China total yuan deposits: CNY190 trillion ($27 trillion), more than double the US. Total US deposits: $12 trillion.
Archives of “Investment” tag
rssHere is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today – almost bare
2350GMT will bring data on weekly flows of securities (stocks/bonds bought/sold) from Japan.
Upon release these tend to have a negligible impact on forex (unless there is some reason for the market to be focused on them at the time).
Apart from some info due from South Korea and Singapore that’s about it.
Saudi Arabia has already brought 40% of production back on line and rest could be back by month-end
Report from Energy Intelligence
This is less-bullish for oil:
“Industry sources told Energy Intelligence that 40% of the lost production had already been restored by Monday, while one source said national oil company Saudi Aramco expects most of the rest — more than 3 million b/d — to be brought back on line by the end of September.”
More:
“Industry sources said that by Monday a combined 2.3 million b/d of oil production had been brought back on line — 2 million b/d at Abqaiq and 300,000 b/d at Khurais.
Industry sources said Aramco would seek to keep up oil deliveries to its customers by drawing down oil it holds in storage, while also offering crude grade swaps and maximizing output from its offshore fields.”
WTI is up $7.70 to $62.56 — about 80-cents from the highs. Read the full report here.
quotations and euphemisms from : Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
- It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.
- I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, Well, you know this is a bull market! he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape, but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.
- The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.
- The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground. We love volatility and days like the one in which the stock market took a big plunge, for being on the right side of moving markets is what makes us money. A stagnant market in any commodity, such as grain has experienced recently, means there’s no opportunity for us to make money.
- A man will risk half his fortune in the stock market with less reflection than he devotes to the selection of a medium-priced automobile.
US stocks edge up to new records as investors eye earnings season
Wall Street notched fresh record highs in cautious trading on Monday as investors awaited the first onslaught of quarterly earnings reports.
The S&P 500 bounced off session lows seen in afternoon trading to gain about half a point at 3,014.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.1 per cent higher, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2 per cent.
The modest rally extended a record run on Wall Street that was fuelled last week by expectations for looser monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. The benchmark S&P 500 secured its third closing high in as many sessions, while the Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq set records for a second consecutive day.
Citigroup offered the opening salvo in a busy week of bank earnings. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo will file on Tuesday. Bank of America’s financials will arrive a day later.
Citi’s shares fell 0.1 per cent, paring a gain of 1.5 per cent made last week in the run-up to its numbers.
A number of further corporate reports due throughout the week will start to reveal if the US is on course for its first earnings recession since 2016, playing into investors’ perceptions of the outlook for the economy as the Trump administration’s trade dispute with Beijing continues.
Growth data from China published on Monday showed the country’s rate of quarterly expansion was its slowest in 27 years at 6.2 per cent, but there was relief that the tariff battle between the world’s two biggest economies had not taken a deeper toll on the data.
Early gains on Wall Street helped European bourses consolidate gains after an uncertain showing in the region. The international Stoxx 600 rose 0.2 per cent.
Frankfurt’s Xetra 30 was up 0.5 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2 per cent, with its gains underpinned by miners.
64 points : Traders Reality Wisdom
Knowledge only becomes wisdom if it is transferred and applied. I have compiled 65 of the best
tweets that focus on the psychology of trading. This is beneficial for those who would rather refer
to this document in their spare time, maybe print it off and have it near their trading desk?
Enjoy…
1. It’s so important to understand what is meant by failure? Failure occurs when you lack
knowledge, even if you have the knowledge and still fail…well I guess determination and
perseverance come into play.
2. If you are prepared to study an indicators entry and exit criteria, why would you assume
that is all that is needed to make money. Pay more attention to the function of how the
market works. Then you will realise that indicators alone are not sustainable.
3. You have to build calluses in your mind. The tough conditioning of losses builds a
character that eventually develops a discipline of awareness and embraces uncertainty.
Train your mind to lose, perform to win…
4. The development of a irrational trading mind starts with the traders lack of conviction on
their preferred trading personality. It’s paramount to your progression that you establish
your trading personality.
5. Most new traders are back testing how their method will perform. Most new traders
neglect to train the mind which = emotional imbalances?
6. A Trader that boasts of his victories, tends to be hiding his losses. Entertain the Trader
that talks of losses for he has been humbled.
7. I used to take losses and be angry. Then I accepted one important element in trading. I
HAVE NO CONTROL OF UNCERTAINTY.
8. Believe Me When I Tell You…Unless You Accept Uncertainty, You Will Forever Have
Expectations That Will Lead You To Losses. Learn Acceptance.
9. Some Are Happy To Accept Reality Of Being Correct But Not If Wrong. This Battle In Our
Mind Will Forever Obstruct Our Progression as Traders
10. Losses are Gold to every trader.
11. An Old Saying Can Be Related To This “Observe Your Enemies (Emotions) They
Highlight Your Faults.
12. Many Hide From Losses. Little Do They Know, Losses Are The Key To Changing And
Becoming Aware Of What Needs To Be Done To Improve.
13. Trade for the moment, for the dwelling on expectation of a move is sure to upset and
damage Trading moral.
14. The market will never teach you how to win. It will teach you how to become one with
your mind. The battle is in our minds
15. Never Start Your Trading Week Convincing Yourself How Much Money You Are Going
To Make. Focus On Trading Well. The Money Will Come…
16. Rule Of Sales: Customer Is Always Right Rule Of Trading: Market Is Always Right!
17. Taking Time Away From The Markets Creates Transparency In Your Mind To Correct
Behaviours That Sabotaged Your Trading
18. Your philosophy is the determining factor to your trading success
19. The minute that we change our minds and stop giving power to the past, the with its
mistakes loses power over us.
20. Our brains use biological mechanisms to translate expectations of what we want to
perceive…Manage these mechanisms to trade mindfully.
21. Why Get Mad If Your Indicators Give You A False Signal? There Is No Indicator That
Factors The Unknown.
22. Never be excited to trade…This will set you up to avoid taking losses…More importantly
feeding The Ego.
23. It is through adversity, are you then able to reset your mind and focus on forming new
habits to overcome the self limiting beliefs.
24. There’s no greater wisdom than of those who tell you not to make a mistake.I guess the
smart learns from himself.The wise learns from others.
25. The only factors that MM rely on is Fear and greed of retail traders. Not to forget that they
make the market. So they can see all orders and simply send price in that direction to get
their orders filled
26. Does your imagination as a profitable trader hinder your approach to trading
successfully? Do not be fooled by short term success.
27. A Trader Will Continue To Encounter The Dark Perils Of Trading… It Is Only When He
Accepts That He Is Allowed To Be Wrong, He Is Then Free
28. Trading is about the expression of one’s character to manage their behaviour through the
chaos of the financial markets. Only when he is one with his mind he expresses his true
ability as a mindful trader
29. Let’s Face It…Trading Is Like This…Some Will, Some Won’t, So What!!!! Next Trade. If
you understand this…You free your mind of expectation
30. It’s Really About Taking Your Profits And Accepting Your Losses. Everything Else That
Intervenes Is Bad For The Trading Soul.
31. Trading Safely Is Like The Habit Of Driving Safely, Always Pay Attention, Whether You
Are Angry Or Happy, You Still Have To Drive (Trade) Safely. Habit Will Protect Your Car
(Capital)
32. Results orientated: in poker, you have no control of the outcome of the flop. You only
have the strength of your hand to go by. Acceptance and understanding of variance
sustains longevity. This is no different in trading
33. The beauty of trading is this. The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender.
34. The only way you can really apply yourself when taking a trade is to not care…how do
you do it? Simple. Practise…like driving a car. Are you continuously conscious of
changing gears? No. Subconsciously you do it without hesitation. It’s the only way to
move forward.
35. Anyone that enters into the realm of trading usually has the perspective of “me against
the market”…The true reality is, it’s “ I Against I” before you confront the battle of trading,
confront the battle in your mind.
36. A mistake that traders make, one that took me a while to overcome was once I entered a
position,I turned from a trader into an investor…Biggest mistake you can make. If your
position is losing, get out, don’t “ride it” in hope it will return. Waiting to break even costs
money.
37. Trading same way you would on a roulette table: 1) you bet/trade 2) your number
hits/trade is profitable 3) you take your winnings/close trade. So why would you allow a
winning trade to turn into a loss. Take whatever is given by the market. You never knew it
would be a winner.
38. Admitting that you lose is the first step to transitioning as to why you lose. Many traders,
even myself, have struggled with accepting this. It’s only when enough money is lost that
you then decide, “to survive in this game, I have to accept it’s OK to be wrong”
39. When you decide to not allow your conflicts of the mind deter you from making
systematic and objective decisions, you will be taking the first step to becoming a trade
40. Once you detach from the money. You then become a trader. A trader thrives on the
process not the result. Being results oriented most likely guarantees expectations, which
definitely guarantees upsets and mistakes.
41. Many will learn from their mistakes, but few focus and study their behaviour when they
were right…Learning from mistakes saves you money…Learning from your wins, makes
you money.
42. A Retrace. The idea behind it is “oh it needs a break” or “it’s taking a breath”…that’s what
the MM want you to think. A retrace is a stop hunt for the market makers to suck in as
much liquidity as they can to fill their orders.Don’t be fooled.
43. When you learn to detach from what the market is fooling you to believe, you are then in
a position to take advantage of the market makers momentum. Get in and get out. The
market is no place for heros. You will get slaughtered.
44. The mind is a great thing. Funny how you place a trade and then all of a sudden the entry
you took does not seem to align with your analysis? Hindsight does that to you. But we
can avoid this by simply accepting what is and not focus on what it could be.
45. There were days when I felt compelled to trade. This was because I had FOMO. Fear of
missing out mindset is guaranteed to make you successfully lose each time you enter
into the market with this way of thinking. Cash is a position too.
46. If you really want to succeed in this game, you have to let go my friends. This game takes
no prisoners. It doesn’t care if you have £1m account or £1, to the market, it’s liquidity,
they will take it from you. Unless you learn to play the game.
47. The great thing about trading is, you only need to be right 50% of the time..there are
traders that are right less than 50% of the time and are profitable.???Money
Management and Mind Management
48. Be aware of the FOMC. This is a passport for the market makers to really take out areas
of liquidity for their own gain. If you have profited from today’s movements. Great…Don’t
give it back. Let the Dumb money get swallowed.
49. At some point you will develop the skill set to be able to close a losing position and re
enter. Avoid being results oriented, focus on the process of execution, if done correctly,
the results will always be positive.
50. Your objective as a trader is to survive. If you trade and win, great…Next trade. If you
lose and lose small, great…Next trade. It really is all about the process of entry to exit
and simplifying this behaviour by managing your emotional imbalances.
51. Avoid thinking like the herd. It pays to really focus on the behaviour of the one who
controls the herd. Then you will have you answer.
52. You will only improve your trading if you allow yourself to. The same way stands if you
close a losing position when your rules tell you too and close a winning position when
your rules tell you too. Become me aware of your behaviour, then you can grow.
53. It’s nothing to be afraid of…Losses are indefinite in this game…Just aim to keep them
small
54. Trading is all about gathering the wisdom of those who are prepared to share their
losses, their wins and determination to find the balance with their mind.
55. Who cares if you made a call and said price would hit a certain price area, are you a
genius? Have you developed a flawless consistently profitable indicator? Who cares!
Demonstrate your ability to manage risk effectively before you claim the title of “Trader”
56. If you feel the market is out to get you…your right…but the flip side, the market can be
very rewarding, it’s all down to perspective and mindset.
57. Don’t fool yourself into thinking that the current trade you have is the final one. There will
always be tomorrow.
58. It’s no secret, the market makers will manipulate price.They can also manipulate your
mind. If your thinking is irrationally based, then this is your greatest adversary. Fix your
thinking…Then you will see trading for what it is
59. I guess the greatest tool to a trader is a drawdown….this exposes you, to your faults and
thoughts. Using a drawdown can be advantageous and help you improve your trading.
Drawdowns happen regardless. It’s what you decide to take from each one.
60. If there is one thing I can share with everyone. If your trading. Always Always Always pay
yourself…This game is about longevity
61. So you are left with a zero account after you had received margin call on a position to
only see it be closed out…the irony is, the moment you placed the trade, your mind said
“that’s too much”, but greed stepped in…be systematic, not impulsive
62. I guess the key to trading successfully is to accept that you have no idea how the market
will behave…However, have a very clear vision of how much money you are willing to
risk. Always make money management your priority
63. Always always protect yourself…I guess the #science of boxing and trading are really no
different. The battle you must overcome is the battle of ” I Against I”
64. There is no indicator that will manage your emotions during trading. However, executing
a plan, without hesitation will eliminate you responding emotionally to any circumstance that arises in the market
Avoid the pitfalls of ‘over trading’ and ‘under trading.’
* There are basically two types of over trading. Trading too often and trading too many shares/contracts.
* Remember that there really is no good reason to trade constantly, since extreme over-trading creates stress, produces high commissions and can often lead to more losses.
* Market forces do not last forever and time has shown various examples of the law of gravity in the trading market- that whatever comes up must go down. – and vice versa.
* Instead of grabbing every opportunity that comes along (or thinking that it is an opportunity) make sure each trade setup meets the criteria of your trading plan, don’t be over confident or scared of making trades.
* Utilizing a risk calculator to determine the appropriate position size before you enter a trade can help you determine how many shares/contracts you initially buy. You can start off with a small position and add as the trade continues in your favor. It relieves stress to know that the amount at risk for each position you hold is well proportioned to the size of your entire account and this is great asset management.
* Whenever you feel that you did not stick to your trading plan and made a mistake, quickly learn from that and let it go.
RISK MANAGEMENT
1.Never enter a trade before you know where you will exit if proven wrong.
2. First find the right stop loss level that will show you that you’re wrong about a trade then set your positions size based on that price level.
3. Focus like a laser on how much capital can be lost on any trade first before you enter not on how much profit you could make.
4. Structure your trades through position sizing and stop losses so you never lose more than 1% of your trading capital on one losing trade.
5. Never expose your trading account to more than 5% total risk at any one time.
6. Understand the nature of volatility and adjust your position size for the increased risk with volatility spikes.
7. Never, ever, ever, add to a losing trade. Eventually that will destroy your trading account when you eventually fight the wrong trend.
8. All your trades should end in one of four ways: a small win, a big win, a small loss, or break even, but never a big loss. If you can get rid of big losses you have a great chance of eventually trading success.
9. Be incredibly stubborn in your risk management rules don’t give up an inch. Defense wins championships in sports and profits in trading.
10. Most of the time trailing stops are more profitable than profit targets. We need the big wins to pay for the losing trades. Trends tend to go farther than anyone anticipates.
10 Things Traders Must Quantify
- What exactly is your entry signal going to be? What technical indicators will trigger you to enter a trade?
- What will the perceived edge for your entries be based on? Will you quantify your entries edge with back testing of through trading principles?
- Will you wait for an initial move in the direction of your trade entry or will you enter based on a technical indicator trigger?
- How will you trade in different market environments and trends? Will you have better odds of success buying dips in bull markets and shorting strength in down trends?
- What is the risk/reward ratio for the trade you want to take? How much are you willing to risk if the trade is a loser? How much could you make if you are right? Is it worth it?
- What are the probabilities that this entry will be a winning trade based on past historical price data and charts? With the winning percentage in mind how big do the winners have to be and how small do you have to keep the losers for the trading system to be profitable?
- Where should your stop loss be? At what price level will your entry be wrong and signal you to exit the trade with a loss?
- How big of a position size should you take based on your stop level and total capital you are willing to risk on this one trade?
- Is your position size small enough to enable you to hold the trade without emotions effecting your ability to follow your trading plan?
- When you open this trade in addition to your other positions, how much of your total trading capital is now exposed to loss if all trades went against you at the same time?
Zweig: Questions to Ask Your Financial Adviser
I hate when Jason Zweig takes an idea I had kicking around in my head, then does a better job with it than I would have.
That was my reaction to reading his The 19 Questions to Ask Your Financial Adviser.
Here are a few of his key questions — and answers — from the 19:
1. Are you always a fiduciary, and will you state that in writing? (Yes.)
2. Does anybody else ever pay you to advise me and, if so, do you earn more to recommend certain products or services? (No.)
8. Do you earn fees as adviser to a private fund or other investments that you may recommend to clients? (No.)
11. Do you earn fees for referring clients to specialists like estate attorneys or insurance agents? (No.)
12. What is your investment philosophy?
15. How often do you trade? (As seldom as possible, ideally once or twice a year at most.)
19. Who manages your money? (I do, and I invest in the same assets I recommend to clients.)
There are one or two in Jason’s full list I can find small quibbles with — e.g., I believe all similar clients should pay the same fees (#5), and intellectually, I understand why trend and technicals are worthwhile for traders (#13) but on the whole it is a very solid set of rules.
Note Zweig will be at the Evidence Based Investing conference in NYC on November 2nd; you can find out more about it here.