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US major indices close session mixed

S&P and Dow and the lower. NASDAQ index close higher ahead of key earnings

The major indices close mixed ahead of the key earnings from Apple, Amazon, alphabet and Facebook

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index fell -12.22 points or -0.3% to 3246.22
  • NASDAQ index rose +44.87 points or 0.43% to 10,587.81
  • Dow industrial average fell -225.92 points or -0.5% to 26,313.65

More info on that Russian COVID-19 vaccine: 30 million doses in Russia by end of year and 170 million worldwide

The Russian vaccine speculation is not new, but here is more on it if you need.

Head of its sovereign wealth fund Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which is financing the country’s vaccine research:
  • Russia aims to secure approval for the first Covid-19 vaccine in the first two weeks of August
  • expects to produce 30 million doses in Russia by end of year and 170 million worldwide
The Russian vaccine speculation is not new, but here is more on it if you need.

US weekly oil inventories -10611K vs +450K expected

Weekly US oil inventory data

  • Prior oil was +4892K
  • Gasoline +654K vs -2000K expected
  • Distillates +503K vs +1000K exp
  • Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.5% exp
  • Production 11.1 mbpd vs 11.1 prior
API data from late yesterday:
  • Crude -6829K
  • Cushing +1144K
  • Gasoline +1083K
  • Distillates +187K
Oil prices rose about 15 cents on the headlines. That’s the largest draw of the year and it’s entirely due to a 10462K draw at PADD 3, which is on the gulf coast.
In terms of oil, one thing to watch is a potential tropical cycle in the mid-atlantic. It’s on a track that could hit the gulf and Florida.
Florida

US dollar catches an early bid on Fed day

USD/JPY pops

Short-term speculators are no-doubt short the US dollar so some position squaring early today into the FOMC decision make sense. We’re also closing in on month-end so flow driven trades are going to be a factor.
The Fed decision is at 1800 GMT with Powell 30 minutes later. I’ll be looking for commentary on the economy as the top market mover. If it’s negative, the Fed will have to offer more strong hints at easing to keep the equity babies bulls at bay.
Other economic data today is a mish-mash of second tier data including:
  • US trade balance (advance goods)
  • Wholesale inventories
  • Pending home sales
  • Weekly oil inventories.

US stocks end the day near session lows.

A soft ending to the stock day

 The US stocks are ending the day just off the lows for the day. The NASDAQ index by the way with a -1.27% decline.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -20.97 points or -0.61% at 3218.44.
  • NASDAQ index fell -134.17 points or -1.27% at 10402.09
  • Dow industrial average fell by -205.49 points or -0.77% at 26379.28
After the close Starbucks is reporting a less than expected loss and a sales beat. They also expect the 4th quarter to show a significant rebound. Earnings-per-share came in at $-0.46 vs. $-0.59 expectations. The revenues also be at $4.2 billion vs. $4.06 billion estimate.
Amgen earnings and revenues came in better-than-expected. However after an early rise, the price is currently trading lower in after hour trading.  Earnings-per-share came in at $4.25 I was higher than the $3 and 84 expected. Revenues grew by $6.21 billion vs. expectations of $6.18 billion.
These earnings-per-share came in a little bit better at $1.07 vs. $1.03 expectations. Revenues were little light however at $4.8 billion vs. $4.82 billion expected
Ebay earnings came and at $1.08 vs. $1.06 expectations. They also raised their year end outlook

Florida coronavirus cases rise 9243. Deaths hit record

The latest data from Florida

  • Cases rise 2.1% vs 2.6% prior
  • Cases 9243 vs 8886 yesterday
  • Median age 42 vs 43 yesterday
  • Positivity 11.69% vs 11.37% yesterday
  • Deaths hit record 186
  • Hospitalizations down 75 in past 24 hours
Positivity has been trending lower in part because of better reporting, but the trend has been higher in the median age (yesterday was a peak). With more elderly people getting it, a rise in deaths isn’t a surprise.

Traps and Pitfalls:

  1. Bad Markets – A good pattern won’t bail you out of a bad market, so move to the sidelines when conflict and indecision take hold of the tape. Your long-term survival depends on effective trade management. The bottom line: don’t trade when you can’t measure your risk, and stand aside when you can’t find your edge.
  2. Bad Timing – It’s easy to be right but still lose money. Financial instruments are forced to negotiate a minefield of conflicting trends, each dependent on different time frames. Your positions need to align with the majority of these cycles in order to capture the profits visualized in your trade analysis.
  3. Bad Trades – There are a lot of stinkers out there, vying for your attention, so look for perfect convergence before risking capital on a questionable play, and then get out at the first sign of danger. It’s easy to go brain dead and step into a weak-handed position that makes absolutely no sense, whether it moves in your favor or not. The bottom line: it’s never too late to get out of a stupid trade.
  4. Bad Stops – Poor stops will shake you out of good positions. Stops do their best work when placed outside the market noise, while keeping risk to a minimum. Many traders believe professionals hit their stops because they have inside knowledge, but the truth is less mysterious. Most of us stick them in the same old places.
  5. Bad Action – Modern markets try to burn everyone before they launch definable trends. These shakeouts occur because most traders play popular strategies that have been deconstructed by market professionals. In a sense, the buy and sell signals found in TA books are turned against the naïve folks using them.

US treasury auctions off $49 billion of 5 year notes at 0.288%

WI at auction time was at 0.281%

  • High yield 0.288%
  • Bid to cover 2.32 xvs. six-month average of 2.49x
  • Dealers 29.55%vs. six-month average of 27.2%
  • Directs 12.3% vs. six-month average of 14.7%
  • Indirects 58.1% vs. six-month average of 51.9%
  • Tail 0.7 basis points
The $49 billion of 5 year note auction came in at 0.288%. That was 0.7 basis points above the WI auction level of 0.281%.
The bid to cover was lower than the six-month average. Dealers were saddled with more than the six-month average. Overall the auction is a C-.

Key economic releases and events for next week’s trading

Big week for stock earnings. Advance GDP to be released

In addition to a slew of big-name earnings including Apple, Amazon, Google the key economic releases and events for next week include:

Monday, July 27
  • US durable goods, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
Tuesday, July 28
  • RBA assistant governor can’t speaks at 8 PM ET, Monday/0030 GMT
  • Spanish unemployment rate, 3 AM ET/0700 GMT
  • US consumer confidence, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
Wednesday, July 29
  • Australia CPI QoQ, 9:30 PM ET Tuesday/0130 GMT
  • US pending home sales, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • FOMC decision and statement, 2 PM ET/1800 GMT
  • FOMC press conference, 2:30 PM ET/1830 GMT
Thursday, July 30
  • German preliminary GDP quarter on quarter, 4 AM ET/0 800 GMT
  • US advance GDP for the 2nd quarter annualized, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • US initial claims for unemployment, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
Friday, July 31
  • China manufacturing PMI, 9 PM ET Thursday/0100 GMT
  • Canada GDP, 8:30 AM ET/12:30 GMT
  • US core PCE price index 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • Chicago purchasing managers index, 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment revised, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT

In addition, the US coronavirus relief package will continue to be worked out between Republicans and Democrats.