rss

Power of Probabilities

oddsAndProbabilities-thumbWinning, Losing, Money and Success are just a few of the many aspects of life that people use to determine the worth of others as well as themselves.

In reality, it is not these results, but how we respond to them that will make our journey one that we enjoy and desire to continue doing, or whether we quit.

As a trader, the understanding of probabilities and how to make them work for us instead of against us will provide great power for you as you move forward in your trading career.

Perfectionism

perfect-aTrading is not about perfection. It is about probability and progress. All charts, analyses (fundamental and technical) and trading plans are built on probabilities.

Why then, do so many traders strive for perfection? Why do so many traders miss trades, waiting for exactly the right entry and then beat up on themselves when it doesn’t come and the position runs away while they sit there scratching their heads and condemning themselves?

Why are so many traders trying to turn a game of probability into one of 100% certainty?

The answer lies in one of the cardinal sins of trading which is PERFECTIONISM.

Perfectionism can be a great help to people in many professions, but can be fatal to a trader. Perfectionists, always trying to find the Holy Grail of trading go from one service to another, from one system to another, looking for a way that they can be right all the time. YES! Now, I found it. It’s this trading room, or this service, or this indicator! Wait… something is wrong here. Not all of these trades are working and I have draw downs! How can it be that this particular method failed and I actually had to take a loss? Must be something wrong. I will try harder and look for an even better system, a more expensive service, a new and improved guru, some absolutely no-fail software so that I can have ONLY WINNING TRADES. (more…)

Trading – a game of probability

A big part of trading is a probability game. The market can move any directions and many times against all logic and fundamentals for a period of time. 
An edge in trading is the ability to have winning probabilities on your side.
Most people cannot distinguish between luck and skill when it comes to forecasting the market. At the best, I am right 70% of the time on fundamentals, 50% on the timing of the trade but I am making money on >80% of the trades.
I acknowledge I do not know how to predict the market timing with certainty. The process of trading is replete with errors and thus one has to cater for it.
Apparent randomness in the market is so complex that it cannot be managed with my finite mind. 
So here are some ways that help me to handle the random behaviour of the market: (more…)

Book Review : The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas

 This is one heck of a slow read. Douglas dangles a carrot in front of you each chapter saying ” I will show you how to do this”; but never actually does! I thought there was quite a bit of carry over between this book and “Trading in the Zone”, so by one or the other but on the whole I would say Trading in the Zone would be the one to plump for as there are more trading references. In The Disciplined Trader Douglas does go off on a tangent for many pages and you wonder whether you are reading a book on amateur psychology.

The first 5 Chapters read well with some nice takeaways even in the Intro and Preface. Such as defining Self Confidence as “an absence of fear and self-trust”. I think we all know what he means ny that definition don’t we ?!

Chapters 6 thru to 14 were laboured in my view. Where the depth of Douglas’ attempt to describe the mental state of the trader really was a little abstract at times and to be honest lost me.

For me the best bit of the book was his penultimate chapter on the Steps for Success :

1)Stay focussed on what you need to learn

2)Deal with Losses

  • Predefine the loss at time of trade is vital
  • Execute them immediately on their occurence

3)Become an expect at just one market behaviour

4) Learn how to execute your trading system flawlessly

5) Learn to think in Probabilities

6) Learn to be Objective

  • You feel no Pressure to do anything
  • You have no feelings of fear
  • You have no sense of rejection
  • There is no right or wrong
  • You recognise what the market is telling you and you know what you have to do
  • You can observe the market from the perspective of not being in a position even when you are.
  • You are not focussed on money but the structure of the market

7) Learn to Monitor yourself

So if you can borrow this from a friend, download it as an e-book cheaply or get a 2nd hand one on ebay for the beginning third and last 2 chapters – it’s worth it.

Must Read…….!!

Position Size Can Be More Important Than the Entry Price

Too many traders focus only on the entry price and pay insufficient attention to the size of the position. Trading too large can result in good trades being liquidated at a loss because of fear.

On the other hand, trading larger than normal when the profit potential appears to be much greater than the risk is one of the key ways in which many of the Market Wizards achieve superior returns. Trading smaller, or not at all, for lower probability trades and larger for higher probability trades can even transform a losing strategy into a winning one.

For example, Edward Thorp, who started out devising strategies to win at casino games before achieving an extraordinary return/risk record as a hedge fund manager, discovered that by varying the bet size based on perceived probabilities, he could transform the negative edge in Blackjack into a positive edge. An analogous principal would apply to a trading strategy in which it was possible to identify higher and lower probability trades.

Trading Wisdom – Perfectionism

Trading is not about perfection. It is about probability and progress. All charts, analyses (fundamental and technical) and trading plans are built on probabilities.

Why then, do so many traders strive for perfection? Why do so many traders miss trades, waiting for exactly the right entry and then beat up on themselves when it doesn’t come and the position runs away while they sit there scratching their heads and condemning themselves?

Why are so many traders trying to turn a game of probability into one of 100% certainty?

The answer lies in one of the cardinal sins of trading which is PERFECTIONISM.

Perfectionism can be a great help to people in many professions, but can be fatal to a trader. Perfectionists, always trying to find the Holy Grail of trading go from one service to another, from one system to another, looking for a way that they can be right all the time. YES! Now, I found it. It’s this trading room, or this service, or this indicator! Wait… something is wrong here. Not all of these trades are working and I have draw downs! How can it be that this particular method failed and I actually had to take a loss? Must be something wrong. I will try harder and look for an even better system, a more expensive service, a new and improved guru, some absolutely no-fail software so that I can have ONLY WINNING TRADES.

This is perfectionism in action. Not only does this type of irrational behavior and belief undermine and demoralize a trader, but it takes away all the enjoyment and fun of being in the markets. It leads to depression with depletion of psychic and physical energy, and leaves the perfectionist to confront his basic and overriding fear— fear of failure. In the extreme, it leads to physical and mental illness, including addiction to prescription drugs, alcohol, or illegal substances as well as other addictions. The pain of failure or the haunting fear of failure is simply overwhelming, and one turns to whatever works to medicate the pain.

“Life can be lived forwards, but can only be understood backwards” ~Soren Kierkegaard (more…)

Observation, Experience, Memory and Mathematics

“Observation, experience, memory and mathematics – these are what the successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions may be about man’s unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities – that is, try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass.

“A man can have great mathematical ability and an unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and the memory. And then, like the physician who keeps up with the advances of science, the wise trader never ceases to study general conditions, to keep track of developments everywhere that are likely to affect or influence the course of the various markets. After years of the game it becomes a habit to keep posted. He acts almost automatically. He acquires the invaluable professional attitude that enables him to beat the game – at times! This difference between the professional and the amateur or occasional trader cannot be overemphasized. I find, for instance, that memory and mathematics help me very much. Wall Street makes its money on a mathematical basis. I mean, it makes its money by dealing with facts and figures.” (more…)