Archives of “monetary policy” tag

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RBA cuts cash rate by 25 bps from 1.25% to 1.00%

  
Analysis, Economy
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RBA announces its latest monetary policy decision – 2 July 2019

  • Prior 1.25%
  • Says rate cut will help to make inroads into spare capacity
  • Says rate cut will help achieve progress towards inflation target
  • Says rate cut is to support jobs, bring inflation back in-line with target
  • Says rate cut will help quicken reduction in unemployment
  • Notes that inflation pressures are subdued across the economy
  • Sees underlying inflation at 2% in 2020
  • But expects inflation to pick up, boosted by petrol prices in Q2
  • To adjust policy if needed to support growth, inflation
  • Central scenario for Australian economy remains reasonable
  • Tentative signs of house prices stabilising in Sydney, Melbourne
  • AUD at the lower end of narrow range
More details to come…

Upcoming Week : Cutting to the Quick

  
  Analysis
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Central banks are prepared to take fresh measures to strengthen and extend the business cycle primarily because price pressures are below what their predecessors thought would be acceptable levels. Draghi, speaking for the ECB, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan ratcheted up their concerns, which, even without new initiatives, were sufficient to drive interest rates lower.
There is no real definition of many terms economists throw around like recession or depression.  The “two negative quarters of declining GDP” is not a technical definition but a rule of thumb.  Ironically there weren’t recessions before the Great Depression.  The end of business or credit cycles were called panics and crises.  The use of “recession” appears to have been applied to economies to distinguish the end of the business cycle from the Great Depression.  Neither the US nor Europe seems to be on the verge of an economic contraction.  Given a shrinking population, the Japanese economy can contract, and per capita GDP can still rise.
The Bundesbank warned last week that the German economy may have contracted in Q2, but the eurozone flash composite PMI suggests the region expanded.  Although the composite PMI averaged 51.8 in Q2, following a 51.5 average in Q1, GDP growth maybe half of the 0.4% in recorded in the first three months of the year.
The most important data point for the eurozone next week is the flash CPI reading.  Some may see it as a non-story as headline inflation is expected to remain at 1.2% and the core rate at 0.8%.  Unchanged data is the story.  Draghi was clear: if conditions do not improve, the ECB needs to provide more stimulus.

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Fed’s Bullard and Kashkari make case for rate cut

  
  Analysis
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Slowing growth momentum and the lack of inflationary pressure are fuelling the case among Federal Reserve policymakers that a rate cut may be necessary this year in order to stimulate the economy.

A duo of Fed officials — St Louis Fed president James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari — on Friday cited rising global uncertainty as a reason the US central bank should take immediate action to lower rates.

At its latest policy meeting this week, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-1 to hold rates steady but signalled a strong possibility of cutting them this year.

Mr Bullard, one of the most dovish members of the Fed board, was the lone dissenter. He said on Friday he pushed for a quarter-percentage point cut at the meeting in order to safeguard against weaker growth, tepid inflation and an increasingly volatile environment.

“I believe that lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this time would provide insurance against further declines in expected inflation and a slowing economy subject to elevated downside risks. Even if a sharper-than-expected slowdown does not materialise, a rate cut would help promote a more rapid return of inflation and inflation expectations to target,” he said in a brief statement posted on his bank’s website.

Mr Kashkari, a non-voting member of the FOMC, went even further. In an essay published on Friday, he said he argued at this week’s meeting for a 50 bps cut in order to “re-anchor” inflation expectations. (more…)

CNBC Lowers Bar Again

  
Analysis, Education, Uncategorized, US Market
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BARTIROMOIt’s become something of a custom for CNBC personalities to be silly and/or ignorant, but it’s generally on matters related directly to monetary policy or the markets (except for the Fast Money crew, those guys are cool). It’s rare that any of the CNBC peeps get to flaunt their half-witted chops outside the confines of the network’s rather limited subject matter, but when they do, it’s gold. Such as today, when everyone’s favorite Money Honey displayed a kind of shocking lack of comprehension of what Medicare even is. Pardon the bias, HuffPo never claimed to be objective.

At one point, Bartiromo was critical of the government-managed health care system in the United Kingdom. “How do I know the quality [of health care in the United States] is not going to suffer” with a public option? she asked. (more…)

RBI hikes CRR by 75 bps; repo rates untouched

  
Analysis, Education
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RBI GOVERNER

The Reserve Bank of India, in its Monetary Policy review today has hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent, while holding the repo and reverse repo rates steady in line with market expectations.

The CRR hike will be done in two tranches. The first one will be for 50 bps with effect from February 13, 2010, and the balance 25 bps will be effective from February 27, 2010. Eventually, this will drain out Rs 36,000 crore from the system.

Repo rate is the rate at which the banks can borrow money from RBI in order to avoid scarcity of funds.

The move comes on the back of spiraling inflation. Food inflation touched 17.4 per cent for the week ended 16 January 2010, slightly higher than previous week’s 16.81 per cent. Fuel price index rose to 5.7 per cent while primary articles price index touched 14.66 per cent for the week ended 16 January 2010.

A median forecast released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the pre-policy ‘Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: Third Quarter Review 2009-10’ yesterday raised the economic growth projection to 6.9 per cent from the 6 per cent projected three months ago.

NIFTY Future :In panic low of 4757 was made and now trading at 4801.My Support and expected target was of 4724-4676 in panic.

-Don’t panic @ lower levels.

-If not breaks 4757 & trades above 4812 with volumes will take to 4845-4856 & there after watch unexpected buying upto 4889-4900 level.

Updated at 11:25/29th Dec/Baroda

In Trading :Money is the score card, but the performance engine is love of the game.

  
  Education
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One of the great challenges of trading is that it requires intense and singular concentration on markets, but also an equal focus on one’s performance in those markets.  That combination of market awareness and self-awareness enables traders to make the most of their “edges” in markets while also cultivating fresh sources of edge.
It is interesting that very successful traders usually don’t achieve monetary success and then walk away from markets.  That is because what drives them is not just the outcome, but also the process:  the ongoing challenges of market mastery and self-mastery.  Even after the money has been made, the game retains its appeal.
If your motivation is primarily to make money, you probably won’t get to the point of career success, because the inevitable periods of drawdown will sap whatever drive is present.  When the motivation is mastery, losing periods provide fuel for reflection, learning, and improvement.  

What Ray Dalio and Art Cashin think of the latest market moves

  
Analysis, Education
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Two articles are doing the rounds. The first is a letter from Bridgewater hedge fund titan Ray Dalio, who has long believed the world is in a great deleveraging. He doubles down today and says the next ‘big’ Fed move will be more QE.

Here’s the crux:

the ability of central banks to ease is limited, at a time when the risks are more on the downside than the upside and most people have a dangerous long bias. Said differently, the risks of the world being at or near the end of its long-term debt cycle are significant.

That is what we are most focused on. We believe that is more important than the cyclical influences that the Fed is apparently paying more attention to.

While we don’t know if we have just passed the key turning point, we think that it should now be apparent that the risks of deflationary contractions are increasing relative to the risks of inflationary expansion because of these secular forces. These long-term debt cycle forces are clearly having big effects on China, oil producers, and emerging countries which are overly indebted in dollars and holding a huge amount of dollar assets-at the same time as the world is holding large leveraged long positions.

While, in our opinion, the Fed has over-emphasized the importance of the “cyclical” (i.e., the short-term debt/business cycle) and underweighted the importance of the “secular” (i.e., the long-term debt/supercycle), they will react to what happens. Our risk is that they could be so committed to their highly advertised tightening path that it will be difficult for them to change to a significantly easier path if that should be required.

Next is NYSE floor veteran Art Cashin at UBS. Some of his comments are mute because he talks about the potential for China to cut rates and that’s already taken place. He says to watch high yield closely and Jackson Hole.

Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer will be speaking later this week at the Jackson Hole conference. I think he will be addressing the problem of inflation and that it’s not growing in the pace they want it. That will give the world a hint that the Fed is not quite ready to raise interest rates.

Ray Dalio’s Long-Term Debt Cycle Charts

  
Analysis, Education
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The following speech was delivered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar on Wednesday, October 5, 2016.

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It is both an honor and a very special opportunity for me to be able to address such a large and esteemed group of central bankers at such an interesting time for central bankers. I especially want to thank President Dudley and Vice President Schetzel for inviting me to forthrightly share my perspective as an investor and my unconventional template that I believe sheds some light on the very unconventional circumstances that we face.

It is no longer controversial to say that:

• …this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth

• …the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward

• …the risks are asymmetric to the downside

• …investment returns will be very low going forward, and (more…)

Kiss That V-Shaped Recovery Good-Bye: The U.S. "Worse Than Greece," Says Economist

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, US Market, Video
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There’s been many letters and symbols used over the last year to describe the shape of the U.S. economic recovery.  There’s the strong V-shaped recovery; the square root shaped recovery to connote a strong recovery followed by a period of flat to no growth; and the W-shaped recovery favored by those believing in a double dip recession.

Tech Ticker guest Michael Pento has a new twist on the discussion. Pento, senior market strategist with Delta Global Advisors believes this is a tee-pee shaped recovery with the top of that tee-pee having already formed in the fourth quarter.

Pento is negative on America’s near term economic prospects for three main reasons:  too little bank lending, too few jobs and too much public and private debt. “I’ve never seen a v-shaped recovery occur when commercial bank lending was down 7% year over year.  So, small business are not getting loans to create capital goods and to expand and hire individuals,” he observes.

Exacerbating the problems at home, is what he describes, as a weak economy abroad.  With China looking to clamp down on growth, the EuroZone struggling with its own debt problems, Pento asks, “Where is the growth going to come from in demand from overseas?

When he says “demand” he’s referring not only to products and services but also to our growing debt burden.  As the price of servicing our deficit grows, when the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, Pento is confident others will realize what he already does: the situation in the U.S. is “worse than Greece.”

The way he sees it, there’s a strong potential for a bond and dollar crisis when China starts selling Treasuries.  “Tell me which shape recovery that will yield for the United States?”

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