Archives of “Li Li (badminton)” tag

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NASDAQ leads the way to the upside. S&P and NASDAQ break 4-day losing streak

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow breaks 3 day slide

The S&P and NASDAQ index broke a 4 day losing streak. The Dow industrial average broke its 3 day losing streak as investors liked Feds Powell comments on the economy is resilient, and the expectations at the Fed would remain on hold for a long period of time.

A look at the final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index rose 34.49 points or 1.05% to 3315.56. It’s high reached 33 to 0.31. The low extended to 3270.95.
  • Nasdaq index rose 184.83 points or 1.71% at 10963.62. Its high reached 10979.64. The low extended to 10737.51
  • Dow rose 140.34 points or 0.52% at 27288.04. It’s high reached 27333.09. The low extended to 26989.93.

Lagarde: There is no need to overreact to euro gains

  
  Analysis
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Comments from Lagarde in the ECB opening statement:

Lagarde Sept 10
  • Says ECB will monitor FX rate
  • Strength of recovery remains surrounded by uncertainty
  • Rebound broadly in line with previous expectations
  • Domestic demand recorded significant recovery
  • Uncertainty weighing on consumer spending and business investment
  • Inflation dampened by energy prices
  • Ample monetary stimulus remains necessary
  • Incoming data suggest notable recovery in consumption
  • ECB will carefully assess the euro’s effect on inflation
  • New infections are a headwind to the short term outlook
  • Repeats that an ample degree of easing needed
  • Fiscal measures should be targeted and temporary
The euro jumped to 1.1891 from 1.1850 on the headline from Lagarde.

Trade Management

  
Analysis, Education
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  • Only exit when stopped at the point where trend reverses.
    • When you sell because you think that it has gone far enough, or the opposing forces are becoming stronger, you are essentially predicting the short-term movement of the price. Nobody can do that successfully. Let the fighting take place and resolve itself.
  • Ignore the immediate momentum, only the structure matters. The
    • Immediate momentum can be clearly down but it is just a temporary rock, it cannot alter the structure / shape of the stream.
    • Let the stream flow its natural course, there will be rocks along the way that attempt to impede the flow, but the flow will continue.
  • If you get stopped out when your stop is at a logical spot and price quickly went back to your entry price, re-enter immediately
    • The re-entry does not require your fresh entry criteria to be satisfied.
    • This is for the situation where there is a shake out that is quickly repelled.
    • The stop for the re-entry would be your original stop. In the case of a long, the first violation of your stop made a lower low. After you re-enter, if price hits your original stop again, it would have meant that price went up, made a lower high, came back down and hit your stop. So you would have a lower low and a lower high — a trend reversal, so you should not be holding your long position. Reverse for a short. By right it would also mean that after you re-entered, and you see a lower high forming, it is also time to get out of the position even before the initial stop gets hit.
  • If you get stopped out when your stop is at a breakeven level, you re-enter immediately if the logical spot level holds
    • In this case the re-entry price need not be the same price as the stopped out price, since the stopped out price was at the same level as the previous entry. Just apply the usual entry rules.
  • Re-enter immediately if you get shaken out (i.e. you manually exited your position because you fear the position going against you) by immediate momentum
    • If you are shaken out by immediate momentum, you have just made a trading mistake. Get back in immediately.
  • Support and resistance still needs to be obeyed (including major levels such as VWAP, day high, day low, prior day close). If a level is acting as it should, follow it.
    • E.g. if trend is down, you get to an area near a support level, tighten your stop to a momentum stop. Once your stop gets hit, place a re-entry stop order at the spot where it shows your countertrend exit is wrong.
    • A support is not a reason for going long in a downtrend. In a downtrend, a support means you should get flat, and wait for the support to be broken to get back in.
    • A resistance is not a reason for going short in an uptrend. In an uptrend, a resistance means you should get flat, and wait for the resistance to be broken to get back in.
  • If you end up getting out too early, stop chasing, wait for the pullback, be satisfied with the bit that you got because it is too risky to chase further.

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine – study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in trial participant

  
  Analysis
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The Phase 3 study testing the AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford COVID-19 vaccine has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom.

Spokesperson for AstraZeneca
  • standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data
  • “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.”
Risk negative, but so far little response. Eyes on the tech rout still. Globex equity index future trade reopens at the top of this hour.
coronavirus

European shares and the day with solid gains

  
  Analysis
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German Dax up 1.9%. UK FTSE 100 up 2.3%

The major European indices are ending the day with solid gains led by the UK’s FTSE 100.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +1.9%
  • France’s CAC, +1.7%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +2.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.5%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.8%

In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the day mixed results. The UK and Spain yields are down marginally while Germany, France, Italy are marginally higher.

Brexit – UK says not afraid to walk away from talks. Less than 20% chance of a deal.

  
Analysis, Forex
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A couple of UK media items on Sunday with Brexit developments.

The UK’s chief Brexit negotiator David Frost spoke with the newspaper the Mail on Sunday
He said that the UK would leave the transition arrangement “come what may” in December. That is, deal or no deal the UK is out.
Meanwhile in the Sunday Times:
  • planning for no-deal has ramped up
  • senior figures in government have predicted that the chance of securing a Brexit trade agreement with Brussels is now less than 20%
Links for each (may be gated) if you’d like more
GBP is trading on wide spreads in early movement. Its just before:
  • 8 am in NZ
  • 6 am in Sydney
  • 5 am in Tokyo
  • and 4 am in Singapore & Hong Kong
If you are familiar with how forex market times work you’ll know that liquidity right now Is super thin. GBP swinging a little:
A couple of UK media items on Sunday with Brexit developments.

Do Not Override Your System During the Trading Day

  
Analysis, Education
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  • You should try to express your enthusiasm and ingenuity by doing research at night, not by overriding your system during the day.
  • Overriding is something you should do only in unexpected circumstances – and then only with great forethought. If you find yourself overriding routinely, it’s a sure sign that there’s something that you want in the system that hasn’t been included.
  • You can be creative in research but don’t trade creatively; in other words, stick to your systems.
  • If your trading system is inadequate, you shouldn’t use it. If your system is good, then stick to it faithfully.
  • In the meantime search vigorously for improvement. When the new system is ready you can change to it – you are not thereby failing to stick to your system. So there need be no conflict between persistence and change.

US stocks tumble. Major indices have worst day since June (for S&P and Dow) and March (for Nasdaq)

  
Analysis, US Market
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Dow Jones falls -1025 points at its lows

The major indices are closing sharply lower. The major indices declines were the sharpest since June for the S&P and Dow.

For the NASDAQ, you have to go all the way back to March to have a worse trading day.

The Dow industrial average is now back negative in 2020. The declines snaps the S&P and NASDAQ 4 day winning streak. All 11 sectors of the S&P closed lower.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell 125.92 points or -3.52% at 3454.92. S&P index fell -4.28% at its lows
  • The NASDAQ index fell -598.34 points or -4.96% at 11,458.16. NASDAQ index fell -5.77% its lows
  • The Dow fell -808.50 points or -2.78% at 28292.33. Dow industrial average fell -3.52% at its lows

Sunday Times reports the UK “plans for a £30bn tax raid on the wealthy”

  
  Analysis
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Monday 31 August 2020 is a holiday in the UK, a good time for getting this sort of bad news dribbling out.

UK press with the report,
  • Chancellor Rishi Sunak has his Treasury officials drawing up plans for a £30bn tax raid on the wealthy, businesses, pensions and foreign aid
  • proposals would be part of the budget in November
  • planning to raise capital gains tax
  • and corporation tax (from 19% to 24%)

UK Times link is here (may be gated).

ps. Reuters report here is ungated

Monday 31 August 2020 is a holiday in the UK, a good time for getting this sort of bad news dribbling out.

31 Best Quotes on Investing

  
Analysis, Education
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– Warren Buffett

warren buffett

  1. “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
  2. “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No.1”
  3. “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.”
  4. “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
  5. “In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”
  6. “Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.”
  7. “Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.”
  8. “The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything.”
  9. “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
  10. “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”
  11. “I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors, be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”

 

– Philip Fisher

philip fisher

  1. “Conservative investor sleep well.”
  2. “The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.”

 

– Benjamin Graham

  1. “Buy not on optimism, but on arithmetic.”
  2. “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.”
  3. “If you are shopping for common stocks, choose them the way you would buy groceries, not the way you would buy perfume.”
  4. The underlying principles of sound investment should not alter from decade to decade, but the application of these principles must be adapted to significant changes in the financial mechanisms and climate.”

 

– Charlie Munger

  1. “Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” – Charlie Munger
  2. “Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.”
  3. “No wise pilot, no matter how great his talent and experience, fails to use his checklist.” – Charlie Munger Peter

– Peter Lynch

peter lynch

  1. “Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.”
  2. “Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket… it’s part ownership of a business.”
  3. “If you’re prepared to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, and quickly enough so the fifth grader won’t get bored.”
  4. “Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.”
  5. “If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.”

 

– A few Other Best Quotes on Investing

  1. “Minimizing downside risk while maximizing the upside is a powerful concept.” – Mohnish Pabrai
  2. “The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something – and then pay a lot less.” Joel Greenblatt
  3. “Every once in a while, the market does something so stupid it takes your breath away.” – Jim Cramer
  4. “While it might seem that anyone can be a value investor, the essential characteristics of this type of investor-patience, discipline, and risk aversion-may well be genetically determined.” -Seth Klarman
  5. “Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas.” – Paul Samuelson
  6. “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’” – Sir John Templeton
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