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rssThe Hidden Variable in Your Trading Success
Most traders realize that trading involves a lot of psychology. And most traders readily admit that a significant portion of their trading losses, or lack of performance, is due to “psychology”. Although the term ‘psychology’ isn’t always mentioned as an explanation, you can see it easily enough in the following statements ……”I froze just as I was about to pull the trigger”….. ”I hesitated and missed that trade and was so pissed that I got myself into an impulse trade right after”….. “That large loss was not what I wanted, I held it thinking it would come back because last time I bailed out of this type of trade I got stopped out right before it reversed”….. “I was really nervous about losing money again so I got out of my winning trade way before my target”
Those are four common examples of trading psychology issues manifesting in one’s trading. Do you recognize yourself in the above statements?
All four of those statements have in common one thing, fear. Whether it’s the fear of not being perfect, the fear of being wrong, fear of losing money, fear of missing out, the fear of not being approved by others, or some other fear, the common theme is fear. Most trading mistakes are a maladaptive attempt to deal with fear or anxiety.
Emotions like fear and anxiety cannot be eliminated; it is part of the human experience. But how you respond (your behavior, the action you take in response) to anxiety and fear will determine how successful you are as a trader. Some traders recognize this and do something about it; they learn to work with the fear and anxiety to reduce the chance that they’ll continue to fall into the same old behavioral response pattern to fear and anxiety.
Fear will never disappear. Yes, maybe some days you feel more ‘in the zone’ and fear is less of an issue, but most days you’re probably not in the zone; and on those days the fear is unavoidable. Most likely, those are the days when you have your largest losses. The question is, what are YOU going to do to work with the fear? If you cannot eliminate fear, you must learn to work with it, use it to your advantage. Emotions are a form of self-communication; you need to learn what the message is (e.g. If this trade loses I won’t succeed as a trader) in order to begin to learn how to control your actions in response to the fear and anxiety. Your performance will not change until you learn to manage yourself differently when experiencing fear and anxiety.
Warp Speed or Turtle Speed?
A lot of statistics are published about the number of traders that are ’successful’ even though we don’t always receive their definition of successful.
Whether it is 70% or 95% of new traders that are said to lose all of their capital in the first 30-60 days, the real question is WHY??
In almost every case that I hear about when a person states that they quit trading because they lost all of their money in the first 30-60 days so they got discouraged and said that trading was not for them, these individuals attempted to move too fast when they started. They had acquired very little, if any, type of training and then jumped into a live account without any direction or plan.
Anyone who steps into the trading world (or any endeavor) without training to acquire the skills needed to approach the new program is setting themselves up for a very challenging situation and generally more failures than successes.
You can approach a new situation in life at warp speed and take the consequences or at the speed of a turtle and build your skills and experience so as to eventually acquire warp speed movement, but with turtle-like results, which is what the turtle always experienced when he raced the rabbit….. Success!!
19+1 Trading Rules For Traders
1. Forget the news, remember the chart. You’re not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.
2. Buy the first pullback from a new high. Sell the first pullback from a new low. There’s always a crowd that missed the first boat.
3. Buy at support, sell at resistance. Everyone sees the same thing and they’re all just waiting to jump in the pool.
4. Short rallies not selloffs. When markets drop, shorts finally turn a profit and get ready to cover.
5. Don’t buy up into a major moving average or sell down into one. See #3.
6. Don’t chase momentum if you can’t find the exit. Assume the market will reverse the minute you get in. If it’s a long way to the door, you’re in big trouble.
7. Exhaustion gaps get filled. Breakaway and continuation gaps don’t. The old trader’s wisdom is a lie. Trade in the direction of gap support whenever you can. (more…)
Avoid these Mistakes
Don’t trade to trade. Understand that there are 3 positions you can take as a trader: a long position, a short position and a position to NOT be in a position. There will be plenty of trading opportunities that will come along. Don’t give money to the markets simply because you are bored! .
Avoid trading a strategy without having a good understanding of how the strategy works. What is the typical winning percentage? What is the largest drawdown? In general, high winning percentage strategies have smaller average profits per trade. Lower winning percentage strategies might not have as many winners, but when you are a winner, you typically win big. If you expect your strategy to bring big profits without losses, you can also expect a check made out to “REALITY” to come your way any day.
Optimism & Pessimism
Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic. Optimism can be a speculator’s enemy. It feels good and is dangerous for that reason. It produces a clouding of judgment. It can lead you into a venture with no exits. Even when there is an exit, optimism can persuade you not to use it. |
4 More Rules to Trade
1. Average Winners Not Losers. It is not “don’t frown, average down”; it is applying the discipline to cut losers short and adding to winners that separates the successful from the unsuccessful. If you have a winning stock then add to it. If you have a losing stock then get rid of it. 2. Never Let a Winner Turn Into A Loser. Greed is the cause of this mistake. Let the market tell you when to exit a trade, not whether you have a profit or not. “If your trade is acting well, as defined by key indicators, and the market activity is supporting your position, stay in. If not, its go time!” Do not let a good profit vanish into thin air because you want more than the market is willing to give. 3. Never Mix Disciplines. If you day trade then day trade and do not let a day trade turn into a swing trade. If you swing trade do not let your swing trade turn into an investment. Follow the rules based on the discipline of your time frame. 4. Never Try To Trade Back A loser. In other words, each trade is a new one and should not be used to win back money lost in the last trade. Always trade in the present not in the past where too many emotional and psychology factors can affect the current trade. Revenge does not pay in or out of the market. |
India -Deficit fears
Daniel Tenengauzer, co-head of global emerging markets fixed income strategy and economics at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, is not convinced by the buzz surrounding India. ‘Compared to the rest of Asia, India is not the best story.’
‘My problem with the Indian story is fiscal. The government spends a lot of money which has increased the country’s current account deficit. The fiscal deficit for this year is -10.6% – China’s is half of that.’
Learning From Losers
Traders will typically approach a large loss in one of two ways. First is the dumb way, and that is to become a petulant whiner and throw a fit. Next is the more-constructive way, and that is to use the loss as a means of developing as a trader and to “quote” — learn from your mistakes. But there is a third way. And that is to view the loss as the cost of information.
I don’t mean the cost of doing business per se. This is not typically associated with large losses. Small losses, yes. Because to make money you have to lose some along the way, as casinos do every day. And not the cost of tuition where the market charges a fee to school us. No, I mean information.
Instead of asking yourself about where you placed your stops and getting all personal about the whole thing, ask yourself what happened. Why did the market move the way it did? If you haven’t suffered a capital depletion, you are not likely to demand an answer and more likely to throw off the question with a wave of the hand and a shrug. “Who knows, who cares. I only play odds.”
Markets are a beast and if you want to play with them, you’ll have to be careful. Wear protective goggles and gloves. If you want to tame them though, you’ll need to wrestle with them. And sometimes you lose some body parts along the way.
Quotes from Dr Alexander Elder's -Trading for a Living.
Successful trader is a realist.
Unstructured environment of the markets makes it easy to develop fantasies.
Many losers do not know that trading is intellectually fairly simple.
A loser is not undercapitalized, his mind is underdeveloped.
The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth.
Trading is the most dangerous human endeavor, short of war.