Archives of “probabilities” tag

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No Risk Management=Your losses

  
  Education
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“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”
–Larry Hite, Trader

Continuing:

“Life is nothing more than a series of bets and bets are really nothing more than questions and their answers. There is no real difference between, ’should I take another hit on this Blackjack hand?’ and ‘Should I get out of the way of that speeding and wildly careening bus?’ Each shares two universal truths: a set of probabilities of potential outcomes and the singular outcome that takes place. Everyday we place hundreds if not thousands of bets – large and small, some seemingly well considered and others made without a second thought. The vast majority of the latter, life’s little gambles made without any thought, might certainly be trivial. ‘Should I tie my shoes?’ Seems to offer no big risk, nor any big reward. While others, such as the aforementioned ’speeding and wildly careening bus’ would seem to have greater impact on our lives. However, if deciding not to tie your shoes that morning causes you to trip and fall down in the middle of the road when you finally decide to fold your hand and give that careening bus plenty of leeway, well then, in hindsight the trivial has suddenly become paramount.”
–Larry Hite, Trader

Continuing:

“Ancient man had no risk management. Everything was left to ‘fate’ and the whims of the gods. Because ancient man felt that he was merely a victim of circumstance he did not see a need to plan for the future. Therefore, he had no future. In his book Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk, Peter Bernstein plots out the history of man’s discovery of the law of probabilities and risk management. Suffice it to say, economic progress seems to run parallel with man’s ability to discover, quantify, and manage risk. Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin. One is not present without the other. You cannot receive the reward unless you are willing to take the risk and you cannot expect to keep that reward unless you learn to mange that risk. It is imperative to master both subjects if you expect to be successful in any endeavor, especially the arena of investing/trading.”
–Source: Pearce Financial LLC

The only thing you can control as you face the markets each day? Your losses.

Mastering the Art…

  
  Education
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“You have all these people trying to come up with formulas to beat the market. The market is not a science. The science may help increase the probabilities, but to excel you need to master the art of trading.”  
– Mark Minervini, Stock Market Wizards
“After a certain high level of technical skill is achieved, science and art tend to coalesce in aesthetics, plasticity, and form. The greatest scientists are artists as well.”

– Albert Einstein

To achieve trading greatness, one must first become an artist. To become a true artist, one must first master the art.
What does it mean to “master the art” of trading? What kind of nuances and subtleties are involved?  What range of experiences, processes, and deep situational knowledge is required?

Three Tips to Better Handle Losses

  
  Education
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helpful_tips_imageIt is very unlikely that a medication is going to help you feel better about a trading loss. There is no simple fix to the emotional problem of losses. No one likes to lose money, and a loss can be very painful. But, being able to take losses is also a part of the trader’s job description. One of our tasks as traders is to take losses as a routine function of the trading role.

To help make losses more of a routine event rather than an event that throws us into emotional turmoil, here are three key tips to help you better handle losses:

1. Have a trading edge. Define your setups well and be sure they have an edge. By an edge I mean that these setups have a certain probability of winning over a large number of trades. In other words, based on your experience or historical testing, your trade setup should possess a positive expectancy that over, say, 100 trades some percentage (e.g., 67%) will be winners and produce a sufficient profit over loss to make the trade worthwhile. If you don’t have a trading edge, you are likely trading random patterns and you are likely to have many, many losses. (more…)

Observation, Experience, Memory and Mathematics

  
  Education
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“Observation, experience, memory and mathematics – these are what the successful trader must depend on. He must not only observe but remember at all times what he has observed. He cannot bet on the unreasonable or the unexpected, however strong his personal convictions may be about man’s unreasonableness or however certain he may feel that the unexpected happens very frequently. He must bet always on probabilities – that is, try to anticipate them. Years of practice at the game, of constant study, of always remembering, enable the trader to act on the instant when the unexpected happens as well as when the expected comes to pass.

“A man can have great mathematical ability and an unusual power of accurate observation and yet fail in speculation unless he also possesses the experience and the memory. And then, like the physician who keeps up with the advances of science, the wise trader never ceases to study general conditions, to keep track of developments everywhere that are likely to affect or influence the course of the various markets. After years of the game it becomes a habit to keep posted. He acts almost automatically. He acquires the invaluable professional attitude that enables him to beat the game – at times! (more…)

The Probability of Self-awareness

  
  Education
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With 20 years of trying different things and hearing from others I made an important discovery that has shaped me as a trader and a coach.  What I found is that more people will improve using an approach to change that emphasizes expanding self-awareness and emotional intelligence.

(With so many different approaches advertised as a ‘change process’, I think its important to share what I’ve found to work. That’s really what we have to do, right?  Doing more of what works and less of what doesn’t.)

Very briefly, what I mean by expanded self-awareness is:

1) the recognition that our thinking and our emotions are intertwined and both influence our perception and judgment that leads to our decisions and actions (this view also happens to be consistent what the leading brain scientists are now saying)

2) much of our motivation – the intertwined thinking/emotion that drives our behavior – is actually subconscious, e.g. we assume we are trading the market but on other levels we are also trading our P&L and our feelings about our P&L  (and what our P&L represents to us) is just one example. (more…)

Bend your will to focus on the war

  
  Education
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bendyourwill

  • 1) Allow yourself to enjoy the victories. Traders have a tendency to get very upset about busted trades and in so doing burn memories strongly in their minds. The same traders get little satisfaction from the good trades, thus not burning as strong a memory. If you have done your homework, followed your rules, entered and exited the trade as planned, then give yourself credit and enjoy it. You deserve it.  
  • 2) Take control of your beliefs. Successful traders are realistic about trading when accepting the fact that trading is a game of probabilities. Successful traders believe in probabilities and in so doing know that with each trade there is a higher probability the trade will work than not. How do they know this? Because they have tested and traded their set up(s) enough times to know that the odds are in their favor. However, the successful traders also know that favorable odds do not guarantee success 100% of the time. Successful traders believe with each trade that the odds are in their favor but they also believe that the trade will not always work. By knowing this successful traders will be able to enter every trade with a clear mind open to the fact that anything can happen NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED ON THE LAST TRADE! If you believe this then you will never focus on the last trade, only on the present one.

 You cannot live in the past so there is no need to trade in it either.  Just as every day is a new one so is every trade.  Focus on the present battle and in war you will be victorious!!

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