Archives of “risk” tag
rssTrading: Doing the Homework
Many new traders fail in the stock market simply because they rush in without putting in the proper time and discipline in doing their homework. Trading is a professional endeavor much like any other career, you will only get out of it what you put into it. There is no easy money, you will have to earn it by out witting, out playing, and out smarting the majority of other market participants.
You need to learn ten things to be a successful trader:
- How to manager your risk per trade.
- What systems and methods really make money over the long term.
- What system fits your personality and beliefs about the market.
- How much heat you can you handle. How big can you trade with out emotions taking over?
- You must learn how the market actually works, trends, flows, and functions.
- Learn to focus only on what makes money in the market, everything else is noise.
- Discover who the greatest traders of all time were and study how they operated.
- Find out what the best books on trading are and read them.
- Study the charts of the stocks you are trading to understand how it works with trends, support, resistance, and moving averages.
- Practice paper trading, simulated accounts, and trading small positions of real money until you have mastered your trading plan. (more…)
5-Costly Trading Mistakes
1. Undercapitalized. If the trader does not have the adequate capital to trade with, then money, not learning how to trade, will be the primary focus. Few, if any, ever succeed trading scared money.
2. Overtrading. The idea is to make money and keep it, not give it all back because of recklessness. There is no such thing as being perfect when it comes to trading. Overtrading will easily prove just how imperfect you are.
3. Trading Too Many Markets. Learn to be a specialist because in trading it is best to put all your eggs in one basket while knowing how best to watch and protect that basket very closely.
4. Believing You Are Invincible. Few activities teach humility as well as trading. Seasoned traders respect the risk while novice traders treat success as their birthright.
5. Lack of Dicipline. You have to have a game plan when trading. Failure to have a plan betrays your lack of discipline and feeds your desire to trade off the cuff. Trading this way is a recipe for disaster. Just ask someone who has tried it.
5 Trading quotes for Weekend
-If you are hesitating to take a position, that indicates a lack of confidence that is not necessary. Just get into the position and PLACE A STOP. Day Traders lose money in positions everyday. Keep them small. The confidence you need is not in whether or not you are right, the confidence you need is in knowing you will stick to your stop no matter what. Therefore you can actually alleviate this hesitancy to pull the trigger by continually sticking to your stops and reinforcing this behavior.
-You want to own the stock before it breaks out, then sell it to the momentum players after it breaks out. If you buy breakouts, realize that professional day traders are handing off their positions to you in order to test the strength of the trend. They will typically buy it back below the breakout point which is typically where you will set your stop when you buy a breakout. (In case you ever wondered why you get stopped out on a lot of failed breakouts).
-Embracing your opinion leads to financial ruin. When you find yourself rationalizing or justifying a decline by saying things like, “They are just shaking out weak hands here,” or “The market makers are just dropping the bid here,” then you are embracing your opinion. Don’t hang onto a loser. You can always get back in.
-Professional day traders focus on limiting risk and protecting capital. Amateur traders focus on how much money they can make on each trade. Professionals day traders always take money away from amateurs traders.
-In the stock market, heroes get crushed. Averaging down on a losing position is a “heroic move” that is akin to Superman taking a spoonful of Kryptonite. The stock market is not about blind courage. It is about finesse. Don’t be a hero.
The 7 rules of Managing Risk
2.) Remain flexible – When you don’t know what’s going to happen, the best strategy is to be ready for anything.
3.) Take reasoned risks – reasonable exposure and positive edges only.
A Reasoned risk is more like an educated guess rather than a roll of the dice. A Reasoned risk limits exposure so that one or a few trades will not affect the trader’s account too adversely should the trades turn out badly. Great traders aren’t gamblers.
4.) Prepare to be wrong
5.) Actively seek reality
6.) Respond quickly to change – When a trader determined a place to get out of the trade, a competent trader will respond quickly and get out, thereby reducing his exposure to continued uncertainty to zero.
7.) Focus on decisions, not outcomes.
7 Basic Truths of Trading
- Well-defined objectives. Are you trying to beat a certain return hurdle, like inflation or an index? Are you trying to generate 5% or 50% returns per year? You have to understand what you are trying to do and then bend your investment process around it. The other way around isn’t possible.
- An understanding of the markets that you will be operating in. Stick to what you know. Narrow your focus so as to make the most of your efforts. You need to know everything about the markets where you’re taking positions.
- A clearly defined methodology for getting into and out of positions. This includes which indicators, news items, fundamental data points you look at and when you take action. This is your checklist—you should have it so well defined that you can be sure of the exact steps along the way. You need a game plan so that you stay consistent and disciplined and don’t get flustered under pressure. It should become automatic and engrained.
- This methodology must utilize your strengths and skills and suit your personality. A cerebral, research-driven economist should put that to work, instead of becoming a swing trader based on technical analysis. An adrenaline-fueled athlete should be an intraday trader, not be a long-term trend follower. Remember, every successful trader has a methodology of their own which plays to their strengths and their personality.
- This methodology has a positive statistical expectancy– the gains from winners more than outweigh the losses on losing trades. Use your own statistics and the Kelly Formula for a rough guide as to whether or not you have positive statistical expectancy. On average you want to expect to win on an individual trade, meaning that your expected wins outweigh your prospective losses. That doesn’t guarantee that you will actually profit on each trade, it just means that over a sufficiently large quantity of trades, you will come out ahead.
- A well-stated risk management policy for when you get out of losing positions and how you manage risk overall. Cut losers. Let winners ride. Many people have tried to overthink this rule and ended up losing as a result. Furthermore, you never want to put yourself in a position where you can blow up, so you need to be thinking how you can avoid taking excessive risk in the first place. Just remember Warren Buffett’s Two Rules:A framework for sizing positions. This is related to risk management— obviously, you don’t want to take a position that’s over a certain size, ever. But you may also want to size positions according to certain specific critieria, such as your conviction in the position or volatility in the market. Or they could all be the same size. Nonetheless, your methodology has to be able to address it and come up with a well-reasoned answer.
- Never Lose Money.
- Never Forget Rule #1.
- A framework for sizing positions. This is related to risk management— obviously, you don’t want to take a position that’s over a certain size, ever. But you may also want to size positions according to certain specific critieria, such as your conviction in the position or volatility in the market. Or they could all be the same size. Nonetheless, your methodology has to be able to address it and come up with a well-reasoned answer.
Learning to do nothing
This is a lesson I keep needing to come back to. I can see that trading for amusement has been my own downfall a thousand times in the last few years, and to just sit at the sidelines can be painful.


I just read a brilliant quote by the trader John Piper.
“Once able to trade, it is very likely that a person will make the emotional decision to do just that when bored. This timing is unlikely to correspond with a low risk trading opportunity.”
“Once able to trade, it is very likely that a person will make the emotional decision to do just that when bored. This timing is unlikely to correspond with a low risk trading opportunity.”
Trade Sizing Depends on Risk Aversion and Volatility
- Risk aversion
- When I was a young man I wanted to devise objective risk systems. In other words, once you have a system, what is the right size to trade, period.
- After years of working on this I convinced myself that it did not have a unique answer. You need at least one subjective piece of the puzzle to put it together, and that is an individual’s risk aversion. Now that is subjective.
- There is no rule that says how averse you should be to risk, that is an integral element of your personality. But unless you know how averse to risk you are or unless you can impute risk aversion to your clients, you really can’t settle the question of how big you should trade.
- Volatility
- Estimating volatility determines to a large extent what your position sizes should be.
- A slight improvement in our volatility estimators can potentially produce a significant long-term benefit.
The power of fear
Fear is the emotion of survival.
Before every game or before the first trade of the day there is always that little bit of uncertainty. That feeling in your stomach. For me it always went away as soon as the first hit or the dink of my first order getting filled. Same is true with my fear of public speaking.
It was not always that way. I had to do the work, be prepared, and convince myself whatever the outcome I would work to achieve a better outcome the next time. Eventually the fear of not doing became worse than the fear of doing.
Like I always say, do it once, the good habits that is. (more…)
Errors by Traders
1. Placing a limit order in and then leaving the screen and not canceling the limit when you wouldn’t want it to be filled later or some news might come out and get you elected when the real prices is a fortune worse for you
2. Not getting up or being in front of screen at the time when you’re supposed to trade.
3. Taking a phone call from an agitating personage, be it romantic or the service or whatever that gets you so discombobulated that you go on tilt.
4. Talking to people during the trading day when you need to watch the ticks to put your order in.
5. Not having in front of you what the market did on the corresponding day of the week or month or hour so that you’re trading for a repeat of some hopeful exuberant event which never happens twice when you want it to happen.
6. Any thoughts or actual romance during the trading day. It will make you too enervated or too ready to pull the trigger depending on what the outcome was.
7. Leaving for lunch during the day or having a heavy lunch.
8. Kibbitsing from people in the office who have noticed something that should be brought to your attention.
9. Any procedures that violate the rules of the British Navy where only a 6 inch plank separated you from disaster like in our field.
10. Trying to get even when you have a loss by increasing your size and risk.
11. Not having adequate capital to meet any margin calls that mite occur during the day, thereby allowing your broker to close out your position at a stop while he takes the opposite side. What others do you come up with?
Speculation by definition requires some amount of loss otherwise the game is fixed. However, I believe loss can be broken down into avoidable loss and unavoidable loss. Unavoidable loss is, well, unavoidable. But in my personal experience (and based on pretty much all speculative loss I have seen or read about) all avoidable speculative loss is traced back to some core elements/violations: not being disciplined (many interpretations), getting emotional and all of the associated errors and mistakes that brings, sizing positions too big so that regardless of odds you eventually have to reach ruin, not being consistent in your approach (the switches), not managing your risk adequately either via position sizing or stop losses, finally you have to be patient for the right pitch whatever that may be for you.