rss

Quotes from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

reminiscencesofstockoperatorFrom my trove of interesting market quotes, here are my favourite snippets from “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator” by Edwin Lefevre. I enjoyed Reminiscences greatly, both on the first and second readings.While I disagree with some of his pearls of wisdom, many are definitely worth taking on board. For your contemplation:

I did precisely the wrong thing.  The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it.  The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out.  Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game.  Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.If all I have is ten dollars and I risk it, I am much braver than when I risk a million if I have another million salted away.
I’ve got friends, of course, but my business has always been the same – a one-man affair.  That is why I have always played a lone hand.
What beat me was not having brains enough to stick to my own game – that is, to play the market only when I was satisfied that precedents favoured my play.  There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is also the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time.  No man can have adequate reasons for buying or selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.
It happened just as I figured.  The traders hammered the stocks in which they figured would uncover the most stops, and sure enough, prices slid off.
For one thing, the automatic closing out of your trade when the margin reached the exhaustion point was the best kind of stop-loss order. 
The game taught me the game.  And it didn’t spare me rod while teaching. 
If somebody had told me my method would not work I nevertheless would have tried it out to make sure for myself, for when I am wrong only one thing convinces me of it, and that is, to lose money.  And I am only right when I make money.  That is speculating.
I knew of course, there must be a limit to the advances and an end to the crazy buying of A.O.T.-Any Old Thing-and I got bearish.  But every time I sold I lost money, and if it hadn’t been that I ran darn quick I would have lost a lot more. 
Early that fall I not only was cleaned out again but I was so sick of the game I could no longer beat that I decided to leave New York and try something else some other place.  I had been trading since my fourteenth year.  I had made my first thousand dollars when I was a kid at fifteen, and my first ten thousand before I was twenty one.  I had made and lost a ten thousand stake more than once.  In New York I had made thousands and lost them.  I got up to fifty thousand and two days later that went.  I had no other business and knew no other game.  After several years I was back where I began.  No-worse, for I had acquired habits and a style of living that required money; though that part didn’t bother me as much as being wrong so consistently.
There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept up their regard for precedent.  But they did not hit me very hard – they couldn’t, with my shoestring margins.  My relations with my brokers were friendly enough.  Their accounts and records did not always agree with mine, and the differences uniformly happened to be against me.  Curious coincidence-not!  But I fought for my own and usually won in the end.  They always had the hope of getting from me what I had taken from them.  They regarded my winnings as temporary loans, I think.
Don’t misunderstand me.  I never allowed pleasure to interfere with business.  When I lost it was always because I was wrong and not because I was suffering from dissipation or excesses.  There were never any shattered nerves or rum-shaken limbs to spoil my game.  I couldn’t afford anything that kept me from feeling physically and mentally fit.  Even now I am usually in bed by ten.  As a young man I never kept late hours, because I could not do business properly on insufficient sleep.
For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks.  An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen.  So far, all very well.  But what else did I do?  Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness.  I made up my mind to be wise carefully, conservatively.  Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions.  And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came.  And I saw my stock go kitting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket.  They say you never go broke taking profits.  No, you don’t.  But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realised at last that when old Mr Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. 
The market does not beat them.  They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.  Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did.  He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight. 
Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me.  Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.  In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end. 
Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
Suppose he buys his first hundred, and that promptly shows him a loss.  Why should he go to work and get more stock?  He ought to see at once that he is in the wrong; at least temporarily.
The Union Pacific incident in Saratoga in the summer of 1906 made me more independent than ever of tips and talk – that is, of the opinions, surmises and suspicions of other people, however friendly or however able they might be personally.  Events, not vanity, proved for me that I could read the tape more accurately than most of the people about me.  I also was better equipped than the average customer of Harding Brothers in that I was utterly free from speculative prejudices.  The bear side doesn’t appeal any more than the bull side, or vice versa.  My one steadfast prejudice is against being wrong. 
When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish.  But you find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks.  I do not allow my possessions – or my prepossessions either – to do any thinking for me.  That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape.
Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market. 
… I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market it is not well to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing.
Of course, if a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the same mistake twice.  But he will make any one of ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original.  The Mistake family is so large that there is always one of them around when you want to see what you can do in the fool-play line. 
Losing money is the least of my troubles.  A loss never troubles me after I take it.  I forget it overnight.  But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul. 
“I can’t sleep” answered the nervous one.
“Why not?” asked the friend.
“I am carrying so much cotton that I can’t sleep thinking about.  It is wearing me out. What can I do?”
“Sell down to the sleeping point”, answered the friend.

He will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection that he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you have determined it.  But in actual practice a man has to guard against many things, and most of all against himself – that is, against human nature.
A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape must agree with him.  Never argue with it or ask for reasons or explanations.
He should accumulate his line on the way up.  Let him buy one-fifth of his full line.  If that does not show him a profit he must not increase his holdings because he has obviously begun wrong; he is wrong temporarily and there is no profit in being wrong at any time. 
Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to.
That was the only one case.  There isn’t a man on Wall Street who has not lost money trying to make the market pay for an automobile or a bracelet or a motor boat or a painting. 
More than once in the past I had run up a shoe-string in to hundreds of thousands.  Sooner or later the market would offer me an opportunity.
The game does not change and neither does human nature.
After I paid off my debts in full I put a pretty fair amount in to annuities.  I made up my mind I wasn’t going to be strapped and uncomfortable and minus a stake ever again. 
Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected – I might even say of the unexpectable – ranks high.
I started my buying operations in the winter of 1917.  I took quite a lot of coffee.  The market however, did nothing to speak of.  It continued inactive and as for the price, it did not go up as I had expected.  The outcome of it all was that I simply carried my line to no purpose for nine long months. 
I trade on my own information and follow my own methods.
He was utterly fearless but never reckless.  He could, and did, turn on a twinkling if he found he was wrong. 
At the same time I realise that the best of all tipsters, the most persuasive of all salesmen, is the tape.
The speculator’s deadly enemies are: Ignorance, greed, fear and hope.  All the statue books in the world and all the rule books on all the Exchanges of the earth cannot eliminate these from the human animal. 
On Pat Hearne – He made money in stocks, and that made people ask him for advice.  He would never give any.  If they asked him point-blank for his opinion about the wisdom of their commitments he used a favourite race-track maxim of his: “You can’t tell till you bet.” He traded in our office.  He would  buy one hundred shares of some active stock and when, or if, it went up 1 percent, he would buy another hundred.  On another points advance, another hundred shares; and so on.  He used to say that he wasn’t playing the game to make money for others and therefore would put in a stop-loss order one point below the price of his last purchase.  When the price kept going up he simply moved up his stop with it.  On a 1 percent reaction he was stopped out.  He declared he did not see any sense in losing more than one point, whether it came out of his original margin or out of his paper profits.
“You know, a professional gambler is not looking for long shots, but for sure money.  Of course, long shots are fine when they come in.  In the stock market Pat wasn’t after tips or playing to catch twenty-points-a-week advances, but sure money in sufficient quantity to provide him with a good sense of living.  Of all the thousands of outsiders I have run across in Wall Street, Pat Hearne was the only one who saw in stock speculation merely a game of chance like faro or roulette, but nevertheless had the sense to stick to a relatively sound betting method.
“After Pat Hearne’s death one of our customers who had always traded with Pat and used his system made over a hundred thousand dollars in Luckawana.  Then he switched over to some other stock and because he had made a big stake he thought he need not stick to Pat’s way.  When a reaction came, instead of cutting his losses he let them run – as though they were profits.  Of course every cent went.  When he finally quit he owed us several thousand dollars.

And he was right.  I sometimes think that speculation must be an unnatural sort of business, because I find that the average speculator has arrayed against his own nature.  The weaknesses that all men are prone to are fatal to success in speculation – usually those very weaknesses that make him likable to his fellows or that he himself particularly guards against in those other ventures of his where they are not nearly so dangerous as when he is trading in commodities or stocks. 
The public ought always to keep in mind the elementals of stock trading.  When a stock is going up no elaborate explanation is needed as to why it is going up.  It takes continuous buying to make a stock keep going up.  As long as it does so, with only small and natural reactions from time to time, it is a pretty safe proposition to trail with it. 
But if after a long steady rise a stock turns and gradually begins to go down, with only occasionally small rallies, it is obvious that the line of least resistance has changed from upward to downward.  Such being the case why should anyone ask for explanations?  There are probably very good reasons why it should go down…

Trading: Doing the Homework

HOMEWORKMany new traders fail in the stock market simply because they rush in without putting in the proper time and discipline in doing their homework. Trading is a professional endeavor much like any other career, you will only get out of it what you put into it. There is no easy money, you will have to earn it by out witting, out playing, and out smarting the majority of other market participants.

You need to learn ten things to be a successful trader:

  1. How to manager your risk per trade.
  2. What systems and methods really make money over the long term.
  3. What system fits your personality and beliefs about the market.
  4. How much heat you can you handle. How big can you trade with out emotions taking over?
  5. You must learn how the market actually works, trends, flows, and functions.
  6. Learn to focus only on what makes money in the market, everything else is noise.
  7. Discover who the greatest traders of all time were and study how they operated.
  8. Find out what the best books on trading are and read them.
  9. Study the charts of the stocks you are trading to understand how it works with trends, support, resistance, and moving averages.
  10. Practice paper trading, simulated accounts, and trading small positions of real money until you have mastered your trading plan. (more…)

5-Costly Trading Mistakes

1.  Undercapitalized.  If the trader does not have the adequate capital to trade with, then money, not learning how to trade, will be the primary focus.  Few, if any, ever succeed trading scared money.

2.  Overtrading.  The idea is to make money and keep it, not give it all back because of recklessness.  There is no such thing as being perfect when it comes to trading. Overtrading will easily prove just how imperfect you are. 

3.  Trading Too Many Markets.  Learn to be a specialist because in trading it is best to put all your eggs in one basket while knowing how best to watch and protect that basket very closely.

4.  Believing You Are Invincible.  Few activities teach humility as well as trading.  Seasoned traders respect the risk while novice traders treat success as their birthright.

5.  Lack of Dicipline.  You have to have a game plan when trading.  Failure to have a plan betrays your lack of discipline and feeds your desire to trade off the cuff.  Trading this way is a recipe for disaster.  Just ask someone who has tried it.

5 Trading quotes for Weekend

-If you are hesitating to take a position, that indicates a lack of confidence that is not necessary. Just get into the position and PLACE A STOP. Day Traders lose money in positions everyday. Keep them small. The confidence you need is not in whether or not you are right, the confidence you need is in knowing you will stick to your stop no matter what. Therefore you can actually alleviate this hesitancy to pull the trigger by continually sticking to your stops and reinforcing this behavior.

-You want to own the stock before it breaks out, then sell it to the momentum players after it breaks out. If you buy breakouts, realize that professional day traders are handing off their positions to you in order to test the strength of the trend. They will typically buy it back below the breakout point which is typically where you will set your stop when you buy a breakout. (In case you ever wondered why you get stopped out on a lot of failed breakouts).

-Embracing your opinion leads to financial ruin. When you find yourself rationalizing or justifying a decline by saying things like, “They are just shaking out weak hands here,” or “The market makers are just dropping the bid here,” then you are embracing your opinion. Don’t hang onto a loser. You can always get back in.

-Professional day traders focus on limiting risk and protecting capital. Amateur traders focus on how much money they can make on each trade. Professionals day traders always take money away from amateurs traders.

-In the stock market, heroes get crushed. Averaging down on a losing position is a “heroic move” that is akin to Superman taking a spoonful of Kryptonite. The stock market is not about blind courage. It is about finesse. Don’t be a hero.

The 7 rules of Managing Risk

1.)Overcome fearRisk Management

2.) Remain flexible – When you don’t know what’s going to happen, the best strategy is to be ready for anything.

3.) Take reasoned risks – reasonable exposure and positive edges only.

A Reasoned risk is more like an educated guess rather than a roll of the dice.  A Reasoned risk limits exposure so that one or a few trades will not affect the trader’s account too adversely should the trades turn out badly.  Great traders aren’t gamblers.

4.) Prepare to be wrong

5.) Actively seek reality

6.) Respond quickly to change – When a trader determined a place to get out of the trade, a competent trader will respond quickly and get out, thereby reducing his exposure to continued uncertainty to zero.

7.) Focus on decisions, not outcomes.

7 Basic Truths of Trading

  1. Well-defined objectives. Are you trying to beat a certain return hurdle, like inflation or an index? Are you trying to generate 5% or 50% returns per year? You have to understand what you are trying to do and then bend your investment process around it. The other way around isn’t possible.
  2. An understanding of the markets that you will be operating in. Stick to what you know. Narrow your focus so as to make the most of your efforts. You need to know everything about the markets where you’re taking positions.
  3.  A clearly defined methodology for getting into and out of positions. This includes which indicators, news items, fundamental data points you look at and when you take action. This is your checklist—you should have it so well defined that you can be sure of the exact steps along the way. You need a game plan so that you stay consistent and disciplined and don’t get flustered under pressure. It should become automatic and engrained.
  4. This methodology must utilize your strengths and skills and suit your personality. A cerebral, research-driven economist should put that to work, instead of becoming a swing trader based on technical analysis. An adrenaline-fueled athlete should be an intraday trader, not be a long-term trend follower. Remember, every successful trader has a methodology of their own which plays to their strengths and their personality.
  5. This methodology has a positive statistical expectancy– the gains from winners more than outweigh the losses on losing trades. Use your own statistics and the Kelly Formula for a rough guide as to whether or not you have positive statistical expectancy.  On average you want to expect to win on an individual trade, meaning that your expected wins outweigh your prospective losses. That doesn’t guarantee that you will actually profit on each trade, it just means that over a sufficiently large quantity of trades, you will come out ahead.
  6. A well-stated risk management policy for when you get out of losing positions and how you manage risk overall. Cut losers. Let winners ride.  Many people have tried to overthink this rule and ended up losing as a result. Furthermore, you never want to put yourself in a position where you can blow up, so you need to be thinking how you can avoid taking excessive risk in the first place. Just remember Warren Buffett’s Two Rules:A framework for sizing positions. This is related to risk management— obviously, you don’t want to take a position that’s over a certain size, ever. But you may also want to size positions according to certain specific critieria, such as your conviction in the position or volatility in the market. Or they could all be the same size. Nonetheless, your methodology has to be able to address it and come up with a well-reasoned answer.
    1. Never Lose Money.
    2. Never Forget Rule #1.
    1. A framework for sizing positions. This is related to risk management— obviously, you don’t want to take a position that’s over a certain size, ever. But you may also want to size positions according to certain specific critieria, such as your conviction in the position or volatility in the market. Or they could all be the same size. Nonetheless, your methodology has to be able to address it and come up with a well-reasoned answer.

Learning to do nothing

This is a lesson I keep needing to come back to. I can see that trading for amusement has been my own downfall a thousand times in the last few years, and to just sit at the sidelines can be painful.
learntodonothing
I just read a brilliant quote by the trader John Piper.
“Once able to trade, it is very likely that a person will make the emotional decision to do just that when bored. This timing is unlikely to correspond with a low risk trading opportunity.”

Trade Sizing Depends on Risk Aversion and Volatility

  • Risk aversion
    • When I was a young man I wanted to devise objective risk systems. In other words, once you have a system, what is the right size to trade, period.
    • After years of working on this I convinced myself that it did not have a unique answer. You need at least one subjective piece of the puzzle to put it together, and that is an individual’s risk aversion. Now that is subjective.
    • There is no rule that says how averse you should be to risk, that is an integral element of your personality. But unless you know how averse to risk you are or unless you can impute risk aversion to your clients, you really can’t settle the question of how big you should trade.
  • Volatility
    • Estimating volatility determines to a large extent what your position sizes should be.
    • A slight improvement in our volatility estimators can potentially produce a significant long-term benefit.

The power of fear

Fear is the emotion of survival.

Before every game or before the first trade of the day there is always that little bit of uncertainty. That feeling in your stomach. For me it always went away as soon as the first hit or the dink of my first order getting filled. Same is true with my fear of public speaking.

It was not always that way. I had to do the work, be prepared, and convince myself whatever the outcome I would work to achieve a better outcome the next time. Eventually the fear of not doing became worse than the fear of doing.

Like I always say, do it once, the good habits that is. (more…)

Errors by Traders

1. Placing a limit order in and then leaving the screen and not canceling the limit when you wouldn’t want it to be filled later or some news might come out and get you elected when the real prices is a fortune worse for you

2. Not getting up or being in front of screen at the time when you’re supposed to trade.

3. Taking a phone call from an agitating personage, be it romantic or the service or whatever that gets you so discombobulated that you go on tilt.

4. Talking to people during the trading day when you need to watch the ticks to put your order in.

5. Not having in front of you what the market did on the corresponding day of the week or month or hour so that you’re trading for a repeat of some hopeful exuberant event which never happens twice when you want it to happen.

6. Any thoughts or actual romance during the trading day. It will make you too enervated or too ready to pull the trigger depending on what the outcome was.

7. Leaving for lunch during the day or having a heavy lunch.

8. Kibbitsing from people in the office who have noticed something that should be brought to your attention.

9. Any procedures that violate the rules of the British Navy where only a 6 inch plank separated you from disaster like in our field.

10. Trying to get even when you have a loss by increasing your size and risk.

11. Not having adequate capital to meet any margin calls that mite occur during the day, thereby allowing your broker to close out your position at a stop while he takes the opposite side. What others do you come up with?

Speculation by definition requires some amount of loss otherwise the game is fixed. However, I believe loss can be broken down into avoidable loss and unavoidable loss. Unavoidable loss is, well, unavoidable. But in my personal experience (and based on pretty much all speculative loss I have seen or read about) all avoidable speculative loss is traced back to some core elements/violations: not being disciplined (many interpretations), getting emotional and all of the associated errors and mistakes that brings, sizing positions too big so that regardless of odds you eventually have to reach ruin, not being consistent in your approach (the switches), not managing your risk adequately either via position sizing or stop losses, finally you have to be patient for the right pitch whatever that may be for you.

Go to top