:

Benjamin Graham, who believed in buying wonderful companies at a fair price rather than a fair company at a wonderful price, defines an investor as “an individual whose investment provides two quantitative qualities – safety of principal and an adequate rate of return.” There are many intricacies within business ownership investments, but does everyone in the stock market consider these particulars when investing in business ownership? Of course not, because not everybody in the stock market is an investor. Individuals who desire to become investors must enter the arena with goals that have a long-term investment horizon. Warren Buffett, a global financial market guru and head of Berkshire-Hathaway, puts it best when he says: “It’s bad to go to bed at night thinking about the price of a stock. We think about the value of a company and the company results; the stock market is there to serve you, not instruct you.”Hence, an investor does not buy a price and will not be affected by the ups and downs of the market. A sound investor buys well-managed businesses, with strong earnings growth and significant barriers to entry that will provide long-term security. A ‘purchaser of price’ is a speculator; a ‘purchaser of solid businesses’ with sound fundamentals is an investor.Mark Croskery

Overcoming the Fear of Loss in Trading

The fear of “pulling the trigger” stems mainly from the fear of loss. That same fear is responsible for 3 major actions or inactions that destroy traders:

  1. Cutting winners short. You take what you can and fear that if you don’t grab whatever small gains you have now, they would disappear.
  2. Keeping losers. You don’t dare to actualize your losses and hope that the trade will turn around.
  3. Unable to take every valid trade setup. You don’t dare to pull the trigger because you have associated the intense negative emotions of losing or the possibility of losing with being in a trade, so you escape from experiencing those feelings by not entering into a trade.

Psychology was never an issue when I was swing trading stocks, but has now become a major stumbling block when I am trading intraday futures. Hence I have just started to look into this.

All three psychologists mentioned the need to trade small. Other advice include doing visualization exercises, mindfulness exercises, and looking at the bigger picture.

I also found two resources with mindfulness training and a related webinar, links below.

Dr Brett Steenbarger

  • If it is due to lack of confidence in the system, back test and/or paper trade the system.
  • If it is due to fear of loss (Steenbarger calls it performance anxiety), do visualization exercises where you picture yourself in the stressful situation but doing the right thing and keeping yourself in the right frame of mind. Also paper trade and trade small. (more…)

Black Monday October 19th 1987 ,Dow Jones Lost 22.6% in Single session

black_monday

Where were you on Monday, Oct. 19, 1987?

Today is the first time since 2009 that October 19 has fallen on a Monday, and that has me thinking about that day. 

For you youngsters, that is the day better known as Black Monday, when the stock market plunged 508 points in a single session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 22.6 percent, the worst daily percentage loss on record, closing at 1,738.74.

The New York Times front page headline the next day asked, “Does 1987 Equal 1929?

Anyone working on Wall Street today who is under 40 is unlikely to have any professional memories of the event. To you, I suggest reading “Black Monday: The Stock Market Catastrophe of October 19, 1987” by Tim Metz. It is the definitive account of the crash, including the key players, personalities, decisions, news flows and first-hand accounts of what happened that day.

6 Points For Traders

1.  Anything can happen in the market…and often does.6-steps

2.  There is ALWAYS someone on the other side of the trade…ALWAYS.

3.  Stock market rules are made to be broken…because there are none.  Only yours… that you never break-for buying or for selling.

4.  There may be more than one pattern at work at the same time-both diametrically opposed to one another. 

5.  If on the wrong side jump to the other.  The market is no place for marriage or inflated egos.

6.  Never listen to the herd.  Instead, follow your own analysis and the charts you use as the basis of this analysis.  This is just one of the many reasons I do not watch Blue Channels before, during, or after hours.

10 Quotes from the Book “Hedge Fund Market Wizards”

  1. All markets look liquid during the bubble (massive uptrend), but it’s the liquidity after the bubble ends that matters.

  2. Markets tend to over discount the uncertainty related to identified risks. Conversely, markets tend to under discount risks that have not yet been expressly identified. Whenever the market is pointing at something and saying this is a risk to be concerned about, in my experience, most of the time, the risk ends up being not as bad as the market anticipated.

  3. Traders focus almost entirely on where to enter a trade. In reality, the entry size is often more important than the entry price because if the size is too large, a trader will be more likely to exit a good trade on a meaningless adverse price move. The larger the position, the greater the danger that trading decisions will be driven by fear rather than by judgment and experience.

  4. Virtually all traders experience periods when they are out of sync with the markets. When you are in a losing streak, you can’t turn the situation around by trying harder. When trading is going badly, Clark’s advice is to get out of everything and take a holiday. Liquidating positions will allow you to regain objectivity.

  5. Staring at the screen all day is counterproductive. He believes that watching every tick will lead to both selling good positions prematurely and overtrading. He advises traders to find something else (preferably productive) to occupy part of their time to avoid the pitfalls of watching the market too closely.

  6. When markets are trending up strongly, and there is bad news, the bad news counts for nothing. But if there is a break that reminds people what it is like to lose money in equities, then suddenly the buying is not mindless anymore. People start looking at the fundamentals, and in this case, I knew the fundamentals were very ugly indeed.

  7. If you don’t understand why you are in a trade, you won’t understand when it is the right time to sell, which means you will only sell when the price action scares you. Most of the time when price action scares you, it is a buying opportunity, not a sell indicator.

  8. Normally, I let winners run and cut losers. In 2009, however, as a result of the posttraumatic effects of going through the September 2008 to February 2009 period—talking to clients who are going out of business and seeing 50 percent of your fund redeemed is all very wearing—I got into the habit of snatching quick 10 to 15 percent profits in individual positions. Most of these positions then went up another 35 to 40 percent. I consider my pattern of taking quick profits in 2009 a dreadful error that I think came about because I had lost a degree of confidence due to experiencing my first down year in 2008.

  9. As an equity trader, I learned the short-selling lessons relatively early. There is no high for a concept stock. It is always better to be long before they have already moved a lot than to try to figure out where to go short.

  10. Now that you have switched from net long to net short, what would get you long again? – Buying. If all of a sudden stocks stopped going down on bad news that would be a positive sign.

SUCCESSFUL TRADER THAT YOU WANT TO BECOME

The successful trader that you want to become is a future projection of yourself that you have to grow into. Growth implies expansion, learning, and creating a new way of expressing yourself. This is true even if you’re already a successful trader and are reading this book to become more successful. Many of the new ways in which you will learn to express yourself will be in direct conflict with ideas and beliefs you presently hold about the nature of trading. You may or may not already be aware of some of these beliefs. In any case, what you currently hold to be true about the nature of trading will argue to keep things just the way they are, in spite of your frustrations and unsatisfying results. – Mark Douglas

Successful trader

Trading is Mental Game -5 points

1.    A trader can only build confidence to take a real time trade entry after they have done the necessary homework in back testing through multiple market environments to know the probabilities of success and the possibilities of failure. Understanding how the markets have behaved with past price patterns can give the trader the boldness they need to push the submit button on their broker’s screen.

2.    Understanding the price level where your stop loss on a trade will be and also your potential price target will give you a good idea of the risk and reward dynamics of a trade set up. It is easier to trade when you know that you are risking $100 for a chance to make $300 and the odds are on your side with a great entry.

3.    Structuring your position sizing so that if your stop is hit you will only lose 1% of your total trading capital will eliminate much of your fear of failure. The urgency and importance of any one trade should be converted into the calm assurance of knowing that the current trade is just one of the next one hundred trades. You can overcome the majority of anxiety around trading when you simply trade small enough so that any one trade or a string of trades will not affect your long term trading success.

4.    Trading what you know and are familiar with is low stress trading. Trading a chart pattern, stock, or index that you have traded for years is familiar territory. Also trading markets inside your circle of competence creates confidence. Only trade futures, options, stocks, bonds, forex, and indexes that you understand. Many traders drown chasing unfamiliar waterfalls.

5.    A lot of performance confidence comes from having a detailed trading plan on what you will do before the market opens and the faith in yourself to execute that plan after the market opens. Knowing that your decisions will be based on the facts and the reality of price action and that you will not be swept away with emotions and ego while trading can allow you to rise above anxiety and instead operate with faith in yourself and your system

12 Signs You’re in a Bad Trade

  1. Your entry is based on your opinion not a valid signal.
  2. Your bet is that a trend will change with no reason behind the bet.
  3. You are entering out of greed after a big move.
  4. If you are wrong about the trade you will suffer a huge loss.
  5. You enter a trade with no stop loss.
  6. You enter a trade with no exit strategy to bank any profits.
  7. You enter based on someone’s opinion.
  8. You enter a trade because you are bored.
  9. You are trading a market you have done zero back testing or chart studies on.
  10. You are trading futures or option contracts you do not understand.
  11. You are trading with confidence even though you have zero confidence.
  12. You have no idea what the hell you are doing.

Sir John Templeton 16 Rules For Investment Success

Interesting set of rules from legendary investor John Templeton:

1. Invest for maximum total real return
2. Invest — Don’t trade or speculate
3. Remain flexible and open minded about types of investment
4. Buy Low
5. When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks.
6. Buy value, not market trends or the economic outlook
7. Diversify. In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers
8. Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you
9. Aggressively monitor your investments
10. Don’t Panic
11. Learn from your mistakes
12. Begin with a Prayer
13. Outperforming the market is a difficult task
14. An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand all the questions
15. There’s no free lunch
16. Do not be fearful or negative too often

 Complete explanation after the jump (more…)

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