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CFTC commitment of traders: EUR longs increase to 200K (all time largest long position).

Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

  • EUR long 200K vs 180K long last week. Longs increased by 20K
  • GBP short 3K vs 15K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
  • JPY long 27K vs 31K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K
  • CHF long 17K vs 12K long last week. Longs increase by 5K
  • AUD short 1K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
  • NZD 0K vs 1K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
  • CAD short 30k vs 23K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K

Highlights:

  • EUR longs continue to rise and are at new record long position at 200K. The largest short position all time is at -227K
  • GBP position has been whittled down to near unchanged after being short by 36K at the beginning of June 2020
  • AUD and NZD speculative positions are near unchanged
  • CAD shorts are the more or less, the only short currency position (long USD position).
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC

US weekly initial jobless claims 963K vs 1100K expected

Claims fall below 1 million

weekly initial jobless claims
  • Prior was 1186K (revised to 1191K)
  • Continuing claims 15486K vs 15800K expected
  • Prior continuing claims 16090K
  • PUA claims 489K vs 656K prior
  • Full report
The total number of people claiming benefits for all programs was 28,257,995, down 3065K from the prior week.
This was the first time initial jobless claims were below 1 million in 21 weeks.

Here’s what it’ll take for gold (and silver) to climb to new highs ($2100, $30)

  • Real rates are now rising along with nominal yields due to stimulus optimism and risk appetite, with the USD also off its lows. 
  • Given that the US economy will continue to positively respond to an additional trillion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus and continued Fed measures, it is quite likely that rates and the dollar may see some better days into 2020
  • This, along with profit-taking by the very active retail investors and COMEX margin increases should see gold consolidate lower.
  • Before … new highs ($2,100+, $30+), there will need to be confirmation that the Fed will indeed suppress yields, consider average inflation targeting and there are signs that inflation may move higher
  • At the same time, markets will want to see if monetization of debt is in the cards, before talk of these levels becoming sustained is credible. 
  • TD securities projects an average gold price of $2,100/oz in Q4-2021 and $30/oz silver price during the same period

European shares rise. German Dax (major indices) up for the 4th consecutive day

Run to the upside continues

The European shares are closing higher for the day. The German DAX, France’s CAC, UK FTSE 100 has now moved higher for 4 consecutive days.
A look at the provisional closes shows:
  • German DAX, +1%
  • France’s CAC, +1%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +2.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.0%

As London/European traders look to exit, the CHF remains the strongest. The JPY has taken over as the weakest of the majors.  The USD has moved lower in the NY session (compared to opening levels). It is now mostly lower with declines vs. the CHF, EUR, CAD, AUD and NZD and gains only vs the JPY. It is back to unchanged vs the GBP after being higher vs the pound at the start of the day.

DOE crude oil inventories -4512K vs -2200K estimate

Crude oil inventories

  • crude oil inventories draw of 4512K vs. draw of 2200K estimate. Last week draw 7373K
  • gasoline inventories draw of -722K vs. draw of -400K estimate. Last week saw a build of 419K
  • distillates a draw of 2322K vs. a  build estimate of 1000K. Last week saw a build of 1591K
  • Cushing build of 1336K vs a build of 532K last week
  • Crude oil is currently trading at $42.53, up $0.93 or 2.17%
The private data last night showed:
  • Crude -4400K
  • Gasoline -1310K

China reaffirms that US’ TikTok ban has nothing to do with national security

Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry

US China
  • Beijing has been ‘consistent’ on trade deal
  • Declines to comment on further trade specifics
  • Says position on US sanctions is clear and consistent
  • Says US sanctions are irrational, groundless
  • Reiterates opposition towards ties between US and Taiwan
There’s nothing really new here as this has been China’s stance all along but it does reaffirm expectations that both sides have a lot more than just the Phase One trade deal to discuss if they were to meet later this week.

European shares end the session with solid gains

Major indices up sharply

The flow funds into the European markets continue today with sharp moves to the upside in the major indices. A look at the provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, +2.1%
  • France’s CAC, +2.4%
  • UK’s FTSE 100,
  • Spain’s Ibex +2.8%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +2.8%
For the year, the European shares are still down sharply:
  • German Dax -2.2%
  • France’s CAC, -15.9%
  • UKs FTSE -18.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -24%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -14.05%

Russia president Putin says have approved first Russian-produced coronavirus vaccine

Putin says that his daughter has been vaccinated from the coronavirus

Putin
  • Says that Russian health ministry has approved coronavirus vaccine developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute
  • Says hopes Russia will start mass production of coronavirus vaccine
Take what you will and believe what you want from the headlines above, but this may lay the groundwork for other countries to start prepping their own “breakthroughs” sooner rather than later. As with everything related to the pandemic thus far, all it takes is for one country to set a precedent and the others will take that as an opportunity to follow.

Dow closes at the highest level since February 24, and just 2.6% from unchanged on the year

Dow and S&P are up for the 7 days in a row

The Dow industrial average led the way for stocks to the upside with a 1.3% gain.

  • The Dow index close at the highest level since February 24th and is just 2.6% from unchanged on the year.
  • Both the Dow and S&P have closed higher for 7 consecutive days.
  • The S&P index is the longest winning streak since April 2019.
  • The Dow’s winning streak is the longest since September 2019.
  • The S&P is less than 1% away from an all-time high close
  • The NASDAQ index closed lower on the day and is on a 2 day losing streak.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index up 9.21 points or 0.27% at 3360.49. The high price reached 3363.29. The low price extended to 3335.44
  • NASDAQ index fell 42.67 points or -0.39% to 10968.35. The high was up at 11,040.25 while the low extended to 10,849.46
  • the Dow industrial average rose 357.96 points or 1.3% to 27791.44. The high price reached 27803.86. The low price extended to 27488.21.
The biggest winners in the Dow included:
  • Boeing, +5.52%
  • Caterpillar, +5.26%
  • Raytheon technologies, +4.87%
  • Nike, +3.48%
  • Chevron, +3.41%
Biggest losers in the Dow included:
  • Microsoft, -1.95%
  • Disney, -0.89%
  • J&J, -0.44%
  • McDonald’s, -0.22%
  • Coca-Cola, -0.17%
Other winners today included:
  • US steel, +11.67%
  • Wynn Resorts, +9.95%
  • United Airlines, +9.35%
  • FedEx, +8.89%
  • Delta Air Lines, +7.95%
  • Alcoa, +6.17%
  • Southwest Airlines +5.14%

European shares end the session higher

German DAX near unchanged in up and down session

The major European stock indices are ending the session flat or higher. The German DAX was the weakest as it closes near flat for the day. Spain’s Ibex is the strongest with a gain of near 1.4%.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, unchanged
  • France’s CAC, +0.3%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.5%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the session lower.