Archives of “risk management” tag

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Warren Buffett Teaches : Part – I

  
  Education
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Buffet learned how to involve in high probably investments since high-school. Back in those years, he and one of his friends bought a reconditioned pinball machine for $25. They put the game in a barber shop. They checked the coin box at the end of the first day and found $4. “I figured I had discovered the wheel,” says Buffet. Eventually the pinball business was netting $50 per week. By the time Warren graduated high school, he is an owner of a small farm in Nebraska and has $9,000 in his bank account (more…)

The Ten Most Foolish Things a Trader Can Do

  
  Education
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In the spirit of April Fools Day here are the ‘Ten Most Foolish Things a Trader Can Do’. In no particular order of foolishness.

  1. Try to predict the future movement of a stock, and stay in it no matter what.
  2. Risk your entire account on one trade with no stop loss plan.
  3. Have a winning trade but no exit strategy to get out, no trailing stop or exhaustion top signal.
  4. Ask for and follow the advice of others instead of trading with your own trading plan, method, rules, and system.
  5. Trade your emotions instead of signals: buy when you are greedy and sell when you are afraid.
  6. Trade your opinions, not a quantified method.
  7. Do not bother to do your homework on trading, just jump in and trade, you are smart, you will figure it out.
  8. Short the best and most expensive stocks in the stock market and buy the cheapest junk stocks.
  9. Put on trades you are 100% sure are winners so you do not even need a stop loss or risk management.
  10. Buy more of a trade that you are losing money in and sell your winners quickly to lock in small profits.

Do not trade foolishly my friend.

13 Trading Rules

  
  Education
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  • Let winners run. While momentum is in phase, the market can run much further than might be expected.
  • Corollary to that rule: Do not exit winners without reason!
  • Be quick to admit when wrong and get flat.
  • Sometimes a time stop is the right solution. If a position is entered, but the anticipated scenario does not develop then get out.
  • Remember: if one thing isn’t happening the other thing probably is. Historically, this has never been good for me…
  • Be careful of correlations. Several positions can often equal one large position bearing unacceptable risk. Please think.
  • I am responsible for risk management, money management, trade management, doing the analytical work and putting on every trade that comes.
  • I am not responsible for the outcome of any one trade. Markets are highly random. I do not have a crystal ball. I am not as smart as I think I am.
  • Risk management is the first and last responsibility. I can make almost any mistake and be ok as long as I do not violate my risk management parameters.
  • Opportunity comes every day. Do not neglect the work. Must do analysis every day.
  • Opportunity comes every day. Get out of poor positions. Move on.
  • I am a better countertrend trader than a trend trader. Sometimes the crowd is right, and they will run me over at those times if I’m not quick to admit I’m wrong.
  • If you’re going to do something stupid, at least do it on smaller size.

10 Secrets of Trading

  
  Education
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A ROBUST METHOD: Much like a casino you must have an edge in your trading. Your system must be a robust one with the odds on your side either through many more wins than losses with equal capital at risk or small losses and big wins over a long period of time.

CONFIDENCE: You must have the confidence in your method that it is a winner in the long term through proper research or back testing. You also must have confidence in yourself to execute the plan.

DISCIPLINE: A trader must have the discipline to take their predetermined entries and exits. The trader is the weakest link in trading no method works with out the discipline to execute it in a live market.

TRADING PLAN: A trader has to have a plan on what they will trade, how much they will trade, the time frame they are trading on and rules that they will follow for entries and exits.

EMOTIONAL CONTROL: The winning trader must have the ability to not make decisions based on emotions. Winning traders still feel emotions but have the ability to stay on their trading plan instead of making decisions based on fear or greed in the heat of market action.

RISK/REWARD: The best trades to take have the potential to win $3 for each $1  risked. With this ratio a trader can lose on two trades our of three and still make money. This is a defined edge and keeps the trader looking for only the best instruments to trade and taking the best entry points as part of their system.

EGO CONTROL: The destruction of many traders is when they believe they do not need risk management or rules and that they are smarter than the market and begin taking trades based purely on their opinions instead of principles, price action, and chart action. Good traders are humble traders.

RISK OF RUIN: The best traders understand the best way to ensure their survival in trading is with only putting 1% of their total trading capital at risk in any one trade either through great entries with tight stop losses or trading smaller position sizes. Nothing will determine a trader’s success more than their ability to survive a string of 10-15 losses in a row.

MASTER YOUR OWN METHOD: Trader know thyself, know who you are, the trading method that fits your personality and risk tolerance and become a master of that method. Do not wander around when it gets tough, be faithful to your edge. Be the best that you can be at what you are whether you are a day trader, trend follower, option trader, momentum trader, chart reader, technical analyst, or fundamentalist. I know of traders that got reach with any of these methods but do not know any that got rich trading multiple methods.  Pick one, master one.

PERSEVERANCE: Even with all the elements in place there will be rough months and even rough years for almost all traders. Sometimes right at the beginning of a new traders first plunge into the market the price action can act completely contrary to profits for that traders method. All the traders that ended up rich have one thing in common, they did not quit trading until they became rich.


STOP TRADING until you can answer YES to all QUESTIONS

  
  Education
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Managing Risk as a trader is the most important consideration and if you answer NO to any of the following questions, then STOP TRADING until you can answer YES to all of them:

  • Do you have a written trading plan that deals with risk management?
  • Have you calculated the risk that you are comfortable with in every trade?
  • Will you not place a trade, even though you have a healthy balance in your trading account, when you know that your risk exposure goes beyond the risk outlined in your trading plan?
  • Have you identified what your maximum position size will be?
  • Do you have a stop in place every time you trade?
  • Are you aware that risk management is not just about where you place your stop?
  • Will you be able to stick to your risk management rules under ALL trading conditions?

There are many ways to manage your risk but until you have a risk management process written into your trading plan and you stick to these risk management rules on EVERY occasion, then you have more work to do until you are on your way to being a successful trader. (more…)

6 ways to think about risk

  
  Education
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1  Risk is not the same as volatility. Assets can be volatile on the upside as well as the downside. Risk should instead be viewed as the permanent loss of purchasing power.

2 A risk should not be evaluated based its frequency. Some risks only have to happen once to be catastrophic.

3 Sophistication and knowledge are not a form of or substitute for risk management.

4 Although following the crowd may feel comfortable, risks are just as catastrophic whether you suffer with company or suffer alone.

5 Bullish consensus manufacturers the greatest risks because nobody is prepared and everyone runs for the exits at the same time. Strong optimistic consensus provides a sense that nothing can go wrong. This is why the greatest catastrophes seem to come out of the blue.

6 Activity, research and analysis provides a false sense of control over the future. However devastating losses rarely due to a lack of brain power or analytical prowess.

Aim Small, Miss Small

  
  Education
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As many of you already know, one of the biggest factors in successful trading is how well you manage the trade – that is the stop-losses you place, the amount of capital that you put to work, where you take profits, and how you protect the profits that you already have. You could, no doubt, write many books on each of these subjects, but for now, I’m going to focus on a small, but critical aspect of risk-management and my inspiration comes from the movie “The Patriot”, which happens to be one of my favorite movies of all time.

In the clip below, Benjamin Martin (the father) asks his two young boys, “What Did I tell ya ‘fellas about shooting?” and they replied, “Aim Small, Miss Small”. Every time I hear those words I tell myself how true they ring across so many spectrums of life. As an avid hunter, if you just aim the gun at the direction of the game you are targeting, you are bound to miss. However, if you pick out a tiny, specific area of the animal, whether its the upper-right side of the chest, or some other smaller area, you have a much better chance of hitting your target. In fact, the smaller the target area, the lesser amount of margin for error you have in missing.

So how does this apply to trading, you must be asking? The stop-loss that we set in relation to our entry price is a reflection of our “Trading-Aim”

When I trade, I look for setups that are as close as possible to a desirable stop-loss. By desirable, that means I’m not just picking a spot that is 1 or 2% from my entry price for the sake of it being so, instead, if I am long, I am going to look to place a stop-loss somewhere underneath a critical support level, and if I am short, then I am going to place a stop just above an area of resistance. So the place that I choose for my stop-loss is that of a strategic area and a point to where I know, that if it hits the stop, I know that my thesis is no longer valid and therefore, I must exit the trade. (more…)

8 Rules For Traders

  
  Education
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  1. Don’t Fight the Tape – the trend is your friend, go with Mo (Momentum that is)
  2. Beware of the Crowd at Extremes – psychology and liquidity are linked, relative relationships revert, valuation = long-term extremes in psychology, general crowd psychology impacts the markets
  3. Rely on Objective Indicators – indicators are not perfect but objectively give you consistency, use observable evidence not theoretical
  4. Be Disciplined – anchor exposure to facts not gut reaction
  5. Practice Risk Management – being right is very difficult…thus, making money needs risk management
  6. Remain Flexible – adapt to changes in data, the environment, and the markets
  7. Money Management Rules – be humble and flexible – be able to turn emotions upside down, let profits run and cut losses short, think in terms of risk including opportunity risk of missing a bull market, buy the rumor and sell the news
  8. Those Who Do Not Study History Are Condemned to Repeat Its Mistakes

You’ll notice that nothing is profound among the 8. You likely have heard some version of each of them before. But when the voices get loud and volatility picks up, it’s nice to have a reminder in what’s important and why we do what we do.

The Trader’s Mindset-ABC

  
  Education
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ABC

In the classic play-adapted movie Glengarry Glenn Ross, the successful big shot from Mitch & Murray is called in to pep talk a group of sad-sack real estate salesmen. His immortal manta for sales success is “ABC.: Always Be Closing.”

The trader’s version of this mantra is slightly different. For us it’s not Always Be Closing, butAlways Be Climbing.

What does it mean to “ABC,” or Always Be Climbing?

It means you always want to be in shooting distance of new equity highs. Not just from a cumulative profits standpoint, but from a knowledge standpoint as well.

Half the reason risk management is so important is to keep you in the mix, with new equity highs either currently being exceeded or not a far distance away. And when market conditions are challenging or sluggish, there’s no better time to book new highs on the knowledge and research side. (Many traders say their best research — and their biggest breakthroughs — were achieved in adverse conditions.)

The Climbing Mindset (more…)

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