Archives of “probabilities” tag

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Gambler’s fallacy

  
  Education
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For a fair coin, the answer sho uld be that both outcomes are equally lik ely.

If you Believed that the next flip is more likely to be tails because “tails is due to come up” this is whats is known as gambler’s fallacy, a great example of availability bias. i.e ” availability bias occurs when our estimates of probabilities are influenced by what is most “available” .

The purpose of the quiz is simple .

As traders assess new information, all observations must be appropriately weighted in prices or estimates of probabilities. If traders are unduly influenced by availability bias, the resulting estimates may not be accurate.  You must at all time in your approach be equally fair, balanced objective and dispassionate while gathering your analysis toward trading .

Characteristics for successful trading

  
  Education
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successfultraders-charctersticsA) absolute trust in myself to do what’s necessary when it’s necessary, B) discipline to follow my rules/method even when it’s going through a rough period (which all methods do), C) the unquestioning belief that I don’t know what’s going to happen next and that trading is just a probabilities game, D) that my success isn’t about the system/method – it’s about me and my attitude toward the market and trading, and E) the complete confidence that I really can make consistent profits from my trading over time.

30 Rules for Traders

  
  Education
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  • Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.
  • Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them.
  • Never trust a person more than the market. People lie, the market does not.
  • Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.
  • Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.
  • Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.
  • Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.
  • Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market.
  • The market is usually efficient and can not be beat. Exploit inefficiencies.
  • To beat the market, you must have an edge. (more…)

Effectiveness Is the Measure of Truth

  
  Education
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In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.

Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss. (more…)

Stop trying to be perfect

  
  Education
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Stop trying to be perfect. Great trading is not about perfection, it’s about probabilities. If you go to a restaurant and order a steak, you don’t need to eat the bone, gristle and fat to enjoy the steak. And you don’t need to sell the top or buy the bottom to make a killing in the market. Just look for the sweet spot and dig into that. If you leave some profits on the table, that’s ok. You’re still going to leave the table feeling confident, in control and with a full stomach.

Trading Rules to become Great Trader

  
  Education
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Time for another list of Trading Rules . Make it a habit to reread these trading rules  every now and then.
TRADINGRULES-1
1. Buying a weak stock is like betting on a slow horse. It is retarded.
2. Stocks are only cheap if they are going higher after you buy them.
3. Never trust a person more than the market. People lie, the market does not.
4. Controlling losers is a must; let your winners run out of control.
5. Simplicity in trading demonstrates wisdom. Complexity is the sign of inexperience.
6. Have loyalty to your family, your dog, your team. Have no loyalty to your stocks.
7. Emotional traders want to give the disciplined their money.
8. Trends have counter trends to shake the weak hands out of the market. (more…)

Forecasting the Market

  
  Education
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Amateurs attempt to make a forecast while professionals manage information to make decisions based on probabilities. Dr. Alexander Elder compares this to a Doctor that received a patient with a knife stabbed in his chest. The family will ask, “will he survive?” and “when can he go home?” But the Doctor is not forecasting, he must prevent the patient from dying, remove the knife, saturate the organs and carefully watch for an infection. He monitors the health trend of the patient and takes measures to prevent any complications. He is managing, not forecasting. To profit in trading you do not need to forecast the future, you need to derive from the market whether the bulls or bears are in control. You need to practice money management techniques for long term survival.

You trade against the sharpest mind in the ocean-like markets. Mental discipline is an undivided part of trading. Please remember the following points:

Understand you are in the market for the long term, that you want to be a trader in even 20 years from now

Develop your trading strategy, either technical or fundamental analysis. If “x” happens then “y “is therefore likely to take place. You may need different tools for trading a bull or a bear market

Develop a money management plan, with the first goal being long term survival. Secondary goal is steady money growth and third goal would be high profits. Successful traders do not concentrate on the profit itself but maintaining successful trades regardless of the earned amount.

Winners feel, think and act different than losers. Look inside yourself, eliminate the illusions and change the way you have been thinking and acting. Changing is hard but could pave the way to becoming a successful trader.

Essentials of a Winning Psychology

  
  Education
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fear-1
Four fears that block a winning psychology:

  1. Fear of Loss
  2. Fear of being wrong
  3. Fear of missing out
  4. Fear of leaving money on the table.

Realize that trading is based on probabilities, as such, every trade is unique. In other words, the past does not equal the future.

Probability thinking manifest other states and beliefs:
  • Because we know that we will succeed in the long run and because we know we will protect ourselves no matter what the market does, we acquire the state of “self trust” and the state of being “carefree”.

In turn these states allow us to remain….

  • Focused, confident and carefree when we are experiencing the inevitable prolonged drawdown.
  • Because at the micro level we know that the market is random, we will not allow euphoria to set in and lead us to reckless trades. Each trade will only be one in a series of probabilities.
  • We will view market information not as a source of pleasure or pain but merely as data providing us with opportunities.

Personal Attributes Essential to a Winning Mentality
  • Awareness – the ability to step outside ourselves and observe. The more effectively we can do this, the easier our progress to “Acceptance”.
  • Honesty – the ability to seek to perceive reality in spite of our filters.
  • Courage – the willingness to bear the pain brought about by our awareness and honesty.
  • Commitment – the willingness to do whatever is necessary to achieve our goals

To succeed, a trader must have a vision about where he is heading, and must internalise that a winning attitude is total submission to the trading outcome.
This means managing Fear and Euphoria. To do this, we need to ACCEPT, with every fibre of our body, the belief that at the micro level the market is uncertain and unpredictable and at the macro level it is relatively certain and predictable.

FEAR

  
  Education
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How to prevent Fear in trading ?

you have decide to trade a particular system. you get an entry signal, and put on the trade. You put in your protective stop, and you know what will be your signal or target for exit. There is nothing more to you need to do or worry about. The market will do the rest for you. You are along for the ride, and you know when to get out. So there is nothing to be fearful about …

“There is hardly anything productive about worry or fear when you cant do anything about the circumstances” by Buzz Aldrin

Fear is an emotion. It is created by us and therefore we can uncreated it. Fear is created when we think that our trade will lose a lot of money or things that will prevent our trade from losing. The keyword is think which is thoughts in our mind. When you keep on thinking of the thoughts of losing money and fearful of it. STOP!! Take a deep breath to break your connection. Then ask yourself, “Is this probable?” Continue to challenge the thought by asking, “What are the probabilities right now?” Then choose to take control of your thoughts and think term of the current probabilities.
Fear will lead you to disaster if you do not know how to release it. Another way to release fear is to have a shower to calm down yourself. (more…)

How To Make Your Own Luck in Trading

  
  Education
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The only place luck has in trading is that you will hopefully be on the right side of unexpected moves due to surprises. In trading you should trade in such a way that good luck will benefit you and bad luck will not destroy you. In my trading luck has little to do with my profits. I trade when the probabilities are on my side based on what the chart is saying about the current action of buyers and sellers in a stock. New traders hoping for luck belong in Las Vegas not the stock market. Trade the trends, play the odds, manage the risk, have faith in yourself that you have the discipline to trade your winning plan.

  1. I do not trade on luck I trade with probabilities being on my side.
  2. I manage my risk carefully so bad luck on one trade does not blow up my trading account.
  3. I trade in the direction of the markets current trend to enable me to stay on the right side of strong moves.
  4. I trade in the direction of the markets current trend so the odds are on my side of being right.
  5. I buy the strongest stocks  and sell short the weakest stocks.
  6. When I am wrong I do not hope for luck I just get out of a losing trade.
  7. When I buy options I buy the in the money options with the odds in my favor not the far out of the money ones that require some luck.
  8. I primarily buy options instead of selling them so I can get big moves for small fees instead of small fees for big risks.
  9. I only risk 1% of my capital per trade so I do not blow up my account with a string of bad trades.
  10. I trade with confidence in my myself and my method not hoping for luck.
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