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Trading Strategy for Nifty Future -11th March’10

There are typically three stages an investor goes through before they become successful. Building discipline starts with an understanding of these points:

  1. Easy Money: The first stage involves thinking there is easy money to be made. This is the thinking of a newbie. Often, after a big stock tip gone wrong or a couple great broker recommendations that lose serious money, you enter the second stage.
  2. I need a plan: The second stage begins when an investor or trader decides a plan is needed to win. The problems begin when the search for a plan becomes a search for the Holy Grail. And we all know there is no Holy Grail. What is needed is more than just a “system”. What is needed is you following the system. This leads to stage three.
  3. I’m responsible for my success: Stage three comes when the investor or trader realizes that success comes from inside the person, not outside. To achieve true success you must understand the market is not responsible, you are. There is no one to blame or compliment but yourself when it comes to trading. So find a solid plan and follow it.

5144 & 5184 are Hurdles.

From last two days if u had seen (Iam writing not in Braille )3&7 DEMA will act as support levels.

*From last two days kissing 3 DEMA and taking sharp U-turn.

Now crucial support at 5106 ,5090 level.If breaks 5090 with volumes will take to 5058-5036 level.

*Hurdle at 5148-5161.Crossover will take to 5190-5200 in Intraday trade.

*Higher it is moving…More Dangerous sign.

-Trade with eye open

-Always read twice the levels mentioned.

I will update more During trading hrs to our SUBSCIBERS.

Updated at 7:57/11th March/Baroda

Buffett builds Munich Re stake

Munich_ReWarren Buffett, the US investor, has expanded his reinsurance holdings by becoming one of the largest shareholders in industry giant Munich Re. Buffett has built a stake worth €660m ($934m) in the German reinsurer, according to a market announcement triggered when his stake rose above 3%. It makes him the second-largest investor in Munich Re, after US asset manager BlackRock with almost 4.6%.

DENNIS GARTMAN :On Being Wrong

-Don’t miss to Read…………………..!!

“If I’ve learned one thing in 35 years of doing this. I’ve learned this and I’ve learned it the hardest of all ways. Because I made the decision one time to do the wrong thing. I learned this. Whatever you do don’t ever, ever, ever, not never, not ever, under any circumstance, any time ever. Am I clear? Add to a losing trade. Never, ever, ever. Why would you ever add to a losing trade? The market, which is the sum total of the wisdom, and perhaps the stupidly, but predominately the wisdom the sum total of the wisdom of the market is telling you are wrong. How dare you argue with the market? How dare you stand up? What sense of hubris must that take on your part to tell the rest of the world that you’re wrong and I’m right. Because that’s what you’re doing when you’re adding to a losing position. Don’t do that. I will tell you. I did that one time. I lost my wife [first wife]to a margin call. I did, in fact, that did happen…November 11, 1983.”  Wives get very upset “when you come home and say, ‘Sweetheart, I lost the house today’”.

“I will tell you I am good at trading. I am good at investing. I am good at making decisions. I am good at admitting mistakes and that’s my best trait. I am really, really good at admitting mistakes. And that’s to me the most important attribute that an investor, that a trader, that somebody who’s trying to make a living matching wits in the market can have is the ability to admit that they are wrong. That trumps all other concerns. Education doesn’t seem to have that much viability to me. It’s the ability to say I’m wrong.”

“The great ones, the really great traders, I’m sorry, don’t average down. They average up on winning positions. They average up on winning long side trades. Why? Because the market is telling you that you are right. Why would you not do more of something when the market is telling you that you are right? Why do most of us constantly do the opposite? Why do most of us try to understand some fundamental about some stock that we like, some industry that we like, some corporation that we like and you understand the fundamentals of it and you like the underlying fundamentals of the industry that it’s in. You like the long term fundamentals of the US economy and you buy some of it at 25 and it immediately goes to 20. It’s not a better buy at 20. It’s a worst buy at 20 because somebody knows something that you don’t know. That’s the hardest thing for all of us to learn. I’m good at trading and I’m wrong most of the time.”

“I’m good at trading and I’m wrong alot according to my wife. When we got married, we sat down the first year and she said you know this is really very sad. You had a good year at trading. You made us a very nice living this year but Dennis you were wrong 53% of the time this year. I thought this was terribly harsh. You couldn’t even beat a coin toss. I got out of it by saying, Sweetheart I’m so in love with you that it’s colored my ability to think. She bought it. I got another year. We sat down the second year. She said, my wife the accountant, one plus two equals three. She said this is really very sad. You made more money trading this year then you made the previous year. But this year you were wrong 57% of the time. And people pay you for your ideas. And I’m standing by the notion last year that I told you. You can’t even beat a coin toss. You need to do better. Sweetheart I’m trying.  Third year we sat down. My wife, the accountant, one plus two equals three. She said this is sad. You made more money than you made the previous two years. That’s lovely. I want to stay with you. But Dennis, you were wrong 68% of the time this year. Almost 7 out of 10 of your trades lost money. You have got to do better. I told her Laura I’m trying. I’m gonna try. Fourth year we sat down. My wife, the accountant, one plus two equals three. She said, you know, I get it now. You had the best year you ever had. Made more money this year then you made the previous three years. That’s lovely. This year you were wrong 81% of the time. I think if you can just be wrong 95% of the time. We’re gonna get stinkin’ rich. I think I can do it. I think I have it in my grasp to be wrong.”

“The important notion here being – when you’re wrong, admit it. I try to tell to tell people that in the business of handling money, whether it’s in the business of playing poker, whether it’s in the business of trading, whether it’s in the business of investing, you have two types of capital with which you get to deploy: that which is in your account and mental capital. And I don’t have must mental capital. I’ve lost most of mine. You lose mental capital when you are holding on to losing trades and worst when you’re adding to losing trades. The fact that you are losing money is inconsequential what’s really worst is you are hemorrhaging mental capital. You’re there defending that losing trade. You’re hanging onto that losing position and you’re not going out and deploying what should be excellent mental capital.  You should be using that mental capital to go find other positions. To go put on other trades. To go make other investments. It’s a wonderful experience when you take off that losing trade and get rid of it. It’s liberating. I get liberated 20 times a day. It’s a lovely thing. It’s astonishing how many mistakes I make. So the most important thing I want to get across today, tonight, and for your future and what separates the really great investors from the mediocre and the mediocre from the losers is that the losers always go out in exactly the same way…badly.”

The worst degree a trader can have is in economics and the best one is a liberal arts degree preferably “in psychology” or even religion because  “at any one time, down on the floor the background that seemed to have the most viability was religion. Because there would be 50 people saying ‘Oh good God just let this thing come back and I will never do that again.’ The problem is we are all sinners in the hands of an angry God with a very large margin account and more often than not he’s trying to wreak havoc upon you.”

Gartman’s corollary to “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” is “the markets will return to rationality the moment you have been rendered insolvent.”

On Shakespeare:  “You’ll be better trained to deal with the uncertainties that exist in the market and to understand why Hamlet waited so long after finding out that it was his father-in-law that had killed his own father. He had the proof, he knew it was there. And yet the entire play of Hamlet is Hamlet delaying, and delaying and delaying and not acting. That’s what Hamlet is all about. It’s about the inability to make a decision. That’s what trading is all about. It is about the ability to make a decision. Hamlet would have been a terrible trader. Or why did Lear split his kingdom into three parts? What was he thinking? He would have made a terrible trader.”

Here is what the markets are all about:  “The study of human begins dealing with the rational and the irrational. Dealing with rational numbers in an irrational environment. Dealing with irrational numbers in a rational environment. Dealing with irrational numbers in an irrational environment. And trying to make sense out of the chaos. Trying to bring order to the chaos.”

Emotional Satisfaction

TeachingWilliam Eckhardt once said that “If you’re playing for emotional satisfaction, you’re bound to lose, because what feels good is often the wrong thing to do.” If any trade makes you feel like “kicking yourself,” then you’re likely trading for emotional satisfaction and that’s a problem. In other words, if every trade you make has the purpose of trying to make you feel good, prove you are right, feed your ego, eliminate pain from a prior mistake you refused to deal with early on, or something other than just making money for you, you need to learn how to put trading in the proper frame of mind if you desire to become a better trader and investor.

Effectiveness Is the Measure of Truth

In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.

Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss. (more…)

Trading Psychology

TRADING-PSYCHOLOGYIf any trade makes you feel like “kicking yourself,” then you’re likely trading for emotional satisfaction and that’s a problem. In other words, if every trade you make has the purpose of trying to make you feel good, prove you are right, feed your ego, eliminate pain from a prior mistake you refused to deal with early on, or something other than just making money for you, you need to learn how to put trading in the proper frame of mind if you desire to become a better trader and investor.

William Bernstein: There Are Two Kinds Of Investors

There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”

William Bernstein

Focus & Discipline

The stock market is always one step ahead of you. The sooner you accept this fact, the better for your trading results. It helps to think of the market like the rabbit on the rail at the greyhound racetrack. As an investor, you should never mistake yourself for the rabbit or else the market will have to humble you and remind you that you are just a dog. The best you can expect to be is a greyhound in close pursuit, tethered to this market rabbit by an invisible rope. The fact is that the market rabbit is not really in the race. You are racing your fellow greyhounds. They are the ones whom you want to stay out in front of.

The questions you should ask are twofold. The first question is how to stay tethered to this rabbit. The second question is how closely tethered you actually want to be. Candidly answering the first may result in your answering the second by default. So focus on the first question and then ask yourself this: what you are willing to do each day to maintain your connection to the market? Your personal daily circumstances as well as your emotional commitment and discipline should guide you to generate a reasonable answer. With those inputs, you can then decide whether you allocate 30 minutes a day or 30 minutes a week. (more…)

Six One Liners for Traders

“Don’t trade just because you can afford to lose.” 

 “Practice makes perfect is an old copybook adage that works well in the market place.”

 “If a trade fails to come out right, the error will be found in the operator-not the market.”

  “Trading is simple another form of business.  Treat it as such.”

  “Trend to the investor is like the vein of gold to the miner, who must follow the vein faithfully if he expects to get the yellow metal.”

 “Stocks are made to buy and sell…not to be bought and held.”

Women and The Market

1.) I suggest that one pays attention to the stocks that could care less if they are purchased or traded. The quiet ones. The non volatile ones.(the best, most stable women are thriving and so busy enjoying their lives they don’t really worry about being snagged, they have more men in pursuit than they can usually manage or have time for.) They are the best catches. They don’t dress to necessarily impress or seduce, they don’t have to.

2.) If the idea of competition stirs interest, don’t get seduced, investors might merely be competing with each other when they should be focused on learning about how the market moves and what she needs at the moment. The male or investor might miss something big being divulged or demonstrated when he worries about the competition. The conversation/connection with the woman or the market must be sustained fully.

3.) Men can NEVER be caught. Men fall in love first. If a woman tips her hand in this regard she is done. Men are suspect if something comes too easily. Unless he’s a narcissist and imagines that he is irresistible or invincible. It doesn’t hit him immediately that he has to have her. If a stock gains lots of attention it will probably lose it’s momentum soon and is probably just flirting with you or using you to create competition for the man she truly wants. Real interest from a woman is steady and climbs deliberately, carefully, without much frenzy. Watch out for those stocks and when you find one commit.

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