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Why only 5% Traders earn ?

  
  Education
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“I believe there are a few reasons why only 5% make it.

1. They start in a position to not need to make a living from it. The need for steady money like a weekly paycheck will corrupt your thinking and force you to deviate from your plan of action that was so well thought out prior to the heat of the battle.

2. They do not need the money that they loose. The enormous amounts of money that it requires to learn to daytrade would exceed most people’s lifetime income. What makes the number of successful daytraders so low is that even the few who could make it, dont have enough capital to endure the learning curve.

3. They do not give a flying _uck about anything or anyones opinions of what the market will or might do. The very news and opinions that surround them becomes the mortar for their brick wall of defense that protects their completely independent thinking. (more…)

Taleb's aphorisms

  
  Education
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Just in time for holiday sales Nassim Taleb is back with what The New York Times dubs a “happily provocative new book of aphorisms,” The Bed of Procrustes. If you are among the unwashed who don’t understand the reference, “the Procrustes of Greek mythology was the cruel and ill-advised fool who stretched or shortened people to make them fit his inflexible bed.” It’s easy to understand why Taleb invoked this fool: “we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies, and prepackaged narratives, which, on the occasion, has explosive consequences.”

The book is short and inexpensive. I will undoubtedly succumb and buy it even though it evokes mixed memories of exchanged aphoristic barbs with a titan in his (very different) field. Academic cleverness can easily turn ugly. But then why should the battles for intellectual capital be any different from those for other forms of capital?

Don't Get Trapped

  
  Education
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1) Anchoring trap. The mind gives a disproportionate amount of weight to the first information received on a topic. Keeping an open mind and avoiding premature conclusions is a way to avoid this trap.

2) Status quo trap. Forecasts tend to perpetuate recent observations. If inflation has been high, it is expected to remain high. It is a psychological risk to assume something different. The authors suggest rational analysis within decision-making to avoid falling into this trap.

3) Confirming evidence trap. Individuals give greater weight to information that supports an existing point of view. Being honest to oneself about one’s motives, examining all evidence with equal rigor, and enlisting independent-minded people to argue against you are ways of mitigating this bias.

4) Overconfidence trap. Individuals overestimate the accuracy of their forecasts. Widening the range of expected possible outcomes is one way to mitigate this tendency.

5) Prudence trap. There is a tendency to temper forecasts that appear extreme. If a forecast turns out to be extreme and then wrong, it could be damaging to one’s career. Therefore, sticking to the herd is safer. The authors again suggest widening the range of expected possible forecasts to avoid falling into this trap.

6) Recallability trap. Individuals are overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression on a person’s memory. These events tend to be catastrophic or dramatic. To avoid falling into this trap, individuals should ground their conclusions in objective data rather than emotion or memories.

Probabilities vs. expectations

  
  Education
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I expect to wake up tomorrow morning and not die during the night.

I expect that I will be able to get out of bed and know how to walk to the kitchen.
I expect my car will start.
I expect the other person will stop at the red light.
I expect that I won’t get hit by lightning.
 
Seeing that expectations are what normal everyday life is founded on, is it natural to think that you can expect a stock to trade in a particular direction? Only if you want to become a loser.
The markets and stocks are not everyday life. They have the ability to do anything at any time. The only thing 100% certain is that they are 100% unpredictable.
If you have expectations, it means you have an emotional attachment or interest in an event outcome. Do you expect to make money, have a winning trade, make a right decision? When they happen are you giddy with excitement, gushing to all who will listen that you are so smart. What happens when you are wrong? How about wrong ten times in a row? If you live the highs you will be living the lows. Your expectations will destroy your confidence and thus your account. Your ego will take you back to childhood where you will throw tantrums and stomp your feet looking for a sympathetic ear. “The markets aren’t fair” you say. Well the markets don’t give a shit what your want or when you want it.
Now if instead you trade the probability of a outcome to an event, you can put a wall up between yourself as a person who is on autopilot accepting everyday expectations and you as a successful trader who is ruthless in the execution of your plan. Thinking, trusting and truly believing in probabilities will save the day for you. When you think that “based on my experience, seeing a very similiar situation before, odds are that the near future direction of this stock is this way. However since this event is unrelated in every way to my past memories, I must choose the point at which my decision will be proven wrong and set a protective stop here.”
When you think this way, it doesn’t matter whether you are right or wrong. You are simply carrying out your trading plan based on your experience/edge. Playing the averages. You don’t get hurt by losing trades. You don’t get happy over winning trades. Whatever happens, happens. Being cold and calculating brings you as a trader closer to the machines that are running the show these days. (more…)

Anger

  
  Education
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As traders, fear and greed are the two emotions that we commonly handle in our trading decisions.

But I believe another emotion that we also sometimes experienced would be – anger.

Most traders have learned to be calm and sensible during trading. But there would certainly be times times when we fumed at missing out a fantastic trade, for not buying more contracts of a great trade, or frustrated for committing that same trading blunder again.

We would blame just about anything or anyone when our trading suffered. Somehow we didn’t realize that the anger have originated from us.

I recently read a book called “Zero Limits” co-written by Dr Joe Vitale & Dr Hew Len. The book was quite an eye-opening read. It mentioned that we are the one who are fully responsible for any circumstances which are happening within & around us.

When we encountered another person pouring out his or her frustrations, whether they were meant for us or not, we should accept that we were partly responsible for that happening, since his or her frustrations had come into our lives.

Naturally, we are responsible for our own anger too.

The way to resolve this would be, strange it may sound, is to keep cleansing ourselves by constantly repeating the phrases “I love you”, “I’m sorry”, “Please forgive me” and “Thank you” to ourselves.

According to the book, these are simple but powerful words that we convey to the Divine. We connect to the Divine by expressing our love and gratitude to him. At the same time, we seek the Divine’s forgiveness of our wrong doings.

Saying these 4 phrases will cleanse the memories of greed, fear and anger associated with anything (including trading) as we give in to the Divine to handle the situation for us.

We would experience a peace of mind that the Divine is taking care of us. Another positive outcome of cleansing ourselves is that we are now open to receive the inspirations from the Divine for us to act upon.

I encourage you to read more about this ancient Hawaiian practice called Ho’oponopono from “Zero Limits” to experience this positive feeling.

I hope that in time you will gradually banish your anger not only in your trading but also in other parts of your life.

“I love you”, “I’m sorry”, “Please forgive me”, “Thank you”.

7 Points to Bulid Trading Confidence

  
  Education
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1. Frequently visualize a successful trading process. What goes into good trading for you? Make sure you see the preparation required, the focus you have during the trading day, and the continous learning from both winning and losing trades to keep getting more effective.

2. Increase your level of physical fitness, as this will enhance both your trading alertness and give a boost to your self-image simultaneously. Both of these elements make you a more confidence trader.

3. Make a list of your strengths. Review this list regularly to remind yourself of how successful you really are.

4. Eliminate negative thoughts and memories. When they occur, replace them with positive self-statements (for example, “I create my own luck” or “I have a good written plan of how I will execute my trades”).

5. Have a general strategy going into each trading day. When you prepare the day before, you position yourself to be proactive and gain confidence as you implement your plan. How aware are you of what you’re experiencing in your mind, body and soul at any moment?  You need to set up a monitoring system at the end of each trading day, to summarize what you executed according to your rules and what you did not.  Look for patterns in your behavior, that you can copy if they work for you, or minimize if they are costing you.

6. Create positive body language regardless of the gain or loss on that trading day. The way you act will often influence the way you feel for future trades. The more confident you feel, the more confidence you will show in your trading.

7. Improve on areas of weakness during preparation time and you’ll create more confidence and belief during the trading day. 

Focus on one of these seven tips at a time, until you can build that area as a habit in your routine.  This will service to greatly improve your trading confidence over time.

Bend your will to focus on the war

  
  Education
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bendyourwill

  • 1) Allow yourself to enjoy the victories. Traders have a tendency to get very upset about busted trades and in so doing burn memories strongly in their minds. The same traders get little satisfaction from the good trades, thus not burning as strong a memory. If you have done your homework, followed your rules, entered and exited the trade as planned, then give yourself credit and enjoy it. You deserve it.  
  • 2) Take control of your beliefs. Successful traders are realistic about trading when accepting the fact that trading is a game of probabilities. Successful traders believe in probabilities and in so doing know that with each trade there is a higher probability the trade will work than not. How do they know this? Because they have tested and traded their set up(s) enough times to know that the odds are in their favor. However, the successful traders also know that favorable odds do not guarantee success 100% of the time. Successful traders believe with each trade that the odds are in their favor but they also believe that the trade will not always work. By knowing this successful traders will be able to enter every trade with a clear mind open to the fact that anything can happen NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED ON THE LAST TRADE! If you believe this then you will never focus on the last trade, only on the present one.

 You cannot live in the past so there is no need to trade in it either.  Just as every day is a new one so is every trade.  Focus on the present battle and in war you will be victorious!!

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