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False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

Risk Management Game

A random person is pulled off the street and given $10,000 to trade.  They have no prior experience which, on the bright side, means they have no bad habits, emotional baggage, or preconceived notions.  Before trading they go through a five day crash course on market basics (order entry process, chart reading, pattern recognition, etc…).  Suppose you are tasked with the responsibility of drafting a set of risk management rules which they are required to abide by.  The objective is to make them survive as long as possible in the trading arena so they can learn as much as possible through first-hand experience.

What types of rules would you set?

The ideal approach of course is to structure a set of rules which makes it as difficult as possible to blow up the account while still leaving them open to accumulating profits.  The goal isn’t so much helping them capture large gains as much as it is helping them survive.  After learning how to survive, then they can modify their approach to being more aggressive and seeking larger gains.

Here are two of my top rules: (more…)

Profitability -Market Timing

How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula: Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability.

“Market timing is the art of making investment decisions using indicators and strategies to observe and determine the direction of prices. Many believe that market timing involves predicting the future, when in reality, the goal of market timing is to participate in periods of price strength and avoid periods of price weakness.? 

Once Kissed, Twice Shy

The markets have a plethora of different structures and associations with numbers. Some examples are:

1. Round numbers

2. Opening & closing times

3. Limits

4. Constantly changing magnitudes and significance placed thereupon (for example there were extended periods last summer when the SPU futures had daily ranges in the mid single digits and now it’s a score (20) per day).

Much work is done splicing and dicing numbers and looking for statistically significant positive expectations based on various past conditionality.

As another part of that, I wonder whether or not the first, or second or third instance of some stimuli is more or less predictive than the other or others.

This has been brought up in my mind by the recent dance of the seven veils of many markets with many round numbers.

As a start, how about this:

1. Is the first break of a round more or less predictive than the second (assuming the market has reversed intermediately)?

2. Are moves of the same magnitude in the same or opposite directions of interest within a given timeframe?

3. More qualitatively, when a market breaks some predefined barrier (a round, a magnitude, a correlation coefficient et al) and subsequently does so again later, is this last move more likely to have the same sign/ opposite sign and will the magnitude be greater or lesser?

5-False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

A lesson on Ego and Risk

ego-riskMost traders drawn to risk management focus on the external “how to” aspect of trading, vs. the inner aspect of emotions and psychology. This is where trouble begins.
• In the school model, one’s self-esteem is tied to being right. Avoiding mistakes, especially public mistakes becomes paramount. But in trading, one can be wrong in most choices and experience regular “outlier” events in the course of trading the markets. Traders must somehow learn that they will miss out or be incorrect regularly and still have a shot at great success. 
• Traders need to have a survival plan. Know when you will get out of a trade before you get in.
• If you don’t take the small loss today, your capital and trading career may not survive tomorrow.
• The most successful traders surrender their egos to not knowing the frequency or magnitude of any trend. They quiet their mind and follow their inner voice.
• Most of the world can’t keep their losses small. Professional traders and investors who’ve been around for decades are usually those who play the best defense

False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part. (more…)

Anil drops ADAG from corporate logo

Anil Ambani has dropped his name from the corporate logo for Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group, set up after the split of the Reliance empire in 2005.

The line ‘Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group’, written under the logo, has made way for the just the company name. It will now on be known as the Reliance Group. The colour of the logo, too, has been changed from light blue to navy blue. And the red coloured arrow of the brand has been transformed to a triangle.

The design change has been done by Singapore-based Bonsey Design.

 

The websites of the group are already showcasing the new identity.

Head (branding) of the group, Sanjay Behl says, “Reliance is a rightful-brand for us. We are just contemporising it”. He says the group is now adding the Reliance master brand focus to Anil Ambani group of companies.

He said the ADAG group’s identity remains, but it will not be the master brand. The difference with the other Reliance, of Mukesh Ambani, is stylistic. While Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance is written in small letters, the ADAG Reliance is in capitals.

Behl said the focus of rebranding is to strengthen the brand identity and de-clutter it. In terms of magnitude, this will be much larger than the last branding exercise the group did in 2006.

The group now works in seven sectors with almost 27 businesses and most of these are consumer-facing ones.

About 250 million people are being contacted by some Reliance business or the other almost on a daily basis.

False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

Three Tips to Better Handle Losses

helpful_tips_imageIt is very unlikely that a medication is going to help you feel better about a trading loss. There is no simple fix to the emotional problem of losses. No one likes to lose money, and a loss can be very painful. But, being able to take losses is also a part of the trader’s job description. One of our tasks as traders is to take losses as a routine function of the trading role.

To help make losses more of a routine event rather than an event that throws us into emotional turmoil, here are three key tips to help you better handle losses:

1. Have a trading edge. Define your setups well and be sure they have an edge. By an edge I mean that these setups have a certain probability of winning over a large number of trades. In other words, based on your experience or historical testing, your trade setup should possess a positive expectancy that over, say, 100 trades some percentage (e.g., 67%) will be winners and produce a sufficient profit over loss to make the trade worthwhile. If you don’t have a trading edge, you are likely trading random patterns and you are likely to have many, many losses. (more…)